Pace & Draw Suitability:

With an even pace predicted, those drawn low and sitting close to the lead or mid-division can be favoured here, especially given Dundalk’s slight disadvantage to high draws in handicaps over a mile. Prominent runners like GATSBY CAP and HASTILY might struggle late due to their draw. RAMPAGE, EL BELLO, and CIRCLES are well positioned tactically.


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Contenders & Suitability Ratings:

RAMPAGE – 8.5/10
Clearly in form with a recent close second at Bellewstown. Winner off higher marks before, acts well on polytrack, and trainer has a record in this race. Drawn 9 which is just manageable. Peak mark but in right type of race.

EL BELLO – 7.5/10
Reliable in big fields, strong Dundalk record. Travels well but can hang. Best figures on AW; decent draw. Jockey uplift with Colin Keane booked. Consistent and place claims at minimum.

SIERRA DE GREDOS – 7/10
Won two starts ago, raced too prominently last time. Effective with cover and trip suits. Draw could be slightly awkward (7), and temperament under suspicion.

CIRCLES – 6.5/10
AW winner earlier this year and drawn well in 13, despite general high draw bias. Could go forward and be positioned well. One-paced finisher, but danger if she breaks sharply.

SEAS AND OCEANS – 6/10
0-14 but some decent Dundalk runs in the past. Layoff a worry (104 days), though now 5lbs below previous good second. Watch market.

JUNK RATED: PULSE OF SHANGHAI, WAYNE R WALKER, GATSBY CAP, HASTILY, KARNEY, NIKA PIKA, CARRICKFINN, AISLING OSCAR – all out of form or unreliable on recent evidence.


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Horse Suitability Scores (/10):

Horse Going Draw Pace Class Form Trainer Total

Rampage 8 6 8 7 8 8 45
El Bello 8 7 7 6 7 7 42
Sierra de Gredos 7 6 6 6 6 6 37
Circles 7 5 7 6 6 6 37
Seas & Oceans 7 4 6 6 5 6 34



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Private Tissue Estimate:

RAMPAGE – 2/1

EL BELLO – 4/1

SIERRA DE GREDOS – 13/2

CIRCLES – 8/1

SEAS & OCEANS – 10/1

Others – 16/1+



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Summary:

A modest but open handicap with several runners arriving off disappointing turf efforts. RAMPAGE is clear on form and consistency, and Dundalk suits his prominent running style. EL BELLO is rock solid at this level, and SIERRA DE GREDOS can bounce back if not used up early.

SMART PLAY:

1. WIN – RAMPAGE (Proven on surface, in form, strong recent run in deeper field)


2. EACH-WAY – EL BELLO (Solid AW profile, top jockey, can travel into contention)