Pace Angles:

This looks a steadily run contest which will favour strong finishers. Jimmy Mark and John Locke, both typically patient in their running, could be the main beneficiaries. Conversely, Westlain, who prefers to be handy or lead, could find the tempo working against him.


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Key Contenders:

Bellator Bullet (75 TFR) – Unexposed over staying trips and progressive. Improved on each of his last three starts, winning well twice, including over this trip. A sharp turn of foot and proven stamina mark him out. 8.5/10

Tazaman (69 TFR) – In-form 8yo chasing a hat-trick after two wins over staying trips. Proven over further, though may not have the upside of a 3yo like Bellator Bullet. Apprentice claims useful 7 lb. 7.5/10

Jimmy Mark (73 TFR) – Ultra-consistent sort who will be well suited to a slow pace with his finishing style. Has placed on last four starts including a win at Bath. Tactically suited and reliable. 7.5/10

Westlain (74 TFR) – Big move up in trip helped him last time, and though progressive, he might not get the pace needed to fully settle and use his stamina. Still early days and respected. 7/10

Van Aert (73 TFR) – Three solid runs this year, including a win at Kempton and second at Salisbury. Not without hope, though form at this distance less proven than others. 6.5/10



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Others:

John Locke (68 TFR) – Former smart hurdler. Raced only once on the Flat in the last 28 months; shaped as if retaining ability but stamina for 1m6f needs confirming. Watch market. 5/10

Lusaka (62 TFR) – Exposed 7yo with form going the wrong way this season despite being eased in the weights. Hard to recommend on recent efforts. 3/10



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Private Tissue Estimate (100% Book):

Bellator Bullet – 9/4

Tazaman – 7/2

Jimmy Mark – 4/1

Westlain – 9/2

Van Aert – 6/1

John Locke – 14/1

Lusaka – 33/1



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Summary:

A race likely to be dictated by tactical nous and late acceleration. Bellator Bullet is the most progressive contender and has done nothing wrong since stepping up in distance. The danger is Jimmy Mark, who is tactically well suited and arrives in consistent form.


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Smart Play:

Win Bet – Bellator Bullet (unexposed over the trip, strong staying form)
Each-Way Saver – Jimmy Mark (proven stamina, pace-suited hold-up style)