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Strongest Contenders, Main Dangers, Interesting Outsiders

Top Contender – PORTARLINGTON (IRE):
Dual hurdle winner this season, including a competitive amateur race. Not disgraced in a Roscommon claimer latest despite giving weight to younger horses. Tactically suited (often races prominently), and the trip/ground are within range. Stable’s choice of amateur jockey is a consistent booking. Proven and in-form.

Main Danger – ORDER OF THE DANCE (IRE):
Unlucky last time when short of room; earlier placed form behind Malbay Madness and I Am Mimi looks strong for this grade. Has improved sharply in recent starts, earning a 111 adjusted TFR at Kilbeggan. Slight stamina query, but shaping like it’s within reach. Progressive.

Interesting Outsider – LOOK DONT TOUCH (IRE):
Bounced back with a strong 4th of 20 at Punchestown. Hit an in-running low well under SP, confirming he travelled notably well. Stays well, appreciates quick ground, and likely to be competitive again if granted a smoother passage. Proven and potentially well treated.

Dark Horse – GORTMORE LADY (IRE):
Much better run when fourth at Tipperary last time in a stronger field than this. Only her second run for Tony Martin and could progress again over a longer trip. Unexposed at the distance.

Hold-Up Risk – TYSON (GER):
Good second at Fairyhouse earlier in the year but hard to catch right and not obviously suited by today’s pace profile. Needs things to fall into place. Inconsistent and tactical risk.

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Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis

• PORTARLINGTON (IRE): 8/10 – Well treated; pace angle positive; consistent at this level.
• ORDER OF THE DANCE (IRE): 7.5/10 – Improved sharply; unlucky last time; could go close if staying.
• LOOK DONT TOUCH (IRE): 7.5/10 – Recent run upgraded; stays; thrives off even pace.
• GORTMORE LADY (IRE): 7/10 – Big step forward latest; stamina asset and trainer switch interesting.
• ANNIE AGNEW: 6/10 – Layoff a concern, but solid juvenile form if ready.
• TYSON (GER): 5.5/10 – Not ruled out, but best form is back in January; profile patchy.
• FLASH COLLONGES (FR): 4.5/10 – Regressive and inconsistent; hard to trust despite past ability.
• HALLA PAROISTE (IRE): 4/10 – Claimer form weak and has poor strike-rate.
• MYSTIC MILLY (IRE): 2.5/10 – Very modest; outclassed on all known form.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form jumpers returning quickly; they can be hot.

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Each-Way Angles (9 Runners)

• LOOK DONT TOUCH (IRE) – Eye-catching return; value if 6/1+.
• GORTMORE LADY (IRE) – Progressive profile since stable switch; place claims.

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Private Tissue Estimate (Odds)

• PORTARLINGTON (IRE): 3/1
• ORDER OF THE DANCE (IRE): 4/1
• LOOK DONT TOUCH (IRE): 5/1
• GORTMORE LADY (IRE): 11/2
• ANNIE AGNEW: 8/1
• TYSON (GER): 10/1
• FLASH COLLONGES (FR): 16/1
• HALLA PAROISTE (IRE): 20/1
• MYSTIC MILLY (IRE): 50/1

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.

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Summary + Professional Punter View (Smart Play)

This looks a modest heat but a few are trending upward. PORTARLINGTON ticks most boxes for a staying handicap: consistent, tactically suited, and effective under the claiming jockey. ORDER OF THE DANCE would have gone closer last time but for traffic and continues to improve. LOOK DONT TOUCH has the profile of a dangerous improver, while GORTMORE LADY is respected on a trainer angle.

Smart Play:
Win – PORTARLINGTON (IRE) – Clear tactical fit with solid amateur form in the book.
Each-Way Saver – LOOK DONT TOUCH (IRE) – Rebounded with strong effort last time; running style well matched to pace scenario.

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