Pace & Draw Angles:

There’s insufficient race pace data, but early evidence indicates low draws are favoured over 7f on the July Course. With many unraced types, tactical speed will be vital. HENGROIN appears the strongest on exposed form and should not be disadvantaged by pace makeup.


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Strongest Contenders:

DISTANT STORM – Bought for €1.9 million at breeze-ups and holds Group 1 entries. Closely related to Group performers and represents a yard (Charlie Appleby) with an excellent record in this race. Drawn well (stall 2) and has William Buick booked. (TFR 98)

OXAGON – By a sire of 2yo winners and out of a speedy family. Trained by the Gosdens who’ve won this race twice in the last decade. Oisin Murphy rides. (TFR 87)

CONSTITUTION RIVER – Aidan O’Brien’s representative, cost €400,000 and is related to top-class stayers. Ryan Moore booked. Expected to improve as distances increase. (TFR 95)

BILLECART – High-priced yearling (€380,000), trained by Karl Burke. Well-bred, from a sprint/mile family. Should be sharp enough on debut. (TFR 98)



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Interesting Outsider:

VENETIAN PRINCE – Excellent pedigree; out of multiple Group 1 winner Arabian Queen, related to top-class performers like See The Fire and Spirit Mixer. From a yard (Andrew Balding) that’s had success in this. Could outrun odds. (TFR 94)



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Horses with Experience:

HENGROIN – Second to a well-regarded sort at Windsor, having finished fourth on debut. Should go close if the newcomers aren’t top-class. Will appreciate the step up to 7f. (TFR 88)

RAGING RAJ – Exposed and well beaten last time. Difficult to recommend. (TFR 62)

ANEEDAHBEER – Twice well beaten. No signs of competitiveness. (TFR -)



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Suitability Ratings out of 10 (track/distance/pedigree/preparation):

DISTANT STORM – 9.5/10 – Top pedigree, top yard, ideal trip, strong draw.

OXAGON – 9/10 – Smart connections and profile.

CONSTITUTION RIVER – 8.5/10 – May want further later, but classy family.

BILLECART – 8.5/10 – Strong sales profile, but unknown on readiness.

VENETIAN PRINCE – 8/10 – Interesting bloodlines; trainer excels here.

HENGROIN – 8/10 – Proven and solid; vulnerable if newcomers are sharp.



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Private Tissue Estimate:

Distant Storm 2/1

Oxagon 9/2

Constitution River 5/1

Billecart 11/2

Hengroin 13/2

Venetian Prince 10/1

Sword Maker 14/1

Catullus 20/1

Others 33/1+



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Summary:

With a strong field of newcomers, it looks likely to be won by a debutant. DISTANT STORM comes with the right profile – high-priced, Group-entered, Appleby-trained and Buick-ridden. The Gosdens’ OXAGON and O’Brien’s CONSTITUTION RIVER are also intriguing on paper. Proven runner HENGROIN sets the form standard but might just lack the brilliance needed.


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Smart Play:

Win Bet: DISTANT STORM – Has the profile of a debutant winner, and the yard has dominated this race in recent seasons.

Each-Way Saver: OXAGON – From a leading juvenile stable, with a sprint pedigree and top jockey; may go under the radar in the market.