1. 14:25 Newton Abbot – Carl To The Bar Handicap Hurdle (Class 4, 2m 167y, 0-110)

• Pace Angle: The pace forecast for this race is Very Weak. This suggests it will be a slowly-run affair, which is expected to suit those ridden prominently. Specifically, SERGEANT FURY is tactically favoured because he typically races close up, unlike GORE POINT and BOBBY’S FORTUNE who are more patiently ridden.

• Estimated Tissue Odds:

    ◦ SERGEANT FURY – 13/8

    ◦ BOBBY’S FORTUNE – 2/1

    ◦ GORE POINT – 3/1

• Smart Play:

    ◦ Win Selection: SERGEANT FURY is the top pick due to his positional advantage in a slowly-run race and solid form lines.

    ◦ Saver: BOBBY’S FORTUNE is considered a progressive type, and today’s race may be more suitable for him than his quick turnaround from yesterday.

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2. 14:57 Newton Abbot – Zero To Exit Juvenile Hurdle (Class 4, 2m 167y, 3yo only)

• Pace Angle: The pace forecast is Uncontested. This indicates that LORD (GER) is the sole front-runner and is likely to get an easy lead, giving him a significant tactical edge to control the race from the front.

• Estimated Tissue Odds:

    ◦ DIGNAM – 5/6

    ◦ LORD – 3/1

    ◦ MANYANA BLUE – 7/1

    ◦ GREEN ASSET – 14/1

    ◦ IT’S LIFE – 20/1

• Smart Play:

    ◦ Win Selection: DIGNAM is chosen for his classy Flat form and coming from top connections for juvenile hurdles.

    ◦ Saver: LORD is tactically advantaged and has joined the right yard, making him a strong alternative.

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3. 15:32 Newton Abbot – Celebrating 50 Years Trading Dick Oliver Ltd Handicap Chase (Class 5, 3m 1f 170y, 0-105)

• Pace Angle: The pace forecast is Very Weak. This means there will be little pace, and prominent runners hold a distinct tactical edge. INVICTUS ALLEN is considered best positioned tactically, while BACKINACTION, who usually races off the pace, may be at a slight disadvantage.

• Estimated Tissue Odds:

    ◦ BACKINACTION – 6/5

    ◦ MY GIRL KATIE – 11/4

    ◦ INVICTUS ALLEN – 11/2

    ◦ GREAT D’ANGE – 13/2

    ◦ TESTFLIGHT – 10/1

• Smart Play:

    ◦ Win Selection: BACKINACTION is the clear form pick, with his penalty unlikely to anchor him in this grade.

    ◦ Saver: MY GIRL KATIE has a reliable profile and handles the track and trip well.

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4. 16:07 Newton Abbot – Jack Challis Turns 12 Handicap Hurdle (Class 5, 2m 2f 110y, 0–100)

• Pace Angle: The pace forecast is Weak. A steadily-run race is likely to develop, which will favour prominent runners. SQUARE DU ROULE should benefit from this setup, while KARANNELLE, a hold-up type, may be tactically disadvantaged.

• Estimated Tissue Odds:

    ◦ SASSIFIED – 3/1

    ◦ SQUARE DU ROULE – 5/1

    ◦ COLONEL LESLEY – 11/2

    ◦ NEVER SEEN AGAIN – 13/2

    ◦ CHARLIE MY BOY – 7/1

    ◦ KARANNELLE – 8/1

    ◦ Others – 12/1+

• Smart Play:

    ◦ Win Selection: SASSIFIED is the horse to beat due to his solid form, ideal setup, and proven ability at the course.

    ◦ Each-Way Saver: SQUARE DU ROULE is tactically well placed and has a progressive form profile.

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5. 16:42 Newton Abbot – Brendon Soper Memorial Handicap Hurdle (Class 4, 3m 2f 105y, 0–110)

• Pace Angle: The pace forecast is Very Weak. A slowly-run affair is expected, likely favouring prominent racers. PIRATES’ TALE holds a tactical edge, whereas closers like SPITALFIELD may again be vulnerable to how the race unfolds.

• Estimated Tissue Odds:

    ◦ SPITALFIELD – 7/4

    ◦ IMPECUNIOUS – 3/1

    ◦ DEAR RALPHY – 9/2

    ◦ SAM’S AMOUR – 11/2

    ◦ HALIFAX – 8/1

    ◦ PIRATES’ TALE – 16/1

    ◦ DORRELLS PIERJI – 33/1

• Smart Play:

    ◦ Win Selection: SPITALFIELD is the primary choice, possessing strong and consistent recent form and being the clear top figure performer.

    ◦ Each-Way Saver: DEAR RALPHY is tactically suited and holds solid staying form, making him a good each-way prospect.

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6. 17:17 Newton Abbot – Stephen Hayes “Jagger” Memorial Handicap Chase (Class 5, 2m 4f 216y, 0–100)

• Pace Angle: The pace forecast is Weak. This implies another steadily-run race, which should benefit those with tactical speed and the ability to race close-up. LA QUARITE stands to gain most if the race turns tactical, while hold-up types like IMPERIAL MEASURE could be caught out again.

• Estimated Tissue Odds:

    ◦ LA QUARITE – 5/2

    ◦ MERSEY STREET – 7/2

    ◦ CATBOY – 4/1

    ◦ IMPERIAL MEASURE – 6/1

    ◦ RYDER’S ROCK – 9/1

    ◦ FIREFLY LANE – 12/1

    ◦ SEVENOFUS – 20/1

    ◦ BELIEVE JACK – 33/1

• Smart Play:

    ◦ Win Selection: LA QUARITE is recommended as the top pick due to his strong recent form and profile ideally suited to the conditions.

    ◦ Each-Way Saver: MERSEY STREET is an unexposed runner who could be ready to step forward with more chasing experience.

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In horse racing, understanding the pace angle is like trying to predict the flow of a river. If the river is slow, those who stay at the front can conserve energy and glide smoothly to the finish. If it’s fast, those who hold back might get swept along but risk getting tired before the end. The “smart plays” are like choosing the right boat and strategy for that specific river, aiming to navigate the currents (pace) to maximize the chance of success.