Pace Forecast: Weak
Draw Bias (Not applicable over jumps)
Pace Angle: Likely steady gallop may disadvantage hold-up runners like Donnie Azoff and favour those racing prominently like Finisk River and Lipa K.


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Leading Contenders & Race Preview

DONNIE AZOFF (Trainer: Jamie Snowden | Jockey: Gavin Sheehan)
Progressive hurdler who caught the eye when third in a higher grade at Market Rasen, staying on well despite the steady tempo. Likely better suited by the drop in class and should benefit from a stronger gallop. Proven on good to firm ground, and trainer in hot form. Looks progressive, though could be pace-compromised if the tempo is again steady.

LIPA K (Trainer: Greenall & Guerriero | Jockey: Henry Brooke)
Course specialist who gamely landed a C&D handicap in June. Rated 112 but has form to suggest he remains competitive. Could control the race from the front or just off the pace. Has won here over both hurdles and fences and acts well on quick ground. Not obviously well treated but ticks several suitability boxes.

EVENWOOD SONOFAGUN (Trainer: Lizzie Quinlan | Jockey: Sean Quinlan)
Back-to-back Cartmel wins in late May. Slightly shorter break here (37 days) but fresh enough to be considered. Up 5 lb for last win and has stamina in abundance. Likely to be up with the pace and in form. Trainer’s solo runners at track are profitable historically.

INTERESTING OUTSIDERS
PRESENTANDCOUNTING – Veteran chaser back hurdling, front runner who may benefit from a lack of early pace. Has class but not obviously well handicapped on recent evidence and age may be catching up.
FINISK RIVER – C&D winner returning after 220 days off. Suited by this course and race likely to play to his strengths pace-wise, but profile suggests he’s vulnerable to younger/more progressive sorts.
WUDYA – Irish maiden winner pulled up on sole UK start since. Changed yards a few times. Possibly regressive or needs a confidence boost. Could bounce back, but hard to trust.


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Suitability Ratings (Out of 10)

Horse Going Field Size Pace Draw Class Track Distance Temperament Trainer Jockey Score

Donnie Azoff 9 9 6 – 8 7 9 7 8 9 72
Lipa K 9 9 8 – 7 10 9 8 7 7 74
Evenwood Sonofagun 8 9 8 – 6 7 9 8 7 8 70
Presentandcounting 7 8 8 – 6 7 9 6 8 9 68
Finisk River 8 8 9 – 6 9 8 7 8 7 70
Wudya 6 7 6 – 5 6 8 6 5 6 61



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Private Tissue Estimate

1. Lipa K – 2/1


2. Donnie Azoff – 5/2


3. Evenwood Sonofagun – 9/2


4. Presentandcounting – 8/1


5. Finisk River – 10/1


6. Wudya – 25/1




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Summary

This is a weakly-run handicap likely to suit those prominent or leading. Lipa K has a strong course profile, handles the ground, and may get the run of things again. Donnie Azoff is the class angle but needs a stronger pace than likely. Evenwood Sonofagun is in top form but now has a higher mark to contend with.


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Smart Play – Selections

Win: LIPA K – Proven over C&D, acts on the ground, trainer in form.
Saver (if 3 places paid): DONNIE AZOFF – Progressive, class dropper, potential to outclass if pace isn’t too slow.