Pace Angles:

The pace forecast is weak, and that’s a significant tactical factor. Runners that race prominently or can track the lead comfortably may be favoured, especially given Navan’s steady climb late on. Hold-up types could be at a disadvantage unless they have a sharp turn of foot or the leaders go too hard by mistake.

Draw Angles:

No clear draw bias is historically evident at this extended 5f trip on good-to-firm ground at Navan. With the field size under 10, stall position is unlikely to prove critical, though extreme wide draws can force traffic issues in a slow-run affair.


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Contender Profiles & Tactical Overview

Strongest Contenders

EL FONTENARO (Proven, 8/10)
🏇 Two solid runs this term (third then fourth), shaping well both times at Down Royal. She has tactical pace and sticks on gamely. Weak pace won’t trouble her as she races prominently. Acts on fast ground. This looks her level, and she’s unexposed at 5.5f.

SEND HARRY (Progressive, 8/10)
🏇 Quietly developing. A fair third last time at Fairyhouse with excuses (2lb overweight). He’s consistent and the type to capitalise in these low-grade 3yo sprints. His ability to go through soft and good ground gives flexibility. Draw and racing style both work.

SKILLMAN AVE (Proven, 7/10)
🏇 Got the job done last time at Tipperary in a visor and drops back marginally in trip here. He won despite racing wide and has solid turf form in similar company. Can go forward or sit handy, which is valuable today.


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Main Dangers

THIS AIN’T TEXAS (Promising, 7/10)
🏇 Still a maiden but has shaped better than the bare results. Hampered when fourth behind Skillman Ave last time and has previously run well when awkwardly positioned. Bred to get 6–7f so might just need a proper test to shine.

MCINTOSH (Regressive, 5/10)
🏇 Won a Wolverhampton maiden but hasn’t built on it since moving yards. Seems to act best on AW. While tongue tie stays on, he’s not clearly thriving and others are more convincing tactically here.


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Interesting Outsiders

BUNDLE OF INTEREST (Promising, 6/10)
🏇 Not beaten far at Tipperary in a messy race where she ran on despite being hampered. Damline is quick and smart, and the move to a visor might sharpen her up. Could outrun odds if the race breaks open late.


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Exposed or Opposable Types

BLUEBELARDO – Slow starter, best effort over a year ago, 40/1 looks fair. Rating: 3/10
RAISING THE FLAG – Overfaced last time, inconsistent and uncertain attitude. Rating: 4/10
CARMINA BURANA – No form at all, well held repeatedly in poor maidens. Rating: 2/10


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Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis

EL FONTENARO – 8/10: Strong tactical match, proven on ground and at trip.

SEND HARRY – 8/10: Good form, suits pace setup, steady improver.

SKILLMAN AVE – 7/10: Recent winner, may be vulnerable under penalty but well drawn.

THIS AIN’T TEXAS – 7/10: Unlucky last time, well bred, can go well if he breaks better.

BUNDLE OF INTEREST – 6/10: Dark horse; slight upgrade candidate with headgear on.

MCINTOSH – 5/10: Lacking recent turf spark, not well placed tactically.

RAISING THE FLAG – 4/10: Needs to show much more, possibly better at 6f+ later on.

BLUEBELARDO – 3/10: No real signs of life, profile going the wrong way.

CARMINA BURANA – 2/10: Exposed and struggling in much weaker races.


> Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.




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Each-Way Angles (9 runners)

With a full 3 places on offer, BUNDLE OF INTEREST looks a sneaky value each-way play at a double-figure price. Visor goes on, and she shaped as if ahead of her mark at Tipperary.


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Private Tissue Estimate

Horse Odds

El Fontenaro 7/2
Send Harry 4/1
Skillman Ave 9/2
This Ain’t Texas 6/1
Bundle of Interest 10/1
McIntosh 14/1
Raising The Flag 16/1
Bluebelardo 40/1
Carmina Burana 66/1


> Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.




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Summary + Professional Punter View

This looks like a soft 3yo sprint with no standout. The shape suits forward-goers or strong trackers, and the weak pace will likely compromise closers like El Fontenaro less than usual. Tactical agility and recent race sharpness are key.


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Smart Play

Win Bet: EL FONTENARO – Has done little wrong and will be well positioned in a tactical race.

Each-Way Saver: BUNDLE OF INTEREST – Improved performance latest and a strong late run in a weak-pace race may see her nick a place at a big price.