PACE & DRAW ANGLES:

A weak pace is forecast, which often hands the initiative to the better-drawn, handier types.

Lower stalls are preferred here, and Raedwald (drawn 1) is ideally positioned for a tactical ride.

Horses that need pace to aim at (Boston Run, War Supremo) could find things against them.



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STRONGEST CONTENDERS:

RAEDWALD (86): Improved markedly for the step up to 10f on handicap debut, dead-heating at Lingfield and pulling clear with another. Gets a soft lead setup here, is drawn best, and is progressive.

LONE PIPER (85): Solid form at 10f, and looked stretched at 12f last time. Good record when dropped back in trip and has the tools to be a strong threat.

SALAMANCA CITY (83): Won on seasonal debut but not at that level last time. More effective on sounder surfaces and may bounce back here if settling better.

WAR SUPREMO (84): Consistent prior to blowing out at Ripon (pulled hard). Must settle better but has ability and soft ground may not have helped then.



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INTERESTING OUTSIDERS:

DIVINE LEGACY (82): Lightly raced and bred to improve for middle distances. Below form last time but shaped well at Redcar before that and has potential in calmer waters.

TYPICAL WOMAN (84): Reliable mare when conditions suit, but current form patchy. On a fair mark if returning to her best.

LORDSBRIDGE BLU (79+): Has dropped in the weights and shaped OK last time. Lightly raced on turf and could go well from stall 10 if pace is stronger than forecast.



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SUITABILITY MARKS (Out of 10):

Horse Track Distance Going Total

Raedwald 9 9 9 27
Lone Piper 8 9 8 25
Salamanca City 8 9 7 24
War Supremo 7 9 8 24
Divine Legacy 7 8 8 23
Lordsbridge Blu 6 9 7 22
Boston Run 6 8 7 21
Typical Woman 6 8 7 21
Emery Down 5 7 6 18
Coppersmith 5 7 6 18



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WHO IS PROVEN, PROGRESSIVE OR PROMISING?

Proven: Lone Piper, Salamanca City, Typical Woman

Progressive: Raedwald, Divine Legacy

Promising: War Supremo (if he learns to settle)



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PRIVATE TISSUE ESTIMATE:

Raedwald – 3/1

Lone Piper – 9/2

War Supremo – 5/1

Salamanca City – 6/1

Divine Legacy – 8/1

Lordsbridge Blu – 12/1

Others 14/1+



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SUMMARY:

This has the look of a tactical race, with Raedwald holding both a draw and pace advantage in a small field. He’s unexposed at this trip and shaped like he had more to come last time. Lone Piper is the main danger on known form back to his optimum distance. War Supremo needs to settle better to fulfil promise, while Divine Legacy remains of interest.


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SMART PLAY:

Win Bet – RAEDWALD (progressive, tactically suited, good draw)

Each-Way Saver – LONE PIPER (proven at trip, well handicapped)