Pace & Draw Analysis:

A scorching early gallop is expected, with multiple front-runners engaged, notably DARK THIRTY, GORAK, and RUN BOY RUN. This could heavily favour patiently ridden types from low to middle draws. There’s a known low-draw advantage on this straight 7f at Newmarket in strong pace scenarios.


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Contenders & Suitability Ratings:

MORE THUNDER – 9/10
Rapidly progressive since moving to Haggas; outstanding second in the Wokingham after being outpaced early, finishing powerfully. Back up to 7f ideal. Drawn wide but versatile. Has strong pace and class suitability, looks ahead of the handicapper.

TEN POUNDS – 8.5/10
Huge run in the Wokingham; travelled well and stayed on. Form franked and likes quick ground. Trainer in form. Drawn in 3 which is ideal, and 7f no issue. Market support significant.

AKKADIAN THUNDER – 8/10
Another Ascot eye-catcher in the Buckingham Palace. Stays 7f well, form with Billyjoh and Never So Brave reads well. William Buick an asset. Draw 12 less than ideal but has tactical flexibility.

MYAL – 7.5/10
Multiple winner this year, 4th in Buckingham Palace solid. Stays 7f+ and strong profile for handicaps. Will need luck from wide draw.

RUN BOY RUN – 7/10
Won here previously, front-runner who could be exposed in this pace shape. Honest and consistent but vulnerable late.

HE’S A MONSTER – 6.5/10
Good comeback effort at Newcastle, should strip fitter. Well-handicapped on old form but 7f at Newmarket might find him out off the pace.

EBT’S GUARD – 6.5/10
Likes strong pace but tends to get behind early. Capable but place claims best case.

AALTO – 6/10
Won this race in 2024 but was well beaten on recent return. Could bounce back but others arrive in better form.

BILLYJOH – 5.5/10
Consistent but exposed; hard to see him reversing form with Akkadian Thunder. Not a lot of upside.

GOLDEN MIND / OUR HAVANA / DARK THIRTY / GORAK – 4/10 or lower
All capable types but have been below form or struggle for tactical fit in this race scenario. Likely up against it.


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Horse Suitability Scores (/10):

Horse Going Draw Pace Class Trip Trainer/Jockey Total

More Thunder 9 7 9 9 9 8 51
Ten Pounds 9 9 8 8 8 9 51
Akkadian Thunder 8 6 7 8 8 8 45
Myal 7 5 7 7 8 8 42
Run Boy Run 7 5 4 7 7 7 37



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Private Tissue Estimate:

MORE THUNDER – 5/2

TEN POUNDS – 4/1

AKKADIAN THUNDER – 6/1

MYAL – 9/1

RUN BOY RUN – 14/1

Others – 20/1+



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Summary:

A high-class renewal with depth. MORE THUNDER remains well handicapped and shapes as if 7f will suit perfectly following his big Wokingham run. TEN POUNDS ran just behind him and has an ideal draw. Both bring strong recent figures. AKKADIAN THUNDER is another Royal Ascot eyecatcher and holds solid credentials if coping with a wide draw. Conditions will suit hold-up types.

SMART PLAY:

1. WIN – MORE THUNDER (Progressive, should relish the step up to 7f, peak form)


2. EACH-WAY – TEN POUNDS (Proven over 7f, drawn to advantage, classy type)