Pace Forecast: Strong

Draw Bias: Middle draws marginally favoured

Pace Note: With front-runners like Oasis Sunrise and Al Shabab ensuring a solid tempo, those able to track the pace in midfield—like My Ambition—could benefit. Deep closers may struggle unless the leaders overdo it.



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Strongest Contenders

ALICE’S IMPACT (69, drawn 5) – Recent Brighton winner; that was a weak 4-runner affair but she made all comfortably and had run well at Chepstow before that. Fit, in-form, and with headgear back on. Trainer David Evans is in good form.

MY AMBITION (71, drawn 4) – Solid Chepstow/Bath form, but blew out latest run when failing to settle. If allowed to travel into it, he’s weighted to go close. The pace scenario suits him well.

AJRAD (68, drawn 2) – Course winner, back on song with a close second to Lambournghini here. Not always trustworthy but is off a fair mark and the inside draw with pace in the race may suit.



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Main Dangers & Outsiders

SOI DAO (67, drawn 1) – Consistent on fast ground and solid track form, but 1m might test her against stronger finishers.

TOO MUCH TREVOR (67, drawn 8) – Often runs on late but hard to catch right. May be vulnerable to sharper types unless the leaders collapse.

OASIS SUNRISE (68, drawn 11) – 3yo filly with a promising Bath second two back; didn’t get the best trip last time. Front-runner who will add to the early burn. Could be vulnerable late.

MARISITTA (66, drawn 9) – Prominent racer, consistent but has modest finishing effort and may struggle to see off stronger closers late.



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Trainer & Jockey Notes

Stevie Donohoe (Alice’s Impact) has a 35% strike rate on favourites, an important stat if market support comes again.

Rod Millman (Ajrad) often has his runners primed at Chepstow.

Denis Coakley’s small yard has done well in placing My Ambition, and Rob Hornby is a positive booking.



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Ratings Foundation Scores (/10)

Horse Score Suitability Notes

Alice’s Impact 8.5 In-form, tactically versatile, track/trip/ground all ideal
My Ambition 8 Best with pace to run at, can go close if settles
Ajrad 7.5 Strong recent effort, inside draw helpful if breaking well
Soi Dao 6.5 Honest but lacks finishing edge
Oasis Sunrise 6 Vulnerable front-runner, 3yo with some potential
Too Much Trevor 6 Inconsistent, better in bigger fields where pace collapses
Marisitta 6 Can race handy but may weaken late
Al Shabab 5.5 On a losing run, risk of slow start, not straightforward
Celebrating Ethel 5 Unproven at the trip, 106-day absence
Letter of the Law 5 Exposed and inconsistent
First Encounter 4.5 Well beaten twice recently, big question marks
Llangynin Lass 4.5 3yo, lightly raced, might need further
Big Bug 4 Out of sorts, long odds reflect true chance



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Each-Way Angles (13 runners)

Alice’s Impact – progressive filly with recent win, will be thereabouts again.

Ajrad – has the track form, value at double figures with proven profile.



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Private Tissue Estimate

Alice’s Impact – 4/1

My Ambition – 5/1

Ajrad – 6/1

Soi Dao – 7/1

Oasis Sunrise – 10/1

Too Much Trevor – 12/1

Marisitta – 14/1

The rest – 20/1+



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Summary

This 0–60 mile handicap looks like one for solid recent form and track suitability, with pace likely to be strong. That hands the advantage to stalkers or midfield runners who can quicken late.


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Smart Play

Win Bet: ALICE’S IMPACT – tactically flexible, thriving, and has more to come in this grade.
Each-Way Saver: AJRAD – reliable at Chepstow, recent run solid, drawn to advantage if breaking alertly.

Keep an eye on MY AMBITION – if the market warms, it suggests confidence in his ability to settle and bounce back.