Pace & Tactical Overview: This is a 15-runner staying handicap hurdle with a very weak forecast pace, which heavily favours horses who race prominently. BROKEN ICE and TRALEE GIRL are best placed in terms of early positioning. Strong staying closers like SPELLACY’S CROSS may struggle unless the leaders overdo it late.


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Leading Contenders:

EMILY IN PARIS [120] – Lightly raced at this trip and came back to form with a good second at Tipperary. She stays 3m well and will handle conditions, but the slow pace forecast is a concern for a filly who usually settles off the speed.

MAGS NELSON [119] – Improving 6yo mare who won nicely at Tramore before a decent third here behind Boston Rajj. Goes on good ground and stays well. Better suited than some to a tactical race.

SPELLACY’S CROSS [125] – A half-length second at Roscommon last time over 3m, looking to relish the step up. That was a career-best, and although he’s held up, he’s well-handicapped if ridden more prominently.

FORTUNE THE BRAVE [124] – Has improved for the step up in trip and was a solid second at Hexham last time. Still unexposed in handicaps and shapes like a thorough stayer.


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Others Worth Note:

SPINNING WEB [121] – Winner over fences but underwhelming back hurdling recently. The drop in class helps, but he can be in-and-out. Mixed tactical profile – might find the race unfolding against him.

THE LITTLE YANK [119+] – Likeable and dependable veteran who’s best off a strong gallop. Might be forced too far back here. Effective at this level, but better in more strongly-run races.

EVANS SECRET [122] – Backed last time but flopped. Prior third here reads well and he’ll be happier back at Sligo. Has a patchy profile but on a going day he’s a threat.

BROKEN ICE [122] – Often races near the front and might get an easy lead here. Needs to bounce back from a poor effort, but is a course scorer and is handicapped to get involved.


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Suitability Ratings (Out of 10):

Horse Score

Fortune The Brave 8
Mags Nelson 8
Spellacy’s Cross 8
Emily In Paris 7
Evans Secret 7
Broken Ice 6
Spinning Web 6
The Little Yank 6
Ballyglass Beauty 5
Brilliant Light 5
Captain P 5
Irina’s Path 4
Mon Storm 2



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Trends & Trainer Pointers:

John McConnell (Broken Ice & Fortune the Brave) runs two, both with tactical suitability.

Recent winners of this race (like I Am Spider Man and Menindee) were relatively lightly raced or progressive over staying trips.

Market moves are often significant with improving handicappers – especially those upped in trip or returning from minor issues.



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Private Tissue Estimate:

Horse Odds

Mags Nelson 5/1
Fortune The Brave 11/2
Spellacy’s Cross 11/2
Emily In Paris 6/1
Evans Secret 8/1
Broken Ice 10/1
Spinning Web 12/1
The Little Yank 14/1
Others 20/1+



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Summary:

In a slowly-run contest, MAGS NELSON appeals as a tactically versatile mare who’s already a course scorer and in solid form. FORTUNE THE BRAVE is unexposed and likely to relish the test, while SPELLACY’S CROSS has strong recent form but may need things to fall right tactically.


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Smart Play:

Win Bet: MAGS NELSON – Improving mare with ideal conditions and a strong Sligo run last time.

Each-Way Saver: FORTUNE THE BRAVE – Still progressing and looks a stayer of promise in the making.

This is a competitive handicap with a tactical bias, so keeping an eye on late market moves is advised.