Conditions & Tactical View: A very strong pace is expected in this 11-runner sprint, which is notable as hold-up horses are normally disadvantaged at this trip on the Tapeta at Southwell. However, the anticipated burn-up on the front end means those who race just off the pace could be ideally placed late. No draw bias applies.


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Leading Contenders:

FLUORESCENCE [107p] – Progressive filly from an in-form yard. Easy course winner as a 2yo and bolted up on return at Redcar before a good second in a warm Ripon handicap. Fast tempo should suit her late style if she’s not caught too far back. Still improving and now gets the strong test she needs.

SHOWERING [108] – Steadily improving profile with wins at Newcastle and Yarmouth. Ninth in a big York sprint was better than it looked – underperformed the market but went off half the Betfair SP. Likely to be ridden off the pace again and might need some luck in running.

BROSAY [109] – Often overlooked but very solid on AW, including a good second at Kempton and unlucky effort at Sandown. Prominent runner and well drawn to stalk the pace. Could capitalise on a collapse up front.

LOOM [108] – Can be keen but solid sprint form this term, notably second to The Man at York. Wide trip beat him last time. With a good pace and cover, could go close – if settling better.

LEXINGTON BLITZ [110] – Plenty of early speed but overdid it last time and paid the price. His hold-up style isn’t suited by the track or the projected setup, and this could again be too frenetic.


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Other Notables:

MR LIGHTSIDE [106] – Typically forward-going; efforts at Ascot and York show ability but might again find a race like this too quick early and late.

KULLAZAIN [107] – AW form is limited, but pedigree and early wins point to potential. Will need to step up again.

AMESTRIS [108] – Hit peak at Haydock latest; best form at 5f and well handicapped, though drawn wide.

AGAINST THE WIND [106] – Early speed likely to see him involved for a long way but vulnerable late.

JUNGLE DRUMS [106?] – Meydan runs were poor. Can front run but needs to bounce back sharply.

STORM CALL – Below form recently and lacks class in this field.



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Suitability Ratings (Out of 10):

Horse Track Trip Pace Suit Form Total

Fluorescence 8 9 8 9 34
Brosay 9 8 9 7 33
Showering 7 8 6 9 30
Loom 7 8 6 8 29
Lexington Blitz 6 9 4 9 28
Amestris 7 9 6 6 28
Mr Lightside 8 8 6 6 28
Kullazain 6 8 7 7 28
Against the Wind 7 9 6 5 27
Jungle Drums 7 9 5 5 26
Storm Call 6 8 5 4 23



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Private Tissue Estimate:

Horse Odds

Fluorescence 4/1
Brosay 6/1
Showering 13/2
Loom 7/1
Amestris 10/1
Lexington Blitz 12/1
Mr Lightside 12/1
Kullazain 14/1
Against the Wind 16/1
Jungle Drums 20/1
Storm Call 33/1



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Summary:

The very strong early pace could undo many pace pressers and give a window to those with a late kick – FLUORESCENCE fits that bill best. She’s unexposed, travels strongly, and already a course winner. BROSAY, with solid AW credentials and a good pitch, is a live danger. SHOWERING remains of interest but may be pace compromised.


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Smart Play:

Win Bet: FLUORESCENCE – progressive, course-proven, and setup looks ideal.

Each-Way Saver: BROSAY – solid profile and tactically suited if he holds a handy position.