Pace & Draw Angles: The race is expected to be strongly run, which historically suits hold-up types at this trip on the round course. CREPE SUZETTE and MUSIC PIECE look tactically well positioned, especially the former who thrives off a true tempo. Front-runners like ORIONIS and GHAIYYA may be vulnerable late on.


—

Strongest Contenders:

CREPE SUZETTE – Fast-improving 3yo who came from an impossible position at Salisbury when hampered at the start. The trip, pace scenario, and pedigree all point to more to come (TFR 105p).

MUSIC PIECE – Progressing steadily and stayed on nicely at Goodwood in listed company. Strong finisher and shapes as if 1½m will bring improvement (TFR 101p).

ORIONIS – Tough and likeable; just held on from Mrs Twig last time but may face pace pressure. Up 5lb and could be vulnerable late (TFR 96p).

TATTYCORAM – Solid in listed races, drops into a handicap off 89. Ground/trip suit, but needs to settle early to be effective (TFR 97).


Main Dangers & Outsiders:

BAS BLEU – Disappointed last time in listed class, but progressive in handicaps prior. May sneak a place if pace collapses (TFR 100).

GHAIYYA – In-form front-runner, but face tougher opposition now. Likely to set up the race for closers (TFR 98).

CHILLI QUEEN – Improving but wins have come on the AW. Has stamina and a turn of foot but may need to prove turf effectiveness in a stronger field (TFR 97).



—

Suitability Ratings (Going/Trip/Pace/Class/Track) out of 10:

CREPE SUZETTE – 9.5/10 – Suited by everything, strong finisher in a fast-run race.

MUSIC PIECE – 9/10 – Well suited by trip and pace, progressive.

TATTYCORAM – 8/10 – Capable at this level, slight stamina concern.

ORIONIS – 7.5/10 – Consistent, may struggle to dominate.

GHAIYYA – 7/10 – Game front-runner but setup not ideal.

BAS BLEU – 6.5/10 – Needs to bounce back but has ability.

CHILLI QUEEN – 6.5/10 – AW wins, unproven in stronger turf handicaps.

MRS TWIG/MISS ALPILLES/CIARA PEARL – 5.5/10 or less – Outclassed or tactically unsuited.



—

Private Tissue Estimate:

Crepe Suzette 3/1

Music Piece 7/2

Tattycoram 11/2

Orionis 13/2

Ghaiyya 8/1

Bas Bleu 10/1

Chilli Queen 14/1

Others 20/1+



—

Summary:

A solid fillies’ handicap with depth. CREPE SUZETTE looks like a potential pattern-class performer in a handicap and will benefit from the step up in trip and strong pace. MUSIC PIECE is also improving and her closing style suits the setup. ORIONIS and GHAIYYA may struggle to get easy leads in a field with multiple pace angles.


—

Smart Play:

Win Bet: CREPE SUZETTE – She has the look of a filly on a sharp upward curve, and all conditions favour her.

Each-Way Saver: MUSIC PIECE – Reliable, improving, and set to be finishing well. A strong place prospect with win potential.