Pace Forecast: Weak
Pace Bias: At this trip, hold-up horses generally fare best at Navan – but in the absence of a strong pace, forward-goers like RED KING may benefit tactically.


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Strongest Contenders & Tactical Setup:

RED KING (TFR 80) – Promising

Bred to improve with distance (close relation to Group-class milers/stayers), and latest Leopardstown second was a career-best, notably under enterprising tactics.

Blinkers appeared to sharpen him up, and now makes his handicap debut with a 3yo allowance against older rivals.

Strong chance of controlling a weak pace from near the front. That gives him a tactical edge, despite long-term stamina being over 1½m.

Ideal conditions (ground/trip), and upside remains on only his sixth start.


DAONETHATGOTAWAY (78) – Proven

Won two of last three (Dundalk & Bellewstown), most recently from off the pace in a big field over 1m. Now tries 10f again, which he’s bred to stay.

Tough, genuine, and fit. Can track the pace if needed and is tactically versatile.

May not have the same upside as Red King, but very likeable profile in small fields.


DANCING STEVE (79) – Progressive

On the upgrade based on two narrow seconds recently, including a close defeat over 1m2f on turf at Down Royal.

Can pull hard early, and there’s some chance he could be left exposed tactically without a proper gallop.

Trainer is ice cold currently, but statistically profitable with single runners at flat meetings.



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Main Danger:

THEOPHILOS (81) – Proven

Bounced back to form with a good second at Naas, but that came from off the pace in a strongly-run race.

Weak pace here looks a negative – may struggle to get going in time unless others go hard early.

Value type if pace collapses, but needs things to fall right.



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Interesting Outsider:

EASTERN WIND (78) – Regressive

Won at Bellewstown in April, but was tailed off at Leopardstown last time. That form looks weak in context, and he’s now up in grade.

Another forward type, but more likely to be a pace-maker than a danger unless finding unexpected improvement.



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Runner Ratings & Suitability:

Red King: 8.5/10 – Tactically advantaged, weight-for-age edge, form peaking.

Daonethatgotaway: 8/10 – Genuine, in form, well placed again.

Dancing Steve: 7/10 – Going the right way, but cold stable and may need a truer pace.

Theophilos: 6.5/10 – May be best suited by pace meltdown, not certain to get it.

Eastern Wind: 5/10 – Opposable based on recent form, regressive profile.


Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for 3yo handicappers like Red King making their second start in blinkers.
Watch out for quick returners like Dancing Steve – they can strike when in the groove.


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Each-Way Angles:

Not applicable – 5 runners, win-only race.


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Private Tissue Estimate:

Horse Tissue Odds

Red King 2/1
Daonethatgotaway 11/4
Dancing Steve 10/3
Theophilos 6/1
Eastern Wind 14/1



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Summary + Smart Play:

A small field where tactics will dictate outcomes. Red King has shaped well on every start over further and looked like a winner-in-waiting last time when given a positive ride. With few rivals here and a tactical setup in his favour, he’s primed to take advantage. Daonethatgotaway is rock-solid and a real threat if the leader overdoes things.


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Smart Play:

Win Bet: Red King – prominent racer with blinkers back on, gets weight and could dominate.

Cover Option: Daonethatgotaway – game and consistent, a danger if Red King folds under pressure.