Race Conditions: A €7,800 handicap over 2 miles, attracting older stayers and versatile jumpers switching codes. With a weak pace forecast, race positioning will be pivotal—those who sit handy or can quicken will hold an advantage.

Pace & Draw Angles: Weak pace anticipated. Hold-up runners like LORD ERSKINE and DROP THE ANCHOR may struggle to get involved unless the pace unexpectedly lifts. This setup should favour the likes of MAKAIAH, OH SO CHARMING, and EMPRESS ALMA—all of whom can race handily.


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Strongest Contenders:

MAKAIAH (TFR 85)
Improving 4yo with a strong staying profile. Consistent this season and unlucky not to score last time when mugged late. Well positioned pace-wise and trained by an in-form yard. Proven at the trip and still progressing. Suitability score: 9/10

LORD ERSKINE (TFR 87+)
Proven class act, recent winner over hurdles, but often needs a strong pace to be seen to best effect. Weak pace forecast is a negative. The apprentice claim helps and he has won this race in 2023. Suitability score: 7.5/10

EMPRESS ALMA (TFR 82)
Improving stayer who has had excuses on recent starts. Better judged on earlier spring form. Can race close up and stays well. Trainer cold but horse remains of interest. Suitability score: 7.5/10


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Other Contenders:

OH SO CHARMING (TFR 82) – Front runner who could benefit from the lack of pace. Flat form patchy but arrives off a hurdles win. Tends to trade short and fade late, though. Suitability score: 7/10

SEQUOIASPIRIT (TFR 84) – Long-distance specialist, may lack tactical speed in a steadily-run affair. Often better with more cut. Suitability score: 6.5/10

DROP THE ANCHOR (TFR 78+) – Well handicapped on old form and recent hurdles win shows he’s not done yet. Tactically vulnerable here. Suitability score: 6.5/10

MISS GITANA (TFR 85) – Back on the Flat after solid UK form. Gordon Elliott runners always demand respect, but has shown little in Ireland so far. Trip may stretch her. Suitability score: 6/10

WALKING ON GLASS (TFR 83) – Capable dual-purpose horse but may be a run short of peak. No obvious tactical edge. Suitability score: 6/10

CURIOUS BRIDE (TFR 85) – Best efforts on the AW, regressing of late, and needs resurgence. Trip is fine but pace setup not ideal. Suitability score: 5.5/10


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Suitability Ratings (out of 10):

Horse Suitability

Makaiah 9
Lord Erskine 7.5
Empress Alma 7.5
Oh So Charming 7
Sequoiaspirit 6.5
Drop the Anchor 6.5
Miss Gitana 6
Walking On Glass 6
Curious Bride 5.5



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Private Tissue Estimate:

Makaiah – 3/1

Lord Erskine – 9/2

Empress Alma – 6/1

Oh So Charming – 13/2

Sequoiaspirit – 8/1

Drop the Anchor – 9/1

Miss Gitana – 10/1

Walking On Glass – 14/1

Curious Bride – 20/1



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Summary:

A tactical stayers’ handicap where the key factor is the anticipated weak pace. MAKAIAH is ideally placed to take advantage of this scenario, having shown consistent late-spring form and still being on an upward curve. LORD ERSKINE is a classy sort who may be undone by race tempo, while EMPRESS ALMA retains potential back up in trip.


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Smart Play (Professional Punter’s View):

Win Bet: Makaiah – well placed to strike off a likely dawdle, form is progressive and yard is hot.
Each-Way Saver: Empress Alma – excuses lately, can travel well and pounce late off modest tempo.