Going: Soft
Field Size: 6
Tactical Shape: Trinity College is the likely front-runner; pace expected to be steady to fair.

Pace & Draw Angles

Longchamp’s outer 1m4f turf start on soft can disadvantage prominent types drawn wide if the tempo lifts late.

Trinity College (stall 5) will go forward; potential tactical control unless harried by Uther (stall 3) or New Ground (stall 2).

Hold-up danger: Surabad and Frankly Good Cen rely on late runs and may be vulnerable if this is steadily run.



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Runner-by-Runner Ratings (Suitability, Profile, Ratings, Fitness)

No. Horse Trainer Jockey Timeform Rating Score /10 Comments

1 Surabad F-H Graffard M. Barzalona 117 6 Proven stamina, yard flying, but ground/trip may not bring improvement.
2 Leffard J-C Rouget C. Demuro 115 7 Peak form was Listed 2nd over 1m2f; unexposed over 12f and bred to stay. Interesting outsider.
3 New Ground H-F Devin C. Keane 126 8 Close Derby 4th. Reliable profile. Should handle the ground and has tactical speed.
4 Trinity College Aidan O’Brien R. Moore 127 9 Peak form recently; potential to dominate on soft from the front. Ryan Moore retains. Proven & progressive.
5 Uther C. Ferland M. Guyon 117 7 Lightly raced, bred for the trip, improving. Half-brother won this in 2024. Ground a question.
6 Frankly Good Cen V. Head A. Madamet 123 6 Beaten in soft-ground trials; scopey but must improve plenty. Connections respected.



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Profile Types

Proven: Trinity College, New Ground

Progressive: Uther, Leffard

Promising: Frankly Good Cen (untapped on pedigree)



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Trainer & Trends

Aidan O’Brien has a strong record in this race with multiple wins.

J-C Rouget trained Sottsass to win in 2019.

Timeform Notes: “If Trinity College gets an uncontested lead, he’ll be hard to pass.”

Pedigree Watch: Uther is a half-brother to Sosie, winner of this race last year.



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Private Tissue (fair odds estimate)

Trinity College – 2/1

New Ground – 5/2

Uther – 6/1

Leffard – 10/1

Frankly Good Cen – 12/1

Surabad – 14/1



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Summary

This year’s Grand Prix de Paris looks a tactically influenced 6-runner Group 1 in testing ground. Trinity College is the one to beat if allowed to dictate, having found significant improvement since stepping up to 12f. New Ground brings strong Derby form and represents solid opposition. Leffard could be the value angle stepping up in trip for a trainer with past success in this. Uther remains unexposed and dangerous to underestimate, especially with the family angle.


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Smart Play (Professional View)

Win bet: Trinity College – progressive, tactically advantaged, and trainer in top Group 1 form.

Saver (Win/Place): Leffard – pedigree suggests stamina, and Rouget’s patience often pays in the second half of the season.


Watch the market for Frankly Good Cen – if backed late, that could signal confidence from a shrewd yard.