Pace Angles:
The predicted pace is weak, which should favour those with the ability to race prominently or adapt tactically. Hold-up types, such as UNSPEAKABLE, may struggle to land a blow unless the race becomes unexpectedly testing. SIDE STEPPER and KARAVOMYLOS are likely to press forward and could be advantaged.


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Strongest Contenders:

LUCKY ROSE (IRE) – Progressive. A lightly raced mare who is improving with experience over fences. She won with something to spare at Newton Abbot (25.8f) last time and handles various ground types. A weak pace wouldn’t inconvenience her, and she stays thoroughly. She remains on an upward curve and should be competitive again off just 3 lb higher.

MCGREGORS CHARGE – Promising. Still a maiden but has placed in 4 of 5 chase starts and was just touched off over shorter at Worcester. This step up in trip looks ideal, given his stout pedigree and how he finishes his races. Should go close if finding a smooth passage from mid-division.


Main Dangers:

KARAVOMYLOS (IRE) – Promising. Lightly raced over fences, only one start back from a 21-month layoff and showed potential despite lacking fluency. Sean Bowen rides (23% strike rate here), and the horse is bred to improve for the longer trip. Could take a big step forward with experience and fitness under his belt.

THAIS TOIR (FR) – Interesting. Placed here in a novice handicap chase on reappearance from well out of the handicap. Has had wind surgery and won a point in May. Lightly raced recently but capable if reproducing latest form.


Interesting Outsiders:

ZOFFALEE (FR) – Regressive. Once useful, long winless streak and showed temperament again last time, but shaped better than result. If jumping holds up, has ability to go close in this grade.

SIDE STEPPER (IRE) – Exposed. Won here in May but shaped one-paced last time and has a history of trading short and fading. Still has early tactical speed which might keep him involved.



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Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis:

LUCKY ROSE: 8.5/10 – Trip and ground ideal, unexposed, progressive chaser.

MCGREGORS CHARGE: 8/10 – Stays well, step up should suit, solid profile.

KARAVOMYLOS: 7.5/10 – Capable improver if sharpening jumping.

THAIS TOIR: 7/10 – Shaped well latest, unexposed, minor fitness doubt.

ZOFFALEE: 6.5/10 – Talent there, risky proposition.

LELANTOS: 6/10 – Yard stat positive but never convinced over fences.

SIDE STEPPER: 5.5/10 – Often flatters to deceive; potential pace player.

FAERIE CUTLASS: 5/10 – Pulled up 2 starts ago, recent effort uninspiring.

UNSPEAKABLE: 4.5/10 – Hold-up style not suited by pace, inconsistent.

MINI FORTUNE: 4/10 – Strong point form but has shown little under Rules.

DEADLY MISSILE: 3.5/10 – Poor overall strike rate, minor place claims only.


Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form chasers returning quickly; they can be hot.


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Each-Way Angles:

With 11 runners, KARAVOMYLOS and THAIS TOIR make each-way appeal. Both have untapped potential over fences and decent staying form.


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Private Tissue Estimate:

LUCKY ROSE – 7/2

MCGREGORS CHARGE – 4/1

KARAVOMYLOS – 13/2

THAIS TOIR – 7/1

ZOFFALEE – 10/1

LELANTOS – 12/1

SIDE STEPPER – 12/1

FAERIE CUTLASS – 16/1

UNSPEAKABLE – 16/1

MINI FORTUNE – 20/1

DEADLY MISSILE – 25/1


Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.


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Summary:

A muddling chase likely run at a steady pace. LUCKY ROSE is a straightforward, progressive mare well suited to conditions and tactically versatile. MCGREGORS CHARGE is knocking hard and could find the necessary improvement over this longer trip. KARAVOMYLOS is worth monitoring closely for market strength on just his second chase start.

Smart Play:
Win: LUCKY ROSE
Each-Way Saver: KARAVOMYLOS (if 13/2+)