Pace Angles:

The likely weak pace will favour prominent or handy racers. Clermont Ferrand and Golden Phase profile best for the expected scenario. Double Red, a strong closer, could be at a disadvantage if they crawl early.


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Key Contenders:

Double Red (84 TFR) – Back from a short break chasing a hat-trick. Looked a different horse at Nottingham in the spring, winning decisively twice. However, weak pace could blunt his late run, and this tighter track might not suit ideally. Still on the upgrade. 8/10

Clermont Ferrand (83 TFR) – Lightly raced and unexposed 4yo now going handicapping off a fair mark. The setup suits, and Shoemark should have him in a good tactical spot. 8/10

Giselles Defence (81 TFR) – Strong stayer who returns to the track she won at last year. Solid form lately with a place at Chester. Needs a stronger pace ideally but tough and consistent. 7.5/10

Lunario (81 TFR) – Often slowly away, but went close at Newmarket earlier this summer. The form has some substance, but he’s better when coming late off an even tempo. 7/10

Fast Steps (82 TFR) – C&D winner who has placed twice this term at Windsor and Haydock. Inconsistent but runs well here and capable of hitting the frame. 6.5/10



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Others:

Golden Phase (79 TFR) – Controlled a weak race from the front last time; might find this tougher off revised mark in more competitive heat. 6/10

Chourmo (82 TFR) – Up-and-down type who was well backed but soundly beaten last time. Better judged on Brighton/Newmarket wins. 5.5/10

Holy Smoker (72 TFR) – Lightly raced 3yo with limited form. Hard to fancy unless market vibes are strong. 4/10

Dayzee (80 TFR) – Poor recent runs and temperament doubts. Needs a revival. 3.5/10



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Private Tissue Estimate (100% Book):

Double Red – 4/1

Clermont Ferrand – 9/2

Giselles Defence – 6/1

Lunario – 7/1

Fast Steps – 8/1

Golden Phase – 10/1

Chourmo – 12/1

Holy Smoker – 16/1

Dayzee – 33/1



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Summary:

The race lacks pace and could turn tactical, potentially disadvantaging some stronger stayers. Clermont Ferrand is now entering handicaps with scope and looks suited by the likely setup. Double Red remains the proven improver but might find this scenario trickier.


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Smart Play:

Win Bet – Clermont Ferrand (unexposed, will be well placed tactically)
Each-Way Saver – Double Red (proven, progressive type but pace risk)