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17:50 Newbury – Hunscote Stud Supports Heros Charity Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap

(Class 5, 1m2f, 4yo+, Turf)

Pace Angles: This race is forecast to have a strong pace, which typically favours hold-up horses at this track and trip. Horses like SHOW BIZ KID (IRE) and GORDON GREY (IRE) are expected to be favoured if ridden in their usual style, despite the strong pace.

Draw Bias: There is no strong draw bias evident for this race.

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Runner Comments:

• GORDON GREY (IRE)
  • Form: Comes in exceptional form, having won his last race at Epsom by 11 lengths, which was a career-best performance. He also secured a win over hurdles recently.
  • Pace: Usually leads. His relentless galloping, fitness, and thriving condition mean the strong pace won’t hinder him, even though hold-up horses are generally favoured here.
  • Fitness: (7 days off). Fit and thriving.
  • Class: A fairly useful handicapper (OR 80) who looks well-in under a penalty and is unexposed as a Flat performer.
  • Flags: Has worn cheekpieces and usually wears a tongue tie.
  • Overall: Thriving, proven stayer, versatile on ground, and well-in under the penalty.
• FAST STEPS (IRE)
  • Form: Showed solid form with a third-place finish at Windsor in May, and was fourth at Newbury most recently.
  • Pace: His hold-up style is ideally suited to the expected strong pace of the race.
  • Fitness: (14 days off).
  • Class: A fairly useful handicapper.
  • Flags: The return of cheekpieces is a notable factor.
  • Overall: A C&D (course and distance) winner whose race shape is ideal, with cheekpieces being a positive.
• AZAHARA PALACE
  • Form: Won at Leicester in 2024 and put in a respectable eighth-place finish last time at Salisbury, despite being forced wide. She was running to mid-90s late last year.
  • Pace: Not explicitly stated, but if she gets a smoother run, she could be a viable threat with tactical upside in this strong-pace scenario.
  • Fitness: (44 days off).
  • Class: A fairly useful handicapper who has a win over this trip and is unexposed over the distance.
  • Overall: Needs better track position but her form is solid and she is unexposed at this trip.
• VAYNOR (IRE)
  • Form: Traded at 50% or less of his starting Betfair SP when beaten last time. Finished fourth at Epsom most recently in a stronger race, hinting at a return to form.
  • Pace: His usual hold-up tactics benefit from the strong pace forecast. He appeals as a place player in this setup.
  • Fitness: (22 days off).
  • Class: A fairly useful handicapper. He has run to higher marks before and is well-handicapped.
  • Overall: Well-handicapped and the race shape suits him; one to watch in the market.
• SHOW BIZ KID (IRE)
  • Form: Won at Yarmouth in April, but has been well below form in his last two starts. Earlier Timefigs suggest he is capable on his day.
  • Pace: His style is suited to this race, and he is typically favoured if ridden as he usually is.
  • Fitness: (26 days off).
  • Class: A fairly useful handicapper.
  • Flags: Wears headgear nowadays.
  • Overall: A risky profile due to inconsistency, but the pace and course suit his style.
• STAR PUPIL
  • Form: Has solid form on all-weather surfaces, with wins at Chelmsford and Wolverhampton, but his turf runs, especially last time, show regression.
  • Pace: Usually leads. He is unlikely to get an uncontested lead in this field.
  • Fitness: (35 days off).
  • Class: A fairly useful handicapper.
  • Flags: Wears headgear.
  • Overall: May not stay the strong 10f pace on turf.
• ALAZWAR (IRE)
  • Form: Won a similar amateur race at Newbury in June but has been well below form in his last two starts.
  • Pace: His one-paced profile puts him at risk if he cannot dominate early.
  • Fitness: (19 days off).
  • Class: A fair handicapper, effective at 7f to 1¼m.
  • Flags: Has worn headgear, often recently.
  • Overall: One-paced and his recent evidence suggests he is held by others.
• HAWA JUMEIRAH
  • Form: Has two wins this season, at Wolverhampton and Leicester, and a good second at Pontefract. His run of form was halted last time due to carrying his head awkwardly.
  • Pace: Not sure to relish this tempo.
  • Fitness: (19 days off).
  • Class: A fair handicapper.
  • Flags: Tried in a hood. Has an awkward head carriage.
  • Overall: Regression is possible, and he lacks profile depth at this level.
• SAGANO (IRE)
  • Form: His best effort in 2023 was a second-place finish at Sandown, but he missed the entire following season.
  • Pace: Not specified.
  • Fitness: (670 days off). Returning from a very long layoff, his fitness and intent are major unknowns.
  • Class: A fair handicapper. His old form (ratings of 95+) would make him competitive, but his long absence is a significant factor.
  • Flags: Has worn headgear and a tongue tie.
  • Overall: A huge layoff raises serious fitness doubts.

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Private Tissue Odds:

• GORDON GREY – 3/1
• FAST STEPS – 11/2
• AZAHARA PALACE – 6/1
• VAYNOR – 7/1
• SHOW BIZ KID – 10/1
• STAR PUPIL – 12/1
• ALAZWAR – 14/1
• HAWA JUMEIRAH – 14/1
• SAGANO – 25/1

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ChatGPT Smart Plays:

• Shortlist: GORDON GREY.
• Value Pick(s) with Reasoning:
  • Win: GORDON GREY (well-in and thriving).
  • Each-way: VAYNOR (well-handicapped closer with stamina in a pace-heavy race).
  • Reasoning: This strongly-run amateur handicap is expected to favour well-positioned hold-up or stalker types. GORDON GREY appears to be a class above based on his recent form and is well treated under his penalty, making him the one to beat. For value, VAYNOR appeals as a place player due to his setup and the likely strong pace scenario, as does Azahara Palace.

—

18:22 Newbury – Lee Sanitation Services British EBF Maiden Fillies’ Stakes

(Class 4, 7f, 2yo, Turf)

Pace Angles: The forecast weak pace could disadvantage horses that need a strong gallop to settle or close. The draw favours low stalls, and several prominent racers, including CRYSTAL PIER and BOX CLEVER, are drawn inside, which may confer a tactical advantage in a steadily run contest.

Draw Bias: Low draws are favoured for this race. CRYSTAL PIER (1), SPECULATIVE (2), and PEPPER FIZZ (3) could benefit if they break alertly. Wide-drawn runners such as SYDNEY ROCK and CALENDAR GIRL might face an uphill task without sufficient pace to target.

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Runner Comments:

• BOX CLEVER
  • Form: Her debut at Newbury saw her finish sixth, but she was denied a clear run and shaped notably well, hitting an in-running low of under half her starting Betfair SP.
  • Pace: With a handy draw, she could get the run of the race on the pace.
  • Fitness: (30 days off).
  • Class: She is open to improvement, as Zoustar fillies tend to improve significantly after their first run.
  • Overall: Showed a good first run, was unlucky, and is expected to improve, with her low draw being a positive.
• CALENDAR GIRL
  • Form: Has no prior race form.
  • Pace: Drawn wide (12), which is not ideal in a slow gallop, suggesting she may face an uphill task without a strong pace.
  • Fitness: Unraced.
  • Class: A well-related filly. Her trainer, Owen Burrows, has a profitable record with debutants and single entries at meetings.
  • Overall: Nicely bred, but her wide draw means she may need more luck than sheer ability today.
• CRAZEE ICON
  • Form: Has no prior race form.
  • Pace: Not specified.
  • Fitness: Unraced.
  • Class: A well-bred filly. Her yard typically sees improvement after a horse’s first run.
  • Overall: Currently a “watching brief” as her initial runs suggest she needs more experience.
• CRYSTAL PIER (IRE)
  • Form: Showed promise on debut, finishing third over course and distance in a solid time figure (TFR 77, Adj 89).
  • Pace: Her trainer believes the race pace shouldn’t bother her. She is well-drawn, and the race shape suits her if she can sit handy.
  • Fitness: (30 days off).
  • Class: Bred to stay 1m+ and is sure to improve. She is a half-sister to middle-distance winners, and her trainer, Ralph Beckett, is known for second-time-out improvement.
  • Overall: Strong C&D form, well-bred, ideally drawn, and has proven stamina in her pedigree.
• DARKWING
  • Form: Has no prior race form.
  • Pace: The race shape is not expected to be a hindrance for this debutant.
  • Fitness: Unraced.
  • Class: Boasts a fine pedigree as the first foal of a Duke of Cambridge Stakes winner. She represents the Gosdens, a yard that excels with well-bred debutantes, and her pedigree “screams quality”.
  • Flags: From a “hot trainer” (John & Thady Gosden). Market support for her will be informative.
  • Overall: Top pedigree and from a strong yard; despite being a debutant, the race shape is not a hindrance.
• FAN ME
  • Form: Was well held in her maiden at Newmarket. Her initial run suggests she needs more experience, and her debut was underwhelming.
  • Pace: Not specified.
  • Fitness: (12 days off).
  • Class: A well-bred filly.
  • Flags: From a “hot trainer” (William Haggas), who has a 21% strike rate at Newbury since 2021.
  • Overall: Currently a “watching brief”.
• MOHAAB
  • Form: Was very green when finishing sixth in her maiden at Lingfield and shaped modestly on debut.
  • Pace: Not specified.
  • Fitness: (33 days off).
  • Class: Needs considerable improvement. Her yard is not prolific with early juveniles.
  • Overall: Green on debut; her yard is not prolific with early juveniles.
• PEPPER FIZZ
  • Form: Has shown modest form, with a better effort finishing fourth in a maiden at Windsor. She also shaped modestly on debut.
  • Pace: Not specified.
  • Fitness: (14 days off).
  • Class: Needs considerable improvement. May need further distance or more time to develop.
  • Overall: Modest form shown; may need further or more time.
• QUEEN TAMARA (IRE)
  • Form: Shaped as if she needed experience on her debut at Newmarket. She also shaped modestly overall.
  • Pace: Not specified.
  • Fitness: (1 day off).
  • Class: Needs considerable improvement and was 10 lengths off on debut.
  • Overall: Not devoid of potential but was well off the pace on debut.
• SPECULATIVE (IRE)
  • Form: Had a considerate introduction on her debut at Newbury. She shaped modestly on debut.
  • Pace: Not specified.
  • Fitness: (30 days off).
  • Class: Needs considerable improvement.
  • Overall: Ran to par first out; significant improvement is required.
• SYDNEY ROCK
  • Form: Has no prior race form.
  • Pace: Drawn wide (11), which is not ideal on a slow gallop.
  • Fitness: Unraced.
  • Class: By Australia out of a mare that stayed well, indicating she has the scope and breeding to progress rapidly if she handles the conditions.
  • Overall: Strong profile, but her wide draw on a slow gallop is a concern.
• VENETIAN ROMANCE (IRE)
  • Status: Non Runner.

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Private Tissue Odds:

• CRYSTAL PIER – 9/4
• DARKWING – 3/1
• BOX CLEVER – 6/1
• SYDNEY ROCK – 7/1
• CALENDAR GIRL – 9/1
• CRAZEE ICON – 12/1
• FAN ME – 20/1
• SPECULATIVE – 33/1
• MOHAAB – 40/1
• PEPPER FIZZ – 50/1
• QUEEN TAMARA – 66/1

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ChatGPT Smart Plays:

• Shortlist: CRYSTAL PIER, DARKWING, BOX CLEVER.
• Value Pick(s) with Reasoning:
  • Win: CRYSTAL PIER (track form, pace suited, inside draw).
  • Each-way: BOX CLEVER (big run on debut, low draw, sharp improvement likely).
  • Reasoning: The race is set up for those drawn low and handy in a slowly run maiden. CRYSTAL PIER has established track form, a strong Timeform Rating on debut, and is highly likely to progress. DARKWING commands respect due to her pedigree and connections, but she faces a tactical challenge on her first outing. BOX CLEVER could offer value given her promising debut and favourable draw. BOX CLEVER and SYDNEY ROCK offer fair each-way angles if prices hold, particularly if they can sit handy.

—

19:02 Newbury – Get Best Odds Guaranteed at BetVictor Nursery Handicap

(Class 4, 7f, 2yo, Turf)

Pace Angles: The forecast weak pace typically benefits prominent racers at Newbury. Horses that can travel handy or dictate the pace without pressure should gain a tactical edge. WHO IS ALICE is well placed to capitalise on this, while closers like PARODA DIVA may struggle to get involved.

Draw Bias: There is no pronounced draw bias indicated for this race; instead, the position during the race will be more influential than the starting stall.

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Runner Comments:

• INDIGO DAWN (IRE)
  • Form: Won a maiden at Goodwood but was then outclassed at Royal Ascot.
  • Pace: Her mid-pack running style means she could get caught in a pace lull in this weak-pace scenario.
  • Fitness: (34 days off).
  • Class: Has shown fairly useful form. Her peak form appears to have already been achieved.
  • Overall: Considered regressive and may struggle tactically in this race.
• STRENGTH OF SPIRIT (IRE)
  • Form: Won at Chester and secured a solid second at Beverley most recently.
  • Pace: Has a prominent run style. A slight concern is whether he can control the tempo from the inside if challenged early.
  • Fitness: (19 days off).
  • Class: Has fair form and consistently operates at a good Timeform Rating level (75-82). He will stay 1m.
  • Overall: Reliable, possesses early pace presence, but might lack a quick change of gear.
• SNAKE CHARMER
  • Form: Made all to win a Brighton maiden with authority, posting a fair Timeform Rating of 76. He has been learning fast, having previously been held back by greenness.
  • Pace: His tactical speed makes him well-suited to today’s race setup.
  • Fitness: (16 days off).
  • Class: Has fair form. Bred for speed, but the 7f trip should be fine now.
  • Overall: Posts a good last-time-out figure and is on the up, though his draw is a slight concern.
• PARODA DIVA (IRE)
  • Form: Had a decent nursery debut but regressed badly in her last race at Chester, appearing to be a hard ride.
  • Pace: Her slow starts and lack of tactical pace are negatives in this scenario, especially as closers may struggle to get involved.
  • Fitness: (13 days off).
  • Class: Capable on her best form.
  • Flags: Was in first-time cheekpieces last time.
  • Overall: Considered temperamental, and her hold-up tactics are ill-suited for today’s race.
• JOHN BARLEYCORN (IRE)
  • Form: His best effort was a fourth at Salisbury, but he was well beaten last time at Newbury over 6f.
  • Pace: A tactical race could play against him today.
  • Fitness: (14 days off).
  • Class: Has fair form. His pedigree and physical scope suggest that 7f will suit him better, and he is interesting stepping up to this trip.
  • Overall: Untapped potential over 7f, but might need a stronger gallop to show his best.
• WHO IS ALICE
  • Form: Showed dramatic improvement when stepped up to 7f last time, making all for a commanding success at Chepstow (TFR 70+, Adj 84+). She impressed with her 7f success and has more to come off a lenient mark.
  • Pace: Expected to be well-assisted by the pace. She is well-placed to capitalise and should get the run of the race.
  • Fitness: (13 days off).
  • Class: Looks well treated on her handicap debut and can continue her progression.
  • Flags: Her trainer, Jack Channon, has a good record with single runners at flat meetings.
  • Overall: The track bias suits her, she is improving, and she is tactically advantaged.
• MEHMAS AIR FORCE (IRE)
  • Form: Displayed ability in maidens, running close at Yarmouth last time.
  • Pace: Should be staying on and might outstay rivals if the early gallop is too tepid.
  • Fitness: (27 days off).
  • Class: Her adjusted rating (81) suggests potential upside on her nursery debut. She is trained by a yard with a good 2yo record.
  • Overall: A staying type and a possible improver who requires a testing pace.

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Private Tissue Odds:

• WHO IS ALICE – 5/2
• SNAKE CHARMER – 7/2
• STRENGTH OF SPIRIT – 5/1
• MEHMAS AIR FORCE – 6/1
• JOHN BARLEYCORN – 7/1
• INDIGO DAWN – 10/1
• PARODA DIVA – 14/1

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ChatGPT Smart Plays:

• Shortlist: WHO IS ALICE, SNAKE CHARMER.
• Value Pick(s) with Reasoning:
  • Win: WHO IS ALICE (tactical control, improving).
  • Saver: SNAKE CHARMER (on the up, good attitude).
  • Reasoning: This is likely to be a tactical race where the advantage goes to horses that can hold or make the running. WHO IS ALICE impressed with her 7f success and looks to have more to come. SNAKE CHARMER is the next best option, with a strong profile from his Brighton win and pace-suiting attributes. There are no each-way angles in this 7-runner field, so straight win or forecast/place-only betting is advised.

—

19:33 Newbury – Price Boosts Now Live at BetVictor Handicap

(Class 5, 2m, 3yo+, Turf)

Pace Angles: The forecast weak pace will favour prominent racers or those with tactical gears. KITTY FOYLE, who can sit close to the pace or dictate, is strongly favoured by this tempo scenario. CAPTAIN BRETT, with his usual slow-starting style, may find his chances compromised in a falsely run race.

Draw Bias: A specific draw bias is not applicable over this trip at Newbury; position in running and stamina are more important factors.

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Runner Comments:

• KITTY FOYLE (IRE)
  • Form: Won at Wolverhampton and Goodwood in 2024. She ran with credit over C&D last month, despite the tactical affair not playing to her strengths. This effort rated 78 on Timeform.
  • Pace: She usually races prominently or leads. She is tactically versatile and should get a more favourable setup this time. She is ideally drawn for this race.
  • Fitness: (30 days off). Off 10 weeks from hurdling.
  • Class: A fairly useful handicapper. A course winner whose ground and trip preferences suit well. Her stable is quietly effective with stayers.
  • Flags: Has worn cheekpieces.
  • Overall: Well suited by the trip, ground, and likely race shape.
• CAPONE (GER)
  • Form: Below form when finishing sixth at Kempton last time. He did post an okay effort two runs ago, but has otherwise been pulled up or soundly beaten.
  • Pace: Not explicitly stated, but he is not easy to fancy, especially in a tactical race.
  • Fitness: (15 days off).
  • Class: A fair handicapper and a fairly useful hurdler. He is largely out of form.
  • Flags: Has been tried in blinkers.
  • Overall: A veteran with patchy form, and his stamina may be suspect in this setup.
• QUEENSLAND BOY (IRE)
  • Form: Won twice in May at Wolverhampton and Lingfield, but has run poorly in his last two outings, including being heavily eased.
  • Pace: Usually races prominently. He lacks tactical consistency.
  • Fitness: (11 days off).
  • Class: A fair handicapper who will stay 16.5f.
  • Flags: Has worn cheekpieces.
  • Overall: Erratic and his recent efforts have been poor.
• DEEP WATER BAY
  • Form: A fair performer who won handicaps at Wolverhampton and Chelmsford in June and July. He then ran a creditable sixth in a stronger event at Haydock after a quick turnaround.
  • Pace: Is likely to be prominent early and usually races prominently. He is likely to race handy, which is a positive here. Drawn to go forward.
  • Fitness: (19 days off).
  • Class: The most upwardly mobile 3yo in the field. A step up to 2m is positive given his pedigree (New Bay out of a Galileo mare), and he could improve further. Still unexposed and remains capable of better.
  • Flags: From a “hot trainer” (Sir Mark Prescott Bt), who has high strike rates with horses running over 10f+ and in mid-season.
  • Overall: An improving profile, stays well, and is drawn to go forward.
• CHESHIRE BELLE (IRE)
  • Form: Has fair form, with a sixth-place finish in a maiden at Lingfield and a fifth at Windsor.
  • Pace: Not specified.
  • Fitness: (38 days off).
  • Class: An unexposed filly making her handicap debut with a significant step up in trip. By Shaman and a half-sister to useful middle-distance horses. Her trainer, Hugo Palmer, has a strong profit record with horses being stepped up in trip, and the market has already noted her potential. Her lack of proven stamina is the main question.
  • Overall: Unexposed with unknown stamina limits, but possesses significant upside.
• CAPTAIN BRETT (IRE)
  • Form: Has been progressing this summer and was first past the post at Bath before being demoted for causing interference.
  • Pace: Tends to be ridden cold and is usually held up (often slowly away). The weak pace may be a hindrance as he requires a stiffer test.
  • Fitness: (8 days off).
  • Class: A fair handicapper. He shapes as if 2m will suit him.
  • Flags: Usually wears a hood and has raced lazily. From a “hot trainer” (David Simcock).
  • Overall: Has the ability, but his lazy nature and the unsuitability of the race shape may hurt his chances.

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Private Tissue Odds:

• KITTY FOYLE – 9/4
• DEEP WATER BAY – 11/4
• CHESHIRE BELLE – 4/1
• CAPTAIN BRETT – 5/1
• QUEENSLAND BOY – 12/1
• CAPONE – 25/1

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ChatGPT Smart Plays:

• Shortlist: KITTY FOYLE, DEEP WATER BAY.
• Value Pick(s) with Reasoning:
  • Win: KITTY FOYLE (tactical fit, C&D form).
  • Saver: DEEP WATER BAY (well-handicapped improver going up in trip).
  • Reasoning: This tactical staying handicap should reward horses positioned handy to the pace. KITTY FOYLE is ideally drawn and showed good form here last time, appearing primed to go one better with more even fractions. DEEP WATER BAY is the improving and major danger, especially as he steps up to two miles. CHESHIRE BELLE remains a wildcard with her stamina limits to learn but holds significant upside. No each-way angles are applicable in this 6-runner field.

—

20:03 Newbury – Country and Town House Handicap

(Class 5, 1m2f, 3yo+, Turf)

Pace Angles: The pace is forecast to be even but slightly lacking in strong early aggression. DRUMSTICK and SHOWYOUTHEROPES are most likely to take up handy positions, while LIGHTNING TOUCH may be inconvenienced as a deep closer. Tactical awareness will be crucial in the latter stages of the race.

Draw Bias: There is no meaningful draw bias at this trip at Newbury; positioning in the race will matter more than the stall number.

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Runner Comments:

• FINN RUSSELL (IRE)
  • Form: Won an event at Windsor in May. However, he has an unpredictable profile and showed poor form over hurdles, having bled last time.
  • Pace: He can front-run.
  • Fitness: (37 days off, last ran over hurdles).
  • Class: A fair handicapper. He is hard to trust.
  • Flags: Has worn a hood and can be a difficult (headstrong) ride.
  • Overall: Needs to replicate his Windsor win and does not present a reliable profile.
• LIGHTNING TOUCH
  • Form: Has shown plenty of promise in her limited starts, making the frame in her first two outings. She shaped well on her belated return at Salisbury, fading late in a falsely run novice race.
  • Pace: The forecast pace is likely to disadvantage her as a deep closer. The pace setup could hinder her.
  • Fitness: (70 days off).
  • Class: A well-bred daughter of Frankel who steps into handicaps off a fair mark (71). She is bred to stay this trip well and retains considerable upside. Her yard excels with such profiles.
  • Flags: From a “hot trainer” (Roger Varian), who has strong strike rates with handicap debutants and horses running over 10f+.
  • Overall: Scopey, unexposed, and her pedigree is solid for 10f, but there is a hold-up risk due to the pace setup.
• SHADY BAY (IRE)
  • Form: Achieved a career-best effort when winning an 8-runner event at Nottingham recently by 5 lengths, which was visually impressive. She has also run with credit in higher-class events previously.
  • Pace: Travels well and should be suited by a controlled pace in this race. She is pace adaptable.
  • Fitness: (19 days off).
  • Class: A fair handicapper. Looks capable of defying a rise in weights with confidence from her yard.
  • Flags: Has been tried in a hood and has worn a tongue tie in her last 5 starts.
  • Overall: In great form, pace adaptable, and proven at the trip.
• MIGHTY QUIET
  • Form: Won at Bath in her final start of 2024. She stepped up on her reappearance but finished a distant eighth at Beverley most recently, having been beaten over 18 lengths in both runs this year.
  • Pace: Not specified.
  • Fitness: (57 days off).
  • Class: A fair handicapper. She is best watched until showing a clear return to form.
  • Flags: Has been tried in a hood and has worn a tongue tie in her last 3 starts.
  • Overall: Out of sorts, and while the ground and trip are suitable, confidence in her current form is low.
• DRUMSTICK
  • Form: Has delivered solid efforts, including a close second at Kempton last time.
  • Pace: Expected to be up with the pace and looks most likely to take a handy position. He goes forward, giving him a potential tactical edge. The weak pace forecast should help him.
  • Fitness: (15 days off).
  • Class: A fair maiden handicapper. He may be vulnerable to a classier turn of foot late, but has enough to hold a place.
  • Flags: Has worn a hood in his last 2 starts. He has been turned over before after trading much lower than his Betfair SP.
  • Overall: A solid type with his tactical position working in his favour.
• PIVOTAL DAYS
  • Form: Won a nursery at Haydock in 2024 but has been well held at Kempton most recently. His form has dipped sharply since his 2yo win.
  • Pace: Not specified.
  • Fitness: (29 days off).
  • Class: A fair handicapper. He has run as if needing more cut in the ground and less competition.
  • Overall: Has been well held recently and is fading on his past potential.
• PREMIER (FR)
  • Form: Won a nursery at Bath in 2024. He has run well again, finishing third at Sandown last time. A genuine 3yo with solid middle-distance form, he has placed in both recent runs.
  • Pace: He is one-paced but reliable. He has been travelling strongly in recent 10f races.
  • Fitness: (41 days off).
  • Class: A fair handicapper. Looks suited to this test.
  • Flags: Has worn a hood. Sometimes starts slowly, but has been away on terms and ridden positively in his last two starts.
  • Overall: Consistent and durable, and stays well.
• SHOWYOUTHEROPES (IRE)
  • Form: In his last race at Yarmouth, a first-time visor brought improvement, as he stayed on for third. He has responded well to the step up in trip and the application of the visor.
  • Pace: Looks most likely to take a handy position.
  • Fitness: (21 days off).
  • Class: A fair maiden. His pedigree hints at stamina.
  • Flags: In first-time visor last time.
  • Overall: Has scope to improve with the visor and is now better drawn.

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Private Tissue Odds:

• LIGHTNING TOUCH – 3/1
• SHADY BAY – 4/1
• DRUMSTICK – 6/1
• PREMIER – 6/1
• SHOWYOUTHEROPES – 8/1
• FINN RUSSELL – 10/1
• MIGHTY QUIET – 14/1
• PIVOTAL DAYS – 20/1

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ChatGPT Smart Plays:

• Shortlist: SHADY BAY.
• Value Pick(s) with Reasoning:
  • Win: SHADY BAY (proven, thriving, tactically versatile).
  • Each-way: PREMIER (genuine, placed in stronger races, good profile for setup).
  • Reasoning: This is a modestly contested 10f handicap with a few upwardly mobile types. LIGHTNING TOUCH has the pedigree and profile of a smart improver now handicapping for a top stable, but the race shape may not play to her hold-up strengths. SHADY BAY, on the other hand, is thriving, travels well, and brings dominant recent form. PREMIER is a consistent 3yo who has been travelling strongly in recent 10f races and is unlikely to be far away in this setup.

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20:33 Newbury – Rayner Bosch Car Service Handicap

(Class 5, 1m4f, 4yo+, Turf)

Pace Angles: A strong gallop looks highly likely with RAINTOWN, RAGING AL, MONKMOOR PIP, and potentially DIDAAR expected to force the issue. This scenario strongly favours hold-up types, especially those drawn low. The race shape sets up ideally for closers with proven stamina.

Draw Bias: There is a slight bias against high draws at this trip on quick Newbury ground. This complicates matters for wide-stall runners aiming to lead or race handily.

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Runner Comments:

• RAGING AL (IRE)
  • Form: His best effort (fair form) was a fifth at Sandown in 2024. He was not seen to best effect and was well held in a handicap at Chester most recently, and has not built on his career best from last year.
  • Pace: Likely to force the issue. Tactically well-drawn.
  • Fitness: (40 days off).
  • Class: Should stay at least 1½m. His profile suggests he is regressing and he didn’t finish his race at Chester. He is still finding his level.
  • Overall: Still finding his level; raw ability is there, but his profile is weak.
• DIDAAR (IRE)
  • Form: Has hinted at ability in 2025 and shaped better than the result at Salisbury, meeting trouble.
  • Pace: Potentially likely to force the issue. He gets a better setup now and could go well at a price if he settles and produces a clean run. Drawn to stalk.
  • Fitness: (39 days off).
  • Class: A fairly useful maiden. Lightly raced.
  • Flags: Has been tried in headgear. He has been gelded since, and a tongue tie has been added. His trainer, Ismail Mohammed, has a profitable record when having one runner.
  • Overall: Possesses slightly hidden merit with past excuses, and the race shape suits him if he settles.
• RAINTOWN (IRE)
  • Form: Won at Lingfield in February but has been well below form in his last 4 starts.
  • Pace: Usually a front runner/races prominently. Likely to force the issue and help set a strong pace.
  • Fitness: (31 days off).
  • Class: A fair handicapper.
  • Flags: Has worn cheekpieces in his last 2 starts.
  • Overall: Exposed and unreliable; while he should contribute to the strong pace, others are more appealing.
• NAASMA (IRE)
  • Form: Won an event at Windsor last time by 3 lengths, staying on strongly. She arrives in good form and bounced back at Windsor with an authoritative staying performance.
  • Pace: Expected to be favoured in this strong-pace scenario. She will relish a proper gallop due to her solid closing ability.
  • Fitness: (26 days off).
  • Class: A fair handicapper, racing off a career-high mark. She should handle this step up in trip. Her consistency and suitability for the track/trip make her a major player.
  • Flags: Has been tried in a visor. Her trainer, Pat Phelan, has a profitable record when having one runner.
  • Overall: A solid closer, well-drawn, in strong form, and ready-made for a pace meltdown.
• MELERI
  • Form: Won at Lingfield in June. She finished a creditable third at Newmarket last time, though she proved headstrong.
  • Pace: She can pull hard and needs to settle better than she did last time. If she settles off this pace, she will be finishing strongly. She is not expected to be favoured in a strong pace.
  • Fitness: (27 days off). Often starts slowly.
  • Class: A fair handicapper who stays 1½m. She possesses stamina and a touch of class. She previously beat ARTAVIAN convincingly.
  • Flags: Has been tried in a hood.
  • Overall: Stays very well, but her keen-going nature makes her a risky prospect; however, she adds a class angle.
• SEE THE GREEN
  • Form: Finished fifth in a handicap at Southwell in February and eighth at the same course in March.
  • Pace: Not specified. He is drawn to track well.
  • Fitness: (94 days off, last ran over hurdles).
  • Class: A fair performer who should stay beyond 1½m. His best form has been on soft/heavy ground. He showed similar winning form over hurdles and placed on his handicap debut last time.
  • Flags: Has worn cheekpieces in his last 2 starts. He left Owen Burrows after his final 2024 start.
  • Overall: Fresh and drawn to track well; unreliable, but a strong pace could bring out his best.
• MONKMOOR PIP
  • Form: Has been thriving since joining his new yard, winning a selling event at Lingfield last time with authority, travelling fluently and leading 2f out. This was at least as good as ever, clocking a solid figure.
  • Pace: Potentially likely to force the issue. He is tactically versatile. His strong-finishing style is ideal for today’s setup.
  • Fitness: (16 days off).
  • Class: A fair handicapper. Remains unexposed over middle distances. He is well-treated under a penalty.
  • Flags: Left Hugo Palmer after his final 2024 start. Has been tried in blinkers.
  • Overall: Ideal trip, strong finisher, versatile tactically, and unexposed in handicaps.
• ARTAVIAN
  • Form: Won at Windsor in 2024 and was third at Wolverhampton in April. He finished a respectable fifth at Lingfield most recently. He traded at 50% or less of his starting Betfair SP when beaten last time, suggesting either poor finishing or bad timing.
  • Pace: Usually races prominently.
  • Fitness: (51 days off).
  • Class: A fair handicapper who stays 1½m. He is capable at this level.
  • Flags: Wore a first-time visor.
  • Overall: Prone to underdelivering late; he will need luck and bravery.
• SWEET NIGHTINGALE
  • Form: A winning hurdler who was absent for over 2½ years following her final 2022/23 start. She has shown modest form on the Flat, finishing fourth in a handicap at Chepstow last time.
  • Pace: Not specified.
  • Fitness: (13 days off).
  • Class: Lacks a quick change of gear and doesn’t stay well enough for a collapse scenario.
  • Overall: Modest form, lacks gear change, and doesn’t stay well enough for a collapse scenario.

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Private Tissue Odds:

• MONKMOOR PIP – 5/2
• NAASMA – 4/1
• MELERI – 13/2
• DIDAAR – 7/1
• ARTAVIAN – 10/1
• SEE THE GREEN – 10/1
• RAINTOWN – 14/1
• RAGING AL – 20/1
• SWEET NIGHTINGALE – 33/1

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ChatGPT Smart Plays:

• Shortlist: MONKMOOR PIP, NAASMA.
• Value Pick(s) with Reasoning:
  • Win: MONKMOOR PIP (form peak, race shape friendly).
  • Each-way: DIDAAR (lightly raced, shape suits, profitable stable in these setups).
  • Reasoning: This is a classic strong-pace, middle-distance handicap featuring two horses clearly on upward curves. MONKMOOR PIP brings the best form and looks tactically sharp, making him the top pick. NAASMA will be finishing strongly, with her ideal trip and pedigree setup making her a strong contender. MELERI is the wildcard in the pack if she manages to settle effectively. DIDAAR is a lightly raced horse with a profile that suits the strong pace, and he comes from a profitable stable in these setups, offering good each-way value.