Pace Angles:

Forecast: Strong
With Eruption, Pansy Poe, and My Girl Sioux all pace pressers, this shapes up as a strongly-run 5f, which should favour those who settle and finish rather than blast from the front. The setup increases the prospects of closers like Lismacbryan Hill and Viamonte, especially given Navan’s uphill finish.


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Draw Bias:

No prevailing bias at 5f on good to firm ground with a field of this size at Navan. Mid-to-high draws are often slightly favoured in big fields, but race shape trumps draw today.


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Contender Profiles & Tactical Overview

Strongest Contenders

VIAMONTE (Progressive, 8/10)
🏇 Arguably unlucky not to have broken the maiden tag last time at Bellewstown when nabbed late. Has been holding consistent form over 5f all season and finished well despite pace bias against. Down in the weights off a fair mark and drawn to track the pace without being too far back. The fast pace setup is ideal.

LISMACBRYAN HILL (Promising, 8/10)
🏇 Third behind My Girl Sioux last time, but shaped like a horse with more to offer—left with a lot to do and still ran on strongly. Peak effort came at the Curragh in a deeper handicap. Has the turn of foot to come off the strong tempo. Eyecatcher with upside off this mark.


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Main Dangers

MINT MAN (Proven, 7/10)
🏇 Rarely runs a bad race, and placed efforts in better company at Dundalk and Down Royal read well. He wasn’t ideally placed last time (slow away), but still finished third in a hot 5f heat. Always vulnerable in fast-run races if caught too far back, but he’s very reliable.

MY GIRL SIOUX (Proven, 7/10)
🏇 Landed a minor race last time but needs to prove that wasn’t a pace/setup fluke. She got a good run through when others didn’t. Acts well at Navan but may find herself among the early battle and become vulnerable late.


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Interesting Outsider

BEST SUGGESTION (Promising, 6/10)
🏇 Only lightly raced and shaped okay behind Charasson at the Curragh. Debut third behind Seattle reads very well. Cheekpieces stay on. A big-field handicap with a strong pace may help him settle and run on.


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Others Assessed

ONLY SPOOFING – 5/10: Age catching up. Below form lately, needs ideal scenario to nick a place.

DEVIL’S ANGEL – 4/10: Course winner but was tailed off last time; inconsistent and pace vulnerable.

LA LA LUCRATIVE – 4/10: Big regression since Roscommon win; trip now may be sharp.

TWINKLING TOES – 3/10: Little to recommend based on recent handicapping effort.

ERUPTION – 3/10: Won off lower marks in claimers; well held in handicaps of late.

PANSY POE – 3/10: Has talent but regressive since leaving J.A. Stack; maybe one for later.

BALLYSAX LIL’ MICK – 2/10: Longstanding maiden, doesn’t have the gear for this.



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Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis

Viamonte – 8/10: Fast pace ideal, hitting the frame regularly, knocking on the door.

Lismacbryan Hill – 8/10: Still progressing, race looks set up perfectly for her kick.

Mint Man – 7/10: Reliable and honest, but slightly vulnerable to turn of foot.

My Girl Sioux – 7/10: Likes it here, but win last time flattered by track position.

Best Suggestion – 6/10: Likely improver; lightly raced in context of this field.

Only Spoofing – 5/10: Capable at best but needs perfect race to win nowadays.

Devil’s Angel – 4/10: Not impossible on past form but too inconsistent.

La La Lucrative – 4/10: Off the boil, trainer quiet.

Twinkling Toes – 3/10: Better as 6f type and poor reappearance.

Eruption – 3/10: Too many questions.

Pansy Poe – 3/10: Well held on both starts this year.

Ballysax Lil’ Mick – 2/10: No recent spark or form edge.


> Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.




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Each-Way Angles (12 runners)

With 3 places and possibly 4 in some books, LISMACBRYAN HILL looks a rock-solid each-way play. She’s shaping well and the race sets up perfectly for her.


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Private Tissue Estimate

Horse Odds

Viamonte 7/2
Lismacbryan Hill 4/1
Mint Man 5/1
My Girl Sioux 6/1
Best Suggestion 8/1
Only Spoofing 12/1
Devil’s Angel 16/1
La La Lucrative 20/1
Eruption 25/1
Twinkling Toes 25/1
Pansy Poe 33/1
Ballysax Lil’ Mick 50/1


> Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.




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Summary + Professional Punter View

This is a strongly-run handicap, and the setup clearly benefits hold-up or tracking types. Those who sat off it last time like Viamonte and Lismacbryan Hill come to the fore. The race lacks standout class, but both main fancies are reasonably treated and in form.


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Smart Play

Win Bet: VIAMONTE – Rock-solid consistent form in strong races; ready to convert.

Each-Way Saver: LISMACBRYAN HILL – Strong-finisher in a race that plays to her strengths.