Pace Forecast:
The pace is expected to be very weak, which will notably hinder confirmed stayers or those dependent on a true gallop. Celestial Reign and Lunar Power look best placed to benefit from a steady tempo. Gastronomy, who can travel keenly, may struggle if held up off a crawl.

Draw Bias:
No draw bias is expected over this trip at Thirsk.


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Strongest Contenders + Main Dangers + Interesting Outsiders

FLEUR DE MER (Fair and resurgent) – 81 TFR
Back on track latest when fourth at Newcastle. Has a good all-weather record and now returns to turf with Tudhope booked. Will be suited if she’s ridden positively. Proven on the surface and shaping well.

GASTRONOMY (Well-handicapped but hold-up risk) – 83 TFR
Dangerous if the race collapses late, but his tendency to find little off the bridle and the likely slow pace make him vulnerable. Multiple signs of temperament. Exposed but capable at this level.

CELESTIAL REIGN (Improving hurdler back to the Flat) – 80 TFR
Has taken well to hurdling for Micky Hammond and could now show more back on the Flat over this trip. If he can track the pace, he could benefit most from the race shape. Unexposed in this sphere.

DAARIS (Capable and straightforward) – 79 TFR
Lightly raced this season and shaped better than the bare result at Newmarket. A likely player in a race lacking depth and pace pressure. Proven over trip and ground.

GREEN TEAM (Capable but laboured last time) – 79 TFR
Two AW wins in spring but underwhelming on return at Kempton. Needs to bounce back and might need a truer gallop than he’ll get here. Fair but not progressive.

LUNAR POWER (Tactically advantaged outsider) – 79 TFR
Often goes forward and might be asked to dictate here. Has a mixed record and tends to fade under pressure but could place if left alone. Longshot with upside in this shape.



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Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis

Fleur de Mer: 7/10 – Back in form, ground/trip fine, will need to travel more prominently.

Gastronomy: 6/10 – Well treated, but vulnerable tactically.

Celestial Reign: 7/10 – Improving, unexposed at trip, nicely set up.

Daaris: 6/10 – Straightforward and consistent; small place player.

Green Team: 5/10 – Below best last time, unproven in muddling races.

Lunar Power: 5/10 – Likely pace angle; might hang on for a share.


Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form stayers returning quickly; they can be hot.


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Each-Way Angles

No each-way angle advised with only 6 runners.


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Private Tissue Estimate

Fleur de Mer – 3/1

Celestial Reign – 4/1

Gastronomy – 5/1

Daaris – 5/1

Green Team – 6/1

Lunar Power – 10/1


Market watch advised for runners making their second start after a break.


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Summary + Professional Punter View (Smart Play)

A trappy contest with little guaranteed pace. Fleur de Mer appears to be returning to form and has a good record when able to travel sweetly, while Celestial Reign is fascinating back on the Flat and could thrive in this tactical setup. Gastronomy is weighted to go close but remains a risky proposition at short odds.

Smart Play:
Win Bet – Celestial Reign (unexposed back on Flat, will be suited by steady gallop)
Saver – Fleur de Mer (coming to the boil, rider a positive)


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