Pace & Draw Analysis:

With a “Very Weak” pace projection, this race is likely to suit those drawn low who can take an early tactical position. Hold-up horses may struggle unless they possess a sharp turn of foot. Dundalk often favours prominent racers, and there’s a notable negative draw bias against high numbers here.


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Contenders & Suitability Ratings:

DE BOODE – 8.5/10
Eye-catching debut behind a smart winner. Was well off the pace but made ground late; that run can be marked up. Bred to improve with experience and step up in trip. Drawn 11, which is not ideal, but should progress. Trainer Ger Lyons boasts a 21% strike rate here.

SIDNEY REILLY – 8/10
Promising fourth on debut in a big Cork field. That race has already thrown up winners. Switch to AW should suit based on pedigree. Good draw in stall 1 enhances his claims. Has been gelded and is open to plenty of improvement.

BEIJINHO – 7/10
Well-bred newcomer who won a barrier trial. Starts career at a mile, which might stretch her a little early on, but clear potential. Yard has a fair record with newcomers, and draw in 2 is ideal for the slow tempo predicted.

LIMBOCALL – 6.5/10
Fair form in both starts. Shaped like a stayer and may be better over further in time. From an in-form yard, though drawn wider than ideal. Could sneak into a place.

FOUR WHITE FURY – 5.5/10
Improved second up but still well beaten. Further progress not out of the question, but more needed. Better drawn than some.

LITTLE BOO THING – 5.5/10
From a yard with a fine record in the race (three wins in the last four years). Ran green on debut and missed break. Interesting if the market speaks positively. Poor draw tempers enthusiasm.

CEZARRO – 5/10
Has shown a modicum of ability in two Curragh runs but lacks pace and could get caught out in a tactical race. Headgear combination remains.

RAPID SEQUENCE – 4.5/10
Unraced and well drawn, but not strong on paper and from a yard that rarely wins on debut. Could improve in time.

BUCK LAKE – 4/10
Well beaten both starts, first-time hood now tried. Weak overall profile. Looks opposable.

PAUSE FOR PEACE – 4/10
Well related but hasn’t shown any ability in two runs. Draw not helpful. Hard to support at this stage.

ANGEL HARRY – 3.5/10
Three uncompetitive runs and long layoff. Will need to transform to figure here.

GLASHEEN GIRL – 2/10
Has finished last in all four starts and looks out of her depth once more.


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Horse Suitability Scores (/10):

Horse Going Pace Draw Track Distance Trainer Form Total

De Boode 8 6 5 8 8 9 44
Sidney Reilly 8 7 9 8 8 7 47
Beijinho 7 6 9 7 6 7 42
Limbocall 6 6 5 7 8 8 40
Little Boo Thing 6 5 4 7 7 8 37



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Private Tissue Estimate:

SIDNEY REILLY – 3/1

DE BOODE – 7/2

BEIJINHO – 9/2

LIMBOCALL – 8/1

LITTLE BOO THING – 12/1

Others 16/1+



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Summary:

This looks like a good opportunity for either SIDNEY REILLY or DE BOODE to get off the mark. Both ran with promise and look well suited by conditions. The former has a perfect draw to control the pace in a slowly run race and should build on his Cork effort. De Boode has to overcome a wide draw but has a strong profile and should go close if improving as expected. Beijinho remains interesting on debut, while any market strength for Little Boo Thing should be noted given Joseph O’Brien’s race record.

SMART PLAY:

1. WIN – SIDNEY REILLY (Low draw, promising debut, trainer in decent form)


2. EACH-WAY – DE BOODE (Track experience and strong late run on debut, but draw a negative)