King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes: Detailed Briefing

Overview

The King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot, scheduled for Saturday, 26th July 2025, is set to be a highlight of the Flat racing season. This Group 1, Class 1 race for horses aged three years and up, covers a distance of 1 mile 3 furlongs and 211 yards. With prize money raised to £1.5 million, it is the “most valuable race ever run at Ascot.” This year’s renewal is anticipated to be a “showstopper,” featuring a high-quality, albeit numerically small, field with three of the world’s top nine middle-distance turf horses rated over 120, plus one of the highest-rated fillies.

Main Themes & Key Contenders

The central narrative of the race is a highly anticipated rematch between Jan Brueghel and Calandagan, who previously battled in the Coronation Cup at Epsom. While these two dominate the pre-race discussion, other strong contenders include the globe-trotting Rebel’s Romance and the promising filly Kalpana.

Jan Brueghel (IRE)

• Trainer: Aidan O’Brien (Ballydoyle)
• Key Characteristics: Described as a “workhorse,” “built to grind and find,” with exceptional “stamina and spirit.” He’s a “rhythmical, robotic” horse who gets a “software upgrade after every race.”
• Previous Performance (Coronation Cup): Won against Calandagan at Epsom, a victory attributed to the track conditions, ground, and the strategic “servicing gallop by team-mate Continuous.” He had to “dig very deep on the trickiest of tracks at Epsom and fought like a tiger.”
• Comparison: Compared to Ballydoyle’s previous King George winner Highland Reel, another “Galileo workhorse who was greater than the sum of his parts.”
• Current Standing: Considered Aidan O’Brien’s “big gun” for the race, with the “Coolmore chessboard reserved for Jan Brueghel for some time.” Betting odds place him around 15/8.

Calandagan (IRE)

• Trainer: Francis-Henri Graffard
• Key Characteristics: A “high-powered Ballydoyle brute” with impressive “top speed.” His skills are “designed for fast ground at Ascot.”
• Previous Performance (Coronation Cup): Finished second to Jan Brueghel at Epsom. This race was seen as a “trap… to suppress his speed by drawing him into an advanced arm wrestle.”
• Recent Form: “Bolting up in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud,” where he “scorched through the final 400m in just 22.05s,” showcasing his immense speed. He also ran the final 3f of the Juddmonte from last year “faster than did the winner, City of Troy.”
• Stamina/Spirit Concerns: His “uncomfortable sequence of seconds” in Group 1s, particularly in the Coronation Cup, has “naturally raise[d] some doubt about his stamina or spirit or both.” However, his trainer felt he might have been “a bit short of full fitness” at Epsom.
• Ascot Advantage: Ascot is considered the “perfect staging ground for the rematch,” as he “ran away with last season’s King Edward VII Stakes” there. The forecasted “drier and warmer” conditions, likely resulting in “good” ground, are also seen as an “Advantage Calandagan.”
• Current Standing: The “likely favourite” and “edging favouritism” in betting (7/4). Jamie Lynch’s verdict leans towards Calandagan, stating he “can go to speeds the others can’t reach” under “far more conducive conditions” at Ascot.

Rebel’s Romance (IRE)

• Trainer: Charlie Appleby (Godolphin)
• Key Characteristics: A “hard-as-nails, globe-trotting seven-year-old” who has earned over £10.8 million across “26 races across five seasons and six different countries.” Described as the “epitome of efficiency.” He is “objectively one of Godolphin’s most influential horses and subjectively Charlie Appleby’s best buddy.”
• Achievements: Rated 120 or higher for three years, with “seven Group 1 successes” in various international locations.
• Previous King George Performance: Finished “third last year,” though this was after “multiple trips abroad” and being “suckered into racing too close to the hot pace.” His preparation this year is “much better.”
• Statistical Hurdles: At seven years old, he would become the “race’s oldest winner if successful,” and statistically, horses beaten in the previous year’s race have a poor record.
• Current Standing: Considered a “great racehorse, yet he’s not a racehorse of great ability” to win an “elite race like the King George.” However, it is “ill-advised to rule him out of calculations,” especially given his recent “incredibly good heart when winning the Hardwicke Stakes over this course and distance.” Betting odds are 11/2.

Kalpana

• Trainer: Andrew Balding (Juddmonte)
• Key Characteristics: A “very smart filly” and “one of the most promising middle-distance fillies on the planet.” She is considered the “heiress apparent” to Bluestocking.
• Previous Performance: Won the “Fillies & Mares Stakes on Champions Day,” which placed her “5 lb ahead of where Bluestocking was at the same stage.” Her “defining moment came on soft ground,” but she has also won “twice – by wide margins – on good to firm.”
• Recent Form: Though beaten in her two starts in 2025, she “lost very little in defeat.” The move to 1½ miles “made a discernible difference to her last year, as it will again now.”
• Potential: “Kalpana has definitely got the game to win a race like this at some stage.” Any rain would be a “help to her,” but she looks set to run a “very big race” as long as the ground isn’t too firm.
• Current Standing: The “head of the market promises to be completed by the Andrew Balding-trained Kalpana.” Betting odds are 4/1.

Other Notable Entries

• Continuous: A St Leger winner now primarily serving as a “pacemaker” for Ballydoyle, successfully aiding Jan Brueghel at Epsom. His presence “raises hopes that he will be utilised as a pacemaker” to ensure a “truer test for all.”
• Lambourn: A “Dual Derby winner” who is “highly unlikely” to run, as his “square on the Coolmore chessboard [is] reserved for Jan Brueghel.”
• Whirl: Oaks runner-up who defeated Kalpana in the Pretty Polly. Unlikely to run as “the yard has Jan Brueghel ringfenced for it.”
• Green Impact: A Group 1 horse by proxy, but his classic attempts have been “unthreatening,” and his listed win form “hardly qualifies him for a King George.”

Key Race Dynamics & Analysis Points

• The Rematch: The core of the race revolves around the “renewed rivalry” between Jan Brueghel and Calandagan. Their Coronation Cup encounter, with only half a length separating them, sets the stage for a “fascinating rematch.”
• Track and Going: The shift from Epsom (stiff opening, super-fast closing) to Ascot (stiff final seven furlongs, sharp half-mile descent) is crucial. Ascot’s current “good” going and forecast “drier and warmer” weather from Thursday onwards are seen as an advantage for Calandagan, who prefers faster ground.
• Pace: The “strong pace” in the Coronation Cup favored Jan Brueghel’s stamina. The presence of Continuous as a pacemaker for Jan Brueghel could influence the race’s pace. A “steady pace” would likely benefit Calandagan, allowing him to utilize his superior speed. Paul Jones notes the “canny Ryan Moore ride on a prominent racer” for Jan Brueghel versus “Mickael Barzalona aboard a hold-up horse” for Calandagan at Epsom.
• Stamina vs. Speed: Jan Brueghel’s strength lies in his “stamina,” having won a St Leger. Calandagan, while having immense speed, has raised “doubt about his stamina or spirit or both” in prior Group 1 seconds. The “overall time” and sectional analysis will be critical in determining which characteristic prevails.
• Statistical Trends:Price: 35 of the last 39 winners were in the “first four in the betting,” with only seven 12/1 or bigger shots since 1988 placing in the frame. This race “isn’t really the race to go in search of that elusive big-priced winner.”
• Age: Older horses lead three-year-olds 42-32 in wins. Seven-year-olds like Rebel’s Romance face a historical hurdle.
• Fillies/Mares: Have a “terrific record” in top European 1m 4f races, winning “five of the last 12 runnings” of the King George.
• Draw: Nine of the last 11 winners were “drawn in the higher half.”
• Prize Money: The £1.5 million prize money makes it the “richest race ever run at Ascot,” aiming to attract top international runners and maintain its prestige in the global racing landscape.
• Pacemakers: The use of pacemakers, particularly Continuous for Aidan O’Brien’s contingent, is highlighted as beneficial for ensuring a “truer test for all” and avoiding “unsatisfactory pace leading to a messy race.”

Analyst Verdicts

• Jamie Lynch: Leans towards Calandagan, believing he can learn from his Epsom defeat and thrive under “far more conducive conditions” at Ascot, where he “can go to speeds the others can’t reach.”
• Kevin Blake: Notes the irony of past criticisms regarding resolution for both Jan Brueghel and Calandagan, dismissing them and stating “there is absolutely nothing wrong with either of their resolutions.” Anticipates a thrilling contest with “no excuses this time, let the best horse win.”
• Simon (Expert Analysis): Bets on Calandagan, but with “a nervous eye on that weather forecast and trusting that Calandagan’s jockey gets the fractions right.” Emphasizes the crucial differences in track, going, and pace from Epsom.

Emerging Star to Watch (Beyond the King George)

• Scoville: A “little-known,” “twice-raced, unbeaten, three-year-old” from William Haggas’s yard. He won his last race at Newmarket by “an astonishing 14 lengths and in a decidedly smart time.” Described as a “little tank of a horse” who “can go a ferocious pace at a mile and keep it up for longer than even a smart horse should.” While not expected to run in the King George, he is tipped to be a “Group performer, and a winning one at that.”