Pace & Distance Suitability Analysis:

With an even pace predicted, stamina and tactical speed will be key. Likely leaders include LA PULGA and CALVERT, with TREMORGIO and JUNKANOO potentially racing close up. Hold-up types like CLOCKMAKER may need luck and a solid gallop.


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Contenders & Suitability Ratings:

CREATIF – 8.5/10
Consistent and thriving since wind op. Has handled good-to-firm well and stays 13f strongly, suggesting stamina for this trip. Always in the mix recently. O’Meara team going well. Mark of 90 looks competitive.

TREMORGIO – 8/10
Lightly raced and improving for top yard. Unsuited by tactical affair last time but bred to get this trip and looks progressive. Appleby has excellent stats with middle-distance runners. Must prove stamina fully.

CALVERT – 7.5/10
Lightly raced and ran well last time from the front. Up in trip but shapes as if 1m6f should suit. Useful 7lb claim helps. Needs to prove he can be as effective with more competition for the lead.

JUNKANOO – 7/10
Useful on flat and over hurdles. Won easily at Fontwell latest and hinted at a revival on the level. Stays well and has a touch of class when on song. Could be well handicapped if reverting to best.

BRAVE KNIGHT – 6.5/10
Dual winner in 2023; shaped better than result on return over too-soft ground. Could strip fitter and trainer is shrewd with dual-purpose types. Minor doubts on level of ability off this mark.

CLOCKMAKER – 6/10
Hard to catch right; quirky and often underperforms after threatening. Best judged on Doncaster win but needs to improve on Newbury effort. Jamie Spencer ride suits his hold-up style but needs an honest gallop.

TROJAN STORM – 5.5/10
Improving on the AW but this is a deeper field and others look better treated. Consistent but looks vulnerable for win purposes.

DIAMOND BAY – 5/10
7yo who is inconsistent and has been soundly beaten last two runs. Vulnerable to younger improvers.

LA PULGA – 4.5/10
Usually leads but has gone backwards since promising return. Hard to fancy on recent efforts.


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Horse Suitability Scores (/10):

Horse Going Pace Trip Class Form Trainer Total

Creatif 9 7 9 8 8 8 49
Tremorgio 8 8 7 8 7 9 47
Calvert 8 8 8 7 7 7 45
Junkanoo 7 6 9 6 7 7 42
Brave Knight 7 6 7 7 6 6 39



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Private Tissue Estimate:

CREATIF – 3/1

TREMORGIO – 4/1

CALVERT – 5/1

JUNKANOO – 13/2

CLOCKMAKER – 8/1

BRAVE KNIGHT – 9/1

OTHERS – 12/1+



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Summary:

This open handicap could fall to one of the improving, progressive types. CREATIF is consistent, race-fit, and proven over the trip—hard to knock. TREMORGIO has untapped potential and the right profile for this test if staying. CALVERT and JUNKANOO appeal for places at value but might need tactical favours.

SMART PLAY:

1. WIN – CREATIF (Proven stayer, consistent, stable in form, nicely weighted)


2. EACH-WAY – TREMORGIO (Lightly raced improver, top trainer, stamina to prove but classy)