Pace Forecast: Strong | Field Size: 12 runners


—

🔍 1. Adjusted Ratings

Horse TFR OR Recent Best RPR (estimate) Notes

Chopsticks 68 52 65 Consistent; 3 straight top 4s
Lisnadill 63 59 67 Big Naas run; clear of rest
Warazam 66 51 64 (in 2024) 7-month absence
Kartayaz 65 41 61 Shaped back to form at Bellewstown
Clever And Classy 62 59 64 3yo, off the mark last time
Tartaraghan 62 56 62 Forward style, better latest
Asisaid 63 48 <60 Well held in last two starts
I Do Believe 61 58 62 Improved run in claimer
Ranko Express 63 57 63 Some solid Dundalk form
Others (Madam Alkaterina, Paint The Moon, Wonderwalk) rated sub-60.


📌 Adjusted top rating: Lisnadill (67), close behind: Chopsticks, Warazam.


—

🧩 2. Race Conditions Match

Stayers at 10f: Chopsticks, Lisnadill, Kartayaz, Warazam, Tartaraghan all proven.

3yos on the up: Clever And Classy and Lisnadill both running into form at the right time.

Likely pace shape: Tartaraghan, Clever And Classy and Kartayaz all likely to press on. Strong gallop expected.


⏩ Well-suited types in context:
✅ Chopsticks (track + trip + running style)
✅ Lisnadill (form + class + 3yo + stamina)
✅ Kartayaz (class drop + bounce-back)


—

🧠 3. Tactical Fit / Pace Bias

Pace Forecast: Strong

Timeform Pace Note: This should play to the strengths of hold-up types like Chopsticks, while being a negative for front-runners like Warazam.

Draw Bias: None indicated.


✅ Beneficiaries: Chopsticks, Lisnadill
⚠️ Potential negatives: Warazam, Tartaraghan (pace might catch them late)


—

🔥 4. Form & Fitness

Hot Profiles:

Lisnadill: Clear second last time, improving, well-bred

Chopsticks: Solid turf and AW runs, suited by strong pace

Clever And Classy: Off the mark latest but stamina a doubt

Kartayaz: 8yo but hinted at a revival


Concerns:

Warazam off since November 2024

Madam Alkaterina / Wonderwalk well held repeatedly




—

🧬 5. Connections & Intent

Positive Indicators:

D. McDonogh booked for Clever And Classy

Billy Lee for Lisnadill

Chopsticks continues with D.W. O’Connor (reliable booking)


Trainer Trends:

McConnell (Chopsticks) has good recent form

J.S. Bolger (Clever And Classy) won 2 of last 9 runnings




—

📉 6. Market Setup

Timeform Forecast:

4/1 Lisnadill

11/2 Clever And Classy, Warazam

13/2 Chopsticks

11/1 bar



🧠 Overlay potential: Chopsticks (strong profile, solid price); Kartayaz (each-way bounce); I Do Believe (unexposed).


—

🌟 7. Extra Angles

Pace Shape Favouring Closers

Recent strong figures vs historical ratings:

Kartayaz and Chopsticks trending better than OR


Value scope if Warazam is undercooked



—

💸 8. Value & Tissue

Private Tissue Estimate:

9/2 Chopsticks

5/1 Lisnadill

6/1 Clever And Classy

13/2 Kartayaz

8/1 Warazam

10/1 I Do Believe

14/1 bar



—

🧠 Smart Play

Main Win Bet: CHOPSTICKS – strong pace set-up, holding form, never out of top 4 last five

Main Danger: LISNADILL – clear progress, lightly raced 3yo, big Naas effort

Each-Way Dart: KARTAYAZ – well-handicapped if latest run marks a revival