Pace Angles:
A very weak pace is expected, strongly favouring prominent racers and those who can dictate. Front-runners or handy types will be hard to peg back unless the gallop unexpectedly lifts.

Draw Angles: Not relevant in National Hunt, but with only five runners, tactical positioning will be paramount on this sharp track.

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Strongest Contenders:

• KOPA KILANA (IRE) – Proven, New Yard Angle
  Long-standing maiden but highly consistent at or around this grade. Now debuts for Olly Murphy with Sean Bowen up (23% strike rate here), and looked in good nick when third in a seller on seasonal return. Stays well, front-runner suited by lack of pace. Major chance on stable switch.
• EZ TIGER (IRE) – Horse for Course, Improving
  C&D winner last time, dictating from the front and beating a next-time-out scorer. Lightly raced for his age and seems to be progressing under Bryan Carver. Likely to adopt a similar positive ride which suits the race shape again.

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Main Dangers:

• ZAFAAN (IRE) – Promising, Flat Speed
  Solid hurdling efforts and Flat win two starts back confirm fitness. Slight concern with the very slow early fractions—he may get caught behind the pace. Still, on his second handicap hurdle run and open to improvement.
• PLAY PRETEND (IRE) – Unreliable, but Potential
  Often needs things to go his way, but form has snippets of promise in better races. The unseat last time can be excused. Hold-up type, not ideally suited by the predicted crawl, though.
• MIX OF CLOVER – Regressive, but Fit
  Fair effort after a long break behind Got Grey, but hard to catch right and career profile is now patchy. One-paced rather than a turn-of-foot type.

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Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis:

• Kopa Kilana: 8.5/10 – Best chance of an overdue win, stable and track suit.
• Ez Tiger: 8/10 – In-form, strong front-runner, conditions ideal.
• Zafaan: 7/10 – Solid, but possibly compromised tactically.
• Play Pretend: 6/10 – Would need pace collapse or lenient lead.
• Mix of Clover: 5/10 – Best efforts behind him, slow race unlikely to suit.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.

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Private Tissue Estimate:

• Kopa Kilana – 7/4
• Ez Tiger – 11/4
• Zafaan – 4/1
• Play Pretend – 13/2
• Mix of Clover – 8/1

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.

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Summary + Smart Play:

A tactical race looms with no obvious front-runner bar EZ TIGER, but KOPA KILANA can sit close and will be ridden to strike early by Bowen. He looks primed for a big effort following a stable switch to Olly Murphy. EZ TIGER is the clear threat if able to dictate again.

Smart Play:

• Win Selection: KOPA KILANA – sharp yard change, best set-up.
• Exacta Saver: KOPA KILANA / EZ TIGER – the two with the best tactical setup in a race lacking early pace.