Race Overview

Conditions: Good ground, 3m1f80y trip, 17 runners, Listed Handicap Chase.
Pace Forecast: Even.
Tactical Bias: Hold-up runners are disadvantaged at this trip at Kilbeggan, so prominent racers and strong travellers are better suited.


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Key Tactical Angles

Front/Pace Influencers: Marv Michael (races prominently), Flash De Touzaine, Cadatharla, Spanish Harlem (can sit handy).

Hold-Up Risks: Tullybeg, Final Orders, Moonovercloon, Ambitious Fellow – will need luck in running given track bias.

Course Bias: Prominent or midfield runners fare better over this trip.



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Strongest Contenders

SPANISH HARLEM – 157 | Solid profile: 4th in the Bet365 Gold Cup (Sandown), then won easily at Punchestown. Has stamina for further, acts on good and heavy, and brings class edge for Willie Mullins (26% summer SR). Tongue tie/cheekpieces help keep him straight.

DRUMGILL – 154 | Lightly raced chaser who ran a personal best in the Mayo National. Only six, well-handicapped, progressive and versatile with regard to trip and ground.

MARV MICHAEL – 158p | Improving 7yo from Henry de Bromhead. Big Kilbeggan win two back (12L), then shaped well behind Gaelic Arc. Proven over the track and trip; goes forward and suits tactical demands.

CADATHARLA – 154 | Career best to win the Killarney National; held up too far back last time but shaped well. Has the stamina and tactical flexibility; not exposed.

FLASH DE TOUZAINE – 153 | Veteran but thriving, winning last two. Up in grade but handles this trip well, and comes here in form.



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Dangers & Value Outsiders

TULLYBEG – 161 | Fell 2 out when likely to go close at Perth. Consistent in staying races, but usually held up and racing style not suited here. Still, has place claims if delivering clean round.

AMIRITE – 151 | Former runner-up in this race and brings back form from Aintree and Cheltenham festivals. Type to bounce back; freshened since May.

MICA MALPIC / AMBITIOUS FELLOW – If they get in, both are running into form, finished 1st/2nd in Connacht National. Would be each-way players.



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Temperament, Trainers & Jockeys

Willie Mullins (SPANISH HARLEM) 23% win rate in 19f–3m chases.

Gordon Elliott has won this race twice; he runs TULLYBEG, HARSH and RIAAN (the latter with Davy Russell-style rider in Kennedy).

Jack Gilligan rides BUDDY ONE (145) who was fifth in the Stayers’ Hurdle and returns from 97 days off – market support essential.



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Ratings Scores (out of 10)

Horse Suitability Score (/10) Notes

Spanish Harlem 9.5 Class act, ideal profile, Mullins summer angle
Drumgill 9 Progressive, peak form, improving chaser
Marv Michael 9 Local form, tactically suited, still improving
Cadatharla 8.5 Well handicapped, shaped better than result last time
Flash De Touzaine 8 In-form, but may be vulnerable to improvers
Amirite 7.5 Classy on day, inconsistent
Tullybeg 7 Well treated, but hold-up style not ideal
Riaan 7 Unseated latest, needs to jump better
Final Orders 6.5 Pulled up twice recently, needs bounce back
Buddy One 6 Good hurdler, not as strong over fences
In Excelsis Deo 5 Fragile jumper, out of sorts
Moonovercloon 5 Chase form patchy, ground/trip OK though
Harsh 5 5yo and unexposed but has a lot to prove here
Toss Again 4.5 Out of sorts, pulled up last time
Outside The Door (R) 6.5 Staying type, consistent, if getting run
Mica Malpic (R) 7.5 In-form and strong finisher, would be a player if making cut
Ambitious Fellow (R) 7 Stayed well last time, close second, another for shortlist if running



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Each-Way Angles (17 runners)

Drumgill (unexposed and improving)

Cadatharla (strong-finishing style, better than latest run)

Flash De Touzaine (veteran with strong profile, reliable jumper)



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Private Tissue Estimate

Spanish Harlem – 5/1

Marv Michael – 6/1

Drumgill – 13/2

Cadatharla – 7/1

Flash De Touzaine – 9/1

Amirite – 10/1

Tullybeg – 12/1

Riaan – 14/1

Mica Malpic (if declared) – 14/1

Buddy One – 20/1

The rest – 25/1+



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Summary

This is a well-contested renewal of the Midlands National, with a mix of in-form types and classier but inconsistent runners. Tactical speed and track position will be crucial given Kilbeggan’s sharp layout. The likely honest pace will favour handy types with proven stamina.


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Smart Play

Win Bet: SPANISH HARLEM – Classy, tactically versatile, and primed under Paul Townend.
Each-Way Saver: DRUMGILL – Still progressing over fences and arrives in peak condition.

Watch the market closely for any strength behind Mica Malpic or Ambitious Fellow if they get into the field – both would enter calculations at prices.