Pace Angles:
The forecast pace is even, and historically this trip around Leopardstown favours those racing handily. MOLTO AMICHI appears ideally drawn to take advantage of a handy sit, while COMFORT LINE looks tactically disadvantaged from off the pace.
Strongest Contenders + Main Dangers + Interesting Outsiders:
- ESHERANN – Promising, Unexposed Handicap Debutant
Improving steadily with each start and delivered a gutsy win in first-time cheekpieces at Naas. Stays the trip well, bred to keep progressing, and now makes a well-timed switch to handicaps off 86. Cheekpieces retained. Hot yard. Looks a well-handicapped improver. - MOLTO AMICHI – Proven, Consistent, Track Specialist
Highly consistent without winning and ran with credit off similar marks. Handily drawn and likely to be ridden prominently by Colin Keane, who has a 25% strike rate when riding handy types. Market always respectful of his chances. Has some form upsides. - ONEMOREDANCE – Progressive Filly, But 10 lb Rise a Test
Two wins from last three starts, latest success visually impressive at Tipperary. She’s upwardly mobile but now takes on older horses from a revised mark. Faces a sterner tactical and class test here. - DANCING TEAPOT – Improving, Scope for Further Progress
Maiden winner with decent form in big-field handicaps. Forgive Royal Ascot run given trouble. Yard excels with 3yos and this race has seen light-weight 3yo winners. Well-handicapped if back to best. - LONGBOURN – Course Winner, Dropping Mark
Last year’s winner of this race off 94 and now returns off 93. Recent runs only fair but hinted at life in the legs and Leopardstown record (course/distance form) is notable. Not discounted.
Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis:
- Esherann: 9/10 – Big scope off opening mark, tactically versatile, improving.
- Molto Amichi: 8.5/10 – Solid form base, ideally positioned, strong jockey angle.
- Onemoredance: 7.5/10 – On the up, needs to prove she handles older horses.
- Dancing Teapot: 7.5/10 – Well-handicapped 3yo, one to watch if market vibes are positive.
- Longbourn: 7/10 – Track suits, last year’s winner, handicapper relenting.
- No More Porter: 6/10 – Runs better than figures suggest, but needs luck in running.
- Cheers Again: 6/10 – Back to form last time, could run into the frame from a good draw.
- Shigar: 5.5/10 – Hints of ability but risky profile and hard to place tactically.
- Comfort Line: 5/10 – Poor tactical setup, form decline.
Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form 3yo handicappers progressing quickly; they can be hot.
Each-Way Angles:
With 9 runners declared, each-way betting is viable:
- DANCING TEAPOT represents a strong each-way value if she gets back to her early-season promise.
- LONGBOURN is a sneaky place angle on course form and class drop.
Private Tissue Estimate:
- Esherann – 2/1
- Molto Amichi – 4/1
- Onemoredance – 5/1
- Dancing Teapot – 7/1
- Longbourn – 9/1
- Cheers Again – 14/1
- No More Porter – 16/1
- Shigar – 20/1
- Comfort Line – 25/1
Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.
Summary + Smart Play:
ESHERANN ticks all the boxes as a well-bred, progressive handicap debutant from a top yard. MOLTO AMICHI will have no excuses tactically and is solid in every respect. DANCING TEAPOT looks the value alternative if she reverts to her better form.
Smart Play:
- Win Selection: ESHERANN – Unexposed, progressive, could rate higher than this level.
- Each-Way Saver: DANCING TEAPOT – Improving, drop back in class, fair mark.
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