Pace & Draw Angles: A strong gallop is forecast, a typical feature of this heritage staying handicap. The track favours patiently ridden types at this trip, particularly with a pace burn-up likely. Hold-up runners from a low or middle draw could be favoured. The draw bias works against those in high-numbered stalls.


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Strongest Contenders:

DANCING IN PARIS – Career-best second in the Northumberland Plate last time, pulling clear with the winner. Back on turf, he’s very well weighted and has been knocking on the door at this level (TFR 116). Strong finisher with ideal setup.

ENDLESS VICTORY – Charlie Appleby’s runner shaped better than the result in the Copper Horse at Ascot. Held up and stayed on late. Unexposed at staying trips and trainer/jockey thrive at this venue (TFR 113).

REAL DREAM – Placed in a Listed race last week, strong form with Coltrane. Stays this trip well and often finds more late in races. Ian Williams is adept with stayers (TFR 114).


Main Dangers:

STORY HORSE – Newmarket winner who ran a cracker behind French Master at Goodwood. However, prominent tactics could see him caught out in a strongly run race (TFR 115).

ALIGN THE STARS – Good run in Ascot Stakes (7th of 20). Stays very well and races prominently. May need an easier setup to see it through (TFR 112).

INSANITY – Recent winner at Ayr in a small field. Has conditions in favour but may find this deeper (TFR 110).



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Interesting Outsiders:

ONEFORTHEGUTTER – Big run at Ayr behind Insanity. Holds form at this trip and might go under the radar (TFR 114).

LIEBER POWER – Capable handicapper, but stamina for this test remains a concern (TFR 112).

LIARI – Talented but tailed off in the Ascot Stakes. Question marks remain over trip and consistency (TFR 108).



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Suitability Ratings (Track/Trip/Going/Class/Temperament etc.) out of 10:

DANCING IN PARIS – 9/10 – Proven stayer, strong closer, well weighted.

ENDLESS VICTORY – 8.5/10 – Unexposed, likely improver with top connections.

REAL DREAM – 8/10 – In-form, hard to rule out with Listed place form.

STORY HORSE – 7.5/10 – Improving but vulnerable to closers.

ONEFORTHEGUTTER – 7.5/10 – Strong stayer, holding form.

ALIGN THE STARS – 7/10 – Races on pace, but stamina assured.

INSANITY – 6.5/10 – May get swamped late.

LIEBER POWER – 6/10 – Trip doubt, best on sharper tracks.

CHAMPAGNE PRINCE – 6/10 – May prefer AW.

LIARI – 5.5/10 – Unreliable, ground/trip not ideal.

ROARING LEGEND – 5.5/10 – Faded late in last two; stamina doubt.

ARTISAN DANCER – 5/10 – Needs perfect setup, not reliable.

IMPERIAL SOVEREIGN – 4/10 – Out of form.



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Private Tissue Estimate:

Dancing in Paris 4/1

Endless Victory 5/1

Real Dream 6/1

Story Horse 8/1

Oneforthegutter 10/1

Align the Stars 10/1

Insanity 12/1

Lieber Power 16/1

Champagne Prince 18/1

Liari 25/1

Roaring Legend 33/1

Artisan Dancer 40/1

Imperial Sovereign 50/1



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Summary:

The strong pace forecast, combined with Newmarket’s tendency to favour closers over 1m6f, tilts the balance in favour of those who can sit off the speed and produce a strong late run. DANCING IN PARIS fits this profile perfectly and is in career-best form. ENDLESS VICTORY appeals as a lightly raced improver for a red-hot stable, while REAL DREAM has solid form at a higher level and is consistent.


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Smart Play:

Win Bet: DANCING IN PARIS – Strong finisher, well drawn, and comes here in peak condition.

Each-Way Saver: REAL DREAM – Tough and in-form stayer with proven class edge.

Market support for ENDLESS VICTORY should be respected, given the stable’s record in this race.