Pace Forecast: Even
Draw Bias: Favours low numbers – especially prominent or tracking types from stalls 1 to 5.
Pace Angles: UNDEFEATABLE and WHATS NEW are better placed than the likes of VERVAIN or ELVETHAM, who may find themselves too far back early.


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Contenders Analysis

Top Contenders

CASHELDALE LASS – Proven and coming off a dominant 5½-length win in a similar event at Gowran. Races prominently, ideal for this pace/draw setup. Up 7 lb, but showed a good turn of foot and stays the trip well. Ground suits.

WHATS NEW – Progressive, should improve for the step up to 10f. Ran into traffic last time behind Casheldale Lass. A likely improver and well drawn in stall 12 if he can get across.

ELVETHAM – Consistent with some solid efforts in better races. Trainer in top form. Will need some luck from off the pace and may find this slightly sharp if they don’t go hard.

LISNADILL – Promising run behind Casheldale Lass last time when slowly away and staying on late. Extra distance a plus.


Main Dangers

UNDEFEATABLE – Proven form and track position could be ideal, but latest run was disappointing. Recovered quickly from that and may bounce back.


Interesting Outsiders

MISCHIEF MAN – Didn’t get a clear run behind Casheldale Lass, and trainer Johnny Murtagh is in flying form.

BLACKJACK HILLS – Took a small step forward last time and gets a handy draw to track the pace.


Hold-Up Risks Needing Luck in Running

ELVETHAM

VERVAIN

LISNADILL

MISCHIEF MAN


Trainer Watch

A. Slattery (trains WHATS NEW) has a good record with first-time headgear.

D.K. Weld and J.P. Murtagh runners always merit respect at Naas.

T.G. McCourt is cold currently (trains CHURCHILL GALE, WASITTHEWAY, GODDAUGHTER).



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Suitability Ratings (/10)

Horse Suitability Score

Casheldale Lass 9 – Proven at trip/ground, front-runner, low draw, improving
Whats New 8 – Better than latest, trip suits, front-runner
Elvetham 7 – Capable but draw and running style may work against him
Lisnadill 7 – Forgive prior runs, step up suits, pace/position a risk
Undefeatable 7 – Should be well placed, not fully convincing
Mischief Man 6 – Unlucky last time, trainer red-hot
Amavasya 6 – Consistent type, needs to progress again
Blackjack Hills 5 – One-paced, might need help up front
Vervain 4 – Trip should suit but poorly placed tactically
Wasittheway 3 – Well beaten last time, out of form
Churchill Gale 2 – Off 10 months, little support in form
Galaxy Wonder 2 – No encouragement yet
Wellwhatshappenin 1 – 155-day layoff, poor past form
Goddaughter 1 – Outclassed
Miss Americana 1 – No indication of ability yet



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Private Tissue Estimate (Win Market)

Casheldale Lass – 3/1

Whats New – 9/2

Elvetham – 6/1

Lisnadill – 13/2

Undefeatable – 13/2

Mischief Man – 10/1

Amavasya – 12/1

Blackjack Hills – 16/1

Vervain – 20/1

Wasittheway – 40/1

Churchill Gale – 50/1

Galaxy Wonder – 50/1

Goddaughter – 100/1

Miss Americana – 100/1

Wellwhatshappenin – 100/1



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Summary + Smart Play

Race Overview:
Casheldale Lass sets the standard off a clear-cut victory, racing prominently and relishing good ground. Whats New could well reverse that form with a better run and extra distance, while Elvetham and Lisnadill appeal for place purposes. Watch for Mischief Man at longer odds if market support comes.

Smart Play:
Win – Casheldale Lass (Proven, tactically ideal, good timefigure)
Each-Way – Whats New (Progressive profile, unlucky last time)