Pace & Race Shape:

With an even forecast pace and no clear draw bias, prominent racers will be favoured at this turning 6f track, especially on good ground. Horses that like to sit up with the pace—such as Muscika and Scarboroughwarning—look well positioned. Hold-up types like Spanish Star may need gaps to appear at the right time.


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Key Contenders:

KISSKODI [87]: Three-year-old rapidly improving, now a two-time winner who was awarded the race last time after encountering traffic. Strong traveller, and despite going up the weights, is a danger to all. 8/10

SPANISH STAR [88]: Veteran returned to form with a commanding win at Newbury, always talented but reliant on a strong pace and a clear passage. Capable off this mark but needs things to fall right. 7/10

SCARBOROUGHWARNING [86]: Consistent, strong finisher, has shaped well in recent outings and is proven on a variety of surfaces. With Luke Morris on, expect another solid performance. 7/10

SHIPLAKE [84p]: Only three career starts, improving fast and showed signs of greenness last time. Still learning but clearly has ability and remains with significant potential. 7/10



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Dangers and Value Runners:

DANGER ALERT [80]: Better than recent form suggests. Capable off current mark but not the most straightforward. Watch market. 5/10

MUSCIKA [85]: Former C&D winner, eleven now but can still surprise when things go his way. Not out of it if bouncing back. 5/10

LERWICK [82]: Hasn’t shown enough this year and looks a shade outclassed. 4/10

SOUTH SHORE ISLAND [?]: Has regressed and failed to fire for new stable. Looks risky despite past promise. 3/10



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Ratings (Track/Trip/Form/Ground/Pace Fit out of 10):

Horse Suitability Rating

KISSKODI 8
SCARBOROUGHWARNING 7
SPANISH STAR 7
SHIPLAKE 7
MUSCIKA 5
DANGER ALERT 5
LERWICK 4
SOUTH SHORE ISLAND 3



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Private Tissue Estimate:

Kisskodi 10/3

Shiplake 7/2

Spanish Star 4/1

Scarboroughwarning 5/1

Danger Alert 10/1

Muscika 12/1

Lerwick 20/1

South Shore Island 25/1



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Summary:

A fairly open sprint where KISSKODI’s current upward curve gives him an edge, while SCARBOROUGHWARNING and SPANISH STAR are strong alternatives depending on race shape. SHIPLAKE is very promising but still learning. Market support for Muscika could be meaningful given his course record.


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Smart Play:

WIN – KISSKODI (Proven, progressive, well positioned)
E/W – SCARBOROUGHWARNING (Consistent, suited to the setup, solid form lines)

Watch the betting for SHIPLAKE and Muscika – both could spike with late support.