Pace Forecast: Very Weak
Draw Bias: N/A (round trip)
Key Tactical Angle: A notably weak pace is expected. Horses able to travel smoothly or who can sit prominently may gain advantage. Hold-up types will be reliant on mid-race moves or others injecting pace.


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Main Contenders

1. TENOYA (TFR 89) – Rating: 8/10

Form: Placed twice in two maidens over 12f; progressive profile.

Tactics: Hold-up type but has responded to pressure; form with substance.

Trainer: Paddy Twomey has a 30% strike rate over 10f+, and she’s the yard’s only runner here.

Risk: Temperament fine; needs a decent gallop which looks unlikely.

Note: Her Curragh third reads very well and she has a strong staying pedigree.


2. FLORESTA (TFR 87p) – Rating: 8/10

Form: Stayed on well into third last time over 11.9f; progressive on both starts.

Pedigree: Dam a stayer, bred to improve with racing.

Trainer: J. P. Murtagh is a solid handler; good strike rate with fillies in similar events.

Risk: Will need a good trip in a steadily-run race.

Flags: ‘p’ – likely to improve further. One to note on staying breeding.


3. LIFTING SAILS – Rating: 7/10

Debutante: Nicely bred, from a top stable.

Trainer: Jessica Harrington can ready one and gets winners at this trip.

Unknowns: Fitness and mental readiness key; no form to work with.

Suitability: Pedigree points to suitability for trip and ground.


4. MONNTIE (TFR 76) – Rating: 6/10

Form: Made minor headway when fourth on debut (10f).

Profile: From a stamina-laden family; will improve for this longer trip.

Risk: May lack tactical speed in slowly run race; slowly away last time.


5. FITZROY GARDENS (TFR 77) – Rating: 6/10

Form: Ninth of 16 at Naas last year; absent 321 days.

Trainer: Donnacha O’Brien also runs Candidly; this filly may be the first string.

Flags: Long layoff – market will guide.



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The Rest

6. SNAPRETEND (TFR 67) – Rating: 4/10

Form: Well held on debut at Dundalk; hasn’t run since February.

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien excels with fillies, but market support essential.

Risk: Layoff + slow early tempo may leave her vulnerable.


7. CANDIDLY – Rating: 3/10

Form: Poor debut despite support.

Trainer: Donnacha O’Brien has her in first-time blinkers but was tailed off on debut.

Profile: Blueblood pedigree but needs to show much more.


8. ALEXA NEXT (TFR 66) – Rating: 2/10

Form: Well beaten in both runs.

Trainer: Smaller yard; limited ammunition.

Outlook: Very hard to recommend.



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Profile Summary

Proven: None yet; all maidens.

Progressive: FLORESTA and TENOYA both look to have the most forward potential.

Promising: LIFTING SAILS has the breeding to make a strong debut.

Hold-Up Risks: TENOYA and FLORESTA may need luck given lack of pace.



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Private Tissue Estimate (100%)

TENOYA – 5/2

FLORESTA – 11/4

LIFTING SAILS – 9/2

MONNTIE – 6/1

FITZROY GARDENS – 10/1

SNAPRETEND – 16/1

CANDIDLY – 25/1

ALEXA NEXT – 33/1



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Summary

This fillies’ maiden lacks depth but offers scope for improvement among the better-bred types. TENOYA brings the strongest placed form and comes from a yard with a serious record at this trip. FLORESTA is another progressive type likely to be suited by the step up in trip. LIFTING SAILS is bred to go well on debut and represents a top yard. Tactics and race position will be crucial given the very weak pace forecast.


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Smart Play – Professional Punter View

Win Bet – TENOYA (has the standout form and trainer profile)
Each-Way Saver – FLORESTA (clear progressive type with stamina-laden pedigree, solid place chance in 8-runner field)
Keep a close watch on LIFTING SAILS in the market – if she’s strong late, fitness is likely not a concern.