Pace Forecast: Strong
Pace Bias: Suits closers or those tucked in off the speed. BALLINEARLA GIRL well-positioned; fast fractions may harm CULLAGH PRIDE, a forward-goer.


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Contenders Overview

COLLEEN DANU (120) – Progressive and reliable. Clear-cut Clonmel winner in May and lost nothing in defeat latest in small field. Carries weight well, acts on all ground types and the form is holding up. Up in trip, which looks manageable. Solid all-round credentials.

LEAH’S CONTESSA (121) – Well-handicapped with strong form lines. Fairyhouse third on final start was a big step up. Lightly raced, genuine, and unexposed at the trip. Yard among winners and 3lb off with Gainford up. Major player if fit after 82-day break.

BALLINEARLA GIRL (122) – Dangerously well treated if stamina holds. Best effort to date was over 2½m, and shaped well after a long break over 2m at Listowel. Can improve back up in distance and well suited by likely strong pace.

BARONESS ORCZY (115p) – Handicap debut and the profile of a dark horse. Shown minor promise in maidens, especially when not knocked about. Trainer has good stats at this trip range. Needs to jump better but market support would be significant.

NYTOL (114) – Last-time-out maiden winner, suited by further. May lack the finishing gears for a test this sharp off a strong gallop. Ground OK, but slight stamina query back down in trip.



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Each-Way Angles

Plenty of depth for each-way value with 21 runners. BALLINEARLA GIRL and BARONESS ORCZY offer backable profiles at longer odds, both well suited by race setup.


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Hold-up Types Needing Luck

BALLINEARLA GIRL, BARONESS ORCZY, CIAO ADIOS – Could benefit from pace but need rhythm in big field.

CULLAGH PRIDE – Bold type but may be undone by early burn-up.



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Trainers to Note

Barry Connell (BARONESS ORCZY) has a 22% strike rate over 2m2f–2m6f hurdles.

Patrick Cronin (ONEBRIGHTBLUEROSE) has found a consistent type here.

Cian M. Collins (LEAH’S CONTESSA) has two strong runners, both worth a market watch.



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Ratings (Suitability Out of 10)

Horse Score

LEAH’S CONTESSA 8.5
COLLEEN DANU 8.5
BALLINEARLA GIRL 8
BARONESS ORCZY 7.5
NYTOL 7
ONEBRIGHTBLUEROSE 6.5
Others ≤6


Proven: COLLEEN DANU

Progressive: LEAH’S CONTESSA, BALLINEARLA GIRL

Promising: BARONESS ORCZY (first handicap)

Market Watch: BARONESS ORCZY, NYTOL, VROOMVROOMBOO



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Private Tissue Estimate

Horse Odds

LEAH’S CONTESSA 6/1
COLLEEN DANU 6/1
BALLINEARLA GIRL 9/1
BARONESS ORCZY 10/1
NYTOL 12/1



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Summary

This has the makings of a strongly run and truly run mares’ handicap. The front-end pace will be hot, and closers should benefit. LEAH’S CONTESSA has the class edge, while COLLEEN DANU remains consistent in this grade. BALLINEARLA GIRL looks ready to peak, and BARONESS ORCZY is a potential improver now handicapping.


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Smart Play

Win Bet – LEAH’S CONTESSA (lightly raced with strongest recent form, and well suited by race conditions).
Each-Way Saver – BALLINEARLA GIRL (well treated, back over ideal trip, and will benefit from strong tempo).