Pace & Draw Angles:
Pace is even, and there’s a clear bias against low draws, making high numbers more favourable. That could hinder horses drawn in single figures if they fail to secure a prominent early position. Experience and track position will count in a large, open field of 14.


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Strongest Contenders:

CREST OF FIRE (95p) – Improved from debut when second at York in a strong novice. Timefigure from that race was excellent and form is holding up well. Still learning and with more to come. Slightly low draw (stall 2) could be a concern, but his tactical speed helps.

ANASHHAD (92p) – Roger Varian-trained colt ran a promising third at York on debut over 6f. Step up to 7f will suit, and he shaped like one needing further. Drawn 8 – fair pitch. Will improve again and has the pedigree for it.

OHARA (73p) – Kept on well late on debut over this trip on AW at Kempton, shaping as if further would suit. Wide draw is a big plus at Ascot and she looks a strong staying type in the making.


Main Dangers:

MOGBBEL – No run yet, but represents a yard that has been profitable with debutants. Smartly bred colt by a 2-y-o winner out of a useful sprint family. Needs market confidence.

LAUREATE CROWN – Well bred and Jamie Spencer booked, suggesting patience will be applied. Likely to be seen running on late.

BATTLE APPLE – Second foal of a sprinting dam, represents Hannon yard who do well with juveniles. Draw is reasonable. Market can guide.

AL SHABAB SPIRIT – From the Crisfords, who have a good record with juveniles. Long-term type, likely better over middle distances but interesting on pedigree.


Interesting Outsiders:

TITANCK – Trained by Richard Hughes, whose newcomers can go well. Wide draw (stall 10) ideal, and his profile suggests he might be seen to better effect here.

SUSPENDED SENTENCE – Reasonably drawn in stall 13 and represents a trainer with a decent 2-y-o record. Might outrun long odds with a clear run.



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Suitability Ratings (out of 10):

Horse Track Trip Going Class Trainer Draw Experience Suitability Score

Crest of Fire 8 9 9 9 9 6 8 8.4
Anashhad 8 9 9 8 8 7 8 8.2
Ohara 7 9 8 7 7 9 7 7.9
Mogbbel ? ? 8 7 8 5 ? 7.4 (uncertain)
Laureate Crown ? ? 8 7 7 6 ? 7.1 (uncertain)
Titanck ? ? 8 7 7 9 ? 7.2 (uncertain)
Suspended Sentence ? ? 7 6 7 8 ? 6.9 (uncertain)
Battle Apple ? ? 8 6 7 7 ? 6.8 (uncertain)
Berkshire Schmokin 5 7 7 5 6 4 6 6.0
Loblolly 5 6 7 5 6 4 5 5.6
Guest House 4 6 6 4 4 5 4 4.6



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Private Tissue Estimate:

Crest of Fire – 9/4

Anashhad – 4/1

Ohara – 13/2

Mogbbel – 8/1

Laureate Crown – 10/1

Suspended Sentence – 12/1

Titanck – 14/1

Battle Apple – 16/1

Berkshire Schmokin – 25/1

Loblolly – 33/1

Guest House – 50/1



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Summary:

This looks like a strong novice with both Crest of Fire and Anashhad bringing strong York form into play. Both will improve, though the draw favours Anashhad slightly. Ohara shaped very well on debut and could be a value play given she’s likely to improve again for her wide draw and stamina.


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Smart Play:

Win Bet: Crest of Fire – Sets a solid form standard and has the strongest time figure of those with experience.
Each-Way Saver: Ohara – Improved with every stride on debut and the draw at stall 14 is a major asset at Ascot. Could easily hit the frame or better.

Progressive types dominate in what should be a fast-run and informative juvenile contest.