Race Conditions: An ultra-competitive low-grade handicap with a €12,000 pot. With 15 declared runners and a very strong pace forecast, stamina, track position, and the ability to quicken off a strong tempo are all crucial.

Pace & Draw Angles: A truly run race is predicted, likely favouring those drawn high and who can sit just off the early burn-up. This setup looks ideal for closers like YOU PLAYED WELL and SPINNING WEB, while BEER WITH THE BOYS is at risk of being swamped.


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Strongest Contenders:

ITSALONGLONGROAD (TFR 57+)
C&D winner in 2024 and solid second here over fences last month. Usually makes the running, but has the class edge and handles the course extremely well. Drawn high in stall 12. Suitability score: 8.5/10

SPINNING WEB (TFR 62)
Proven over the trip, lightly raced for a 5yo, and hinted at a return to form over hurdles. Drawn perfectly in stall 15 to pounce late off the furious pace. Seamie Heffernan booked. Suitability score: 8/10

DOLCE FAR NIENTE (TFR 57)
Progressive profile with recent Fairyhouse win and solid follow-up effort. Needs to prove stamina but stepping up in trip looks a logical move. Significant trainer stats for this scenario. Suitability score: 7.5/10


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Others to Note:

STEPDANCE (TFR 60) – Off since September, but credible all-weather efforts and potentially well handicapped. Wide draw (13) suits his style. Fitness a question. Suitability score: 7/10

YOU PLAYED WELL (TFR 55) – Unexposed and may be suited by this test with the strong pace helping his hold-up style. Trainer remains under the radar. Suitability score: 6.5/10

YOUR HONOR (TFR ?) – Once promising, but regressed significantly. Some ability remains but tough to trust now. Suitability score: 6/10

ANJAH (TFR ?) – First run back after a win on AW. Needed last outing and could improve sharply here. Suitability score: 6/10


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Runners with Temperament or Pace Draw Mismatch:

BEER WITH THE BOYS – Better with a soft lead. This race is all wrong tactically. Suitability score: 4.5/10

WINGED VICTORY, LADY LEANORA, ARTHUR’S VICTORY, SYNCHRONIZE, TARTARAGHAN – Low TFRs and poor profiles. Very hard to fancy in a race like this. Suitability score: 3–5/10



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Suitability Ratings (out of 10):

Horse Suitability

Itsalonglongroad 8.5
Spinning Web 8
Dolce Far Niente 7.5
Stepdance 7
You Played Well 6.5
Your Honor 6
Anjah 6
Beer With The Boys 4.5
Others 3–5



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Private Tissue Estimate:

Itsalonglongroad – 4/1

Spinning Web – 9/2

Dolce Far Niente – 11/2

Stepdance – 6/1

You Played Well – 8/1

Your Honor – 10/1

Anjah – 12/1

Beer With The Boys – 20/1

Others – 25/1+



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Summary:

A highly competitive renewal of the Tramore Derby Handicap. The key is the very strong pace and high draw bias, which shifts favour to closers. ITSALONGLONGROAD has been kept ticking over with hurdles and fences and is proven at the course and trip. SPINNING WEB lurks on a good mark and is well positioned to strike late.


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Smart Play (Professional Punter’s View):

Win Bet: ITSALONGLONGROAD – form, draw and track suitability in his favour.
Each-Way Saver: SPINNING WEB – drawn to pounce and lightly raced over staying trips.