Leopardstown 17:25 – Frank Conroy Irish EBF Maiden (2yo, 1m, Soft Ground)

Pace & Draw Angles: This race is predicted to have a very weak pace, which places a higher emphasis on tactical positioning and the ability to quicken from a standing start. There is no discernible draw bias.

Runner Comments & Private Tissue Odds:

• (1) MONTREAL (IRE): A promising main danger. This Sea The Stars colt from a high-class pedigree makes his debut under Ryan Moore for Ballydoyle. He holds a Group 2 entry, and his connections (Aidan O’Brien) have a strong record in this race, with 3 winners in the past 10 runnings and a 21% strike rate at Leopardstown since 2021. Notably, 107 of Sea The Stars’ progeny have won on debut. Drawn 1, he could benefit from the slow early pace if sharp from the gates.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 5/2

• (2) SOUTH ISLAND (IRE): A progressive place player. He caught the eye late on his debut at the Curragh, finishing fifth after being held up. His FS% of 107.8 suggests an efficient closing effort. His pedigree points towards stamina, making the step up to 1m a suitable move. He has a fair draw in stall 2 and could pick up late. He also presents each-way appeal, especially if his odds drift to 8/1+.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 13/2

• (3) GENCHEV: The proven and progressive strongest contender. With a Timeform Rating of 92p, he shaped with significant promise on debut, finishing third in a listed race at Naas and splitting two last-time-out winners. His sectionals (FS% 102.9) and Timefigs (92) indicate he handled a strong tempo well and finished with good energy. The drop in class makes him the benchmark, and he is sure to progress.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 2/1

• (4) HANAK (IRE): An unproven newcomer who is unraced and faces smart opposition, needing to show ability on debut. He is a half-brother to several winners, including smart miler Hunaina and 1m 2f winner Hanalia.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 12/1

• (5) ACCELEREIGHT (FR): Another unproven newcomer. His pedigree is the most exposed, making him difficult to recommend. He is a half-brother to winners over 1m and 1m 2f in France.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 20/1

• (6) HARDY WARRIOR (IRE): A progressive interesting outsider. His debut run at Killarney was encouraging despite his big price, showing late progress and shaping like a colt who will improve markedly. He comes from a very classy family, related to Youmzain and Creachadoir, and his yard is in form. He could outstay rivals if the pace is slow early and has each-way appeal.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 8/1

• (7) THAT’S NO JOKE (IRE): An unproven newcomer. His breeding suggests he will need further distance and more experience, and he appears to be the most backward on breeding in this field.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 16/1

• (8) PIERRE BONNARD (IRE): A promising interesting outsider and stablemate to Montreal. He is bred for 1m 2f+ and may need further in time. Being by Camelot, he is related to several middle-distance winners, including a Nassau Stakes winner. Drawn in stall 8, he might face a wide trip, but he is expected to improve with racing, and his connections often target this track with debutants. He is also shortlisted by the Timeform Analyst.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 7/1

ChatGPT Smart Plays:

• Win Bet: GENCHEV. Reasoning: He boasts proven listed form from his debut, handles the ground and trip, and sets the standard for this race.

• Each-Way Saver: SOUTH ISLAND. Reasoning: His closing debut was encouraging, the step up in trip is ideal, and he has a good draw.

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Leopardstown 17:57 – Irish EBF Median Sires Series Fillies Maiden (2yo Fillies, 7f 57y, Soft Ground)

Pace & Draw Angles: This race is forecast to have a very weak pace and lacks a natural front-runner. This suggests it could become tactical, favoring those who can race handily or quicken effectively from a modest gallop. There is no strong draw bias with soft ground.

Runner Comments & Private Tissue Odds:

• (1) TEEWINOT (IRE): The proven and progressive strongest contender. With a Timeform Rating of 88p, she debuted with notable promise, finishing fourth of 15 at Fairyhouse over 6f, performing best among those who came from behind after a slow start. Her FS% of 102.8 indicates efficient energy distribution, and she shaped as though 7f+ would suit well. Her pedigree leans towards middle distances, and her proven ability to finish strongly in a slowly run race is a key strength. She is expected to improve from her debut.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 15/8

• (2) MAYFLOWER (IRE): An unproven dark horse. While she has no prior form, her pedigree suggests untapped ability. She has a prominent early pace profile and could be suited by a tactical race if she can dominate. However, her trainer has a low profile, and others have stronger claims on paper.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 13/2

• (3) ZORKA (FR): An unproven runner to watch and learn from. She has no prior form, and her weak dam profile combined with a wide stall makes this a tough task on debut.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 16/1

• (4) VICTORIOUS DREAM (IRE): Another unproven runner to watch and learn from. She has no prior form, and her modest pedigree and trainer record make her hard to recommend on debut.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 10/1

• (5) SPINNING AROUND (IRE): A promising place chance. With a Timeform rating of 75, she ran fifth on debut, weakening late after tracking the pace. While her form is fair, it didn’t suggest immediate upside. From a good yard and related to stayers, she may be better suited to this trip if she settles better. She is drawn wide but could sit prominently in a race lacking early dash. She is considered “next best” by the Timeform Analyst.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 5/1

• (6) AMERILIS: The progressive main danger. With a Timeform rating of 72p, this well-bred filly was parked wide and never landed a blow on her debut in a strong Curragh maiden over 6f. She is expected to be much more effective over this longer trip, and the Twomey yard is in excellent form with a 27% strike rate at this distance and in mid-season. She represents significant upside and is bred to excel at 7f–1m. A tongue tie is on for the first time, which may sharpen her up. She is also expected to improve from her debut.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 3/1

• (7) CHERRY HILL GIRL (IRE): An unproven runner to watch and learn from. She has no prior form. While she has a pacey profile, she may struggle to stay or hold her position if challenged.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 12/1

ChatGPT Smart Plays:

• Win Bet: TEEWINOT. Reasoning: She has proven debut form, is well suited by the trip and tactical test, and her trainer is in form.

• Saver: AMERILIS. Reasoning: She is bred to be better at 7f, her wide-trip debut is forgivable, and she comes from a top yard with smart statistics.

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Leopardstown 18:27 – Saudi Cup Silver Flash Stakes (Group 3, 2yo Fillies, 7f 57y, Soft Ground)

Pace & Draw Angles: With Balantina a non-runner, this six-runner Group 3 race has a weak pace forecast, suggesting it may be a tactical affair. Skydance and Composing have mid-range early pace profiles and could secure key track positions. There is no discernible draw bias over this trip at Leopardstown on soft ground.

Runner Comments & Private Tissue Odds:

• (1) SKYDANCE: The proven and progressive strongest contender. With a Timeform Rating of 106p, she made eye-catching late headway when finishing third in the Group 2 Airlie Stud Stakes at the Curragh (6f). Her sectional (FS% 103.7) confirms her powerful finish, and the soft ground and 7f trip should be ideal. From a €1m yearling and a staying family, her progression and tactical adaptability could be decisive if the race becomes a test of stamina-laden finishing speed. The Timeform Analyst’s Verdict suggests she is the one to follow.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 9/4

• (2) BROWNSTOWN: A promising place player. With a Timeform Rating of 102p, she won well on debut at this course and distance, setting a decent gallop and holding the runner-up. While that race lacked depth, she showed a professional attitude. She is still raw and has more to come, but her lack of battle-hardened experience could expose her at this level. She cannot be discounted.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 9/2

• (3) COMPOSING (IRE): The progressive main danger. With a Timeform Rating of 101p, she took a significant step forward on her second start, winning at the Curragh (7f) with plenty in hand despite idling late. From a top Ballydoyle pedigree and with Ryan Moore booked, she holds strong credentials. Her Tfig (105.7) from that maiden win was solid, but she may be vulnerable if the race turns into a sprint, as she hasn’t yet faced listed/group company. She is of firm interest. Aidan O’Brien has 6 winners in the past 10 runnings of this race and a 21% strike rate at Leopardstown, while Ryan Moore has a 33% strike rate at the course.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 5/2

• (4) RED AUTUMN (IRE): A progressive interesting outsider. With a Timeform Rating of 96p, she bolted up by five lengths in a Bellewstown maiden over a mile, indicating strong stamina reserves. This was a marked improvement from her debut and suits today’s conditions. She is likely to be outpaced early but could finish strongly if the leaders go slowly up front.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 6/1

• (5) SMEXY (IRE): An unproven minor note. With a Timeform Rating of 86p, she showed plenty when finishing sixth of 15 in a Fairyhouse maiden, finishing with running left under hands and heels. Her FS% of 102.8 was respectable, and she is expected to improve. However, the jump to Group 3 company so soon may be a stretch, and she may learn more than she threatens.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 14/1

ChatGPT Smart Plays:

• Win Bet: SKYDANCE. Reasoning: She is Group 2-placed, the trip and ground will suit her, and she has a tactical edge in this race.

• Saver: COMPOSING. Reasoning: She is a Ballydoyle filly with a Group 1 pedigree, progressive, and in good form.

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Leopardstown 18:57 – Japan Racing Association Tyros Stakes (Group 3, 2yo, 7f 57y, Soft Ground)

Pace & Draw Angles: This four-runner Group 3 race lacks a genuine front-runner, and the pace is forecast to be weak. Prospect Thunder has the highest early pace profile but is likely to fade late. Flushing Meadows is tactically adaptable and well-positioned to capitalize in a sprint finish. There is no draw bias to consider in such a small field on soft ground.

Runner Comments & Private Tissue Odds:

• (1) PROSPECT THUNDER (IRE): An unproven outsider. He is a debutant from Adrian Murray in a Group 3, which is highly unconventional. His pedigree leans towards sprint/mile distances, and he has shown early pace on the pace map. However, this is a very steep task. Adrian Murray has a notable profit margin with debutants.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 20/1

• (2) NORTH COAST (IRE): The progressive main danger. With a Timeform Rating of 103, he was a smart winner of a Down Royal maiden. He then finished a solid second in a Listed race at Naas (1m), where he led from 2f out but couldn’t hold off the winner. That race was a good stamina test, and today’s easier tempo might not play to his strengths if it turns into a dash for home. However, he is proven at the trip and steadily improving, making him the chief threat to Flushing Meadows.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 5/2

• (3) FLANKER JET: Revealed but vulnerable – an interesting outsider. With a Timeform Rating of 93, his fourth-place finish in a Curragh maiden was respectable. However, his step up to listed level at Naas saw him tailed off by 18.5 lengths. The Timeform analyst suggests a drop in trip, indicating a need for speed over class stamina. He is best watched in this company.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 12/1

• (4) FLUSHING MEADOWS (USA): The proven and progressive strongest contender. With a Timeform Rating of 108p, he made a big impression on debut at the Curragh (6f), quickening smartly. He followed that with a close second in the G3 Anglesey Stakes over 6.3f, narrowly losing despite trading as short as 1.04 in-running. His FS% of 105.6 in that Group race points to excellent energy use and finishing speed. The step up to 7f should be a significant advantage given his breeding (dam is a sister to Alice Springs) and prior race shape. He is fancied to be tough to beat. Aidan O’Brien has 8 winners in the past 10 runnings of this race and a 21% strike rate at Leopardstown.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 4/7

ChatGPT Smart Plays:

• Win Bet: FLUSHING MEADOWS. Reasoning: He is Group 3-placed, shows strong closing fractions, and is best suited by the expected race shape.

• No Saver Advised: His clear tactical and class edge makes him the standout choice.

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Leopardstown 19:27 – Dublin to Bahrain Race Series Handicap (3yo, 1m 1f, Soft Ground)

Pace & Draw Angles: This four-runner handicap is forecast to be run at a very weak pace, which favors those who race handily. Onemoredance, who front-ran successfully last week, and Alice Monet, who also led last time, appear best positioned tactically. Refreshment, a hold-up type, faces a notable disadvantage unless the pace unexpectedly strengthens. With only four runners, the draw is immaterial.

Runner Comments & Private Tissue Odds:

• (1) ALICE MONET (IRE): An unexposed runner who needs more to win. With a Timeform Rating of 78, she took advantage of a weak claimer at Fairyhouse, dominating from the front and winning by 10 lengths. While that performance was visually strong, it was against modest opposition. She will need a significant improvement to match Onemoredance or Refreshment, but she is at least tactically advantaged and bred to stay.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 7/1

• (2) DANCING TEAPOT (IRE): A promising place chance. With a Timeform Rating of 83, her Ascot run in the Sandringham saw her finish 10th of 25, but she encountered trouble and stayed on well. Back in calmer waters and on soft ground, this race offers a fair chance to get back on track. However, her running style (tracking, not leading) and exposed handicap mark mean she has a little to find with the top two.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 7/2

• (3) REFRESHMENT (IRE): A proven main danger, but with a hold-up risk. With a Timeform Rating of 88, he is a dual winner in June at 8f, including over this course. He was repeatedly denied a clear run in a large-field handicap at the Curragh last time, finishing full of running, an effort that should be significantly marked up. However, in this small field, his hold-up style is a clear tactical disadvantage, and he may struggle to make an impact if the pace is sedate. He is the obvious threat. His trainer, Mark Fahey, has a strong profit record when having a single runner at a flat meeting.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 5/2

• (4) ONEMOREDANCE (IRE): The proven and progressive strongest contender. With a Timeform Rating of 92, this in-form filly is thriving in handicaps, having scored decisively over this C&D last week off her current mark of 76. She dictated from the front under a confident ride and was well on top at the line. Her FS% (103) and Tfig (60) from that win are modest but tactically sound. She acts on good to soft ground and appears capable of further improvement with positive rides in small fields. The 7lb claimer remains aboard. She has obvious claims for a hat-trick and usually races prominently.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 11/10

ChatGPT Smart Plays:

• Win Bet: ONEMOREDANCE. Reasoning: She is tactically advantaged, a proven winner at the track, and holds a significant form edge.

• No Saver Advised: Her clear tactical and form superiority makes her the standout choice.

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Leopardstown 19:57 – Boylesports Best Odds Guaranteed Rated Race (3yo, 1m4f180y, Soft Ground)

Pace & Draw Angles: This small-field 1m 6f event is forecast to be weakly run, placing a premium on race position and tactical speed. Fervent and Happy Pharoah appear best placed tactically, both typically racing prominently. Mister Adam, a front-runner by nature, may not get his own way if he’s slow to stride. The draw bias is irrelevant over this trip.

Runner Comments & Private Tissue Odds:

• (1) FERVENT (IRE): The progressive strongest contender. With a Timeform Rating of 98p, she has vastly improved since moving into handicaps, securing back-to-back wins at Fairyhouse with impressive style. Her most recent success was over 1m 4f on good to soft, where she travelled strongly and asserted late. Her stamina-laden pedigree and current progressive profile suggest this longer trip could unlock further potential. The soft pace suits her, and she still appears very well treated. She can complete the hat-trick.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 9/4

• (2) HAPPY PHAROAH (IRE): A proven interesting contender. With a Timeform Rating of 95, he has steadily improved since being tried over staying trips. He took advantage of a well-run maiden over C&D last time. A tongue tie and more aggressive handling from the front clearly helped him. However, in a small field with a weaker pace, he may not find the test as ideal unless he is aggressive again. He is one of the trio shortlisted by the Timeform Analyst.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 4/1

• (3) RED KING (IRE): A reliable main danger. With a Timeform Rating of 97, he has been knocking on the door, narrowly denied by Happy Pharoah over C&D before finishing runner-up again at Navan. He often trades short in running before being worn down, which raises questions about his finishing power in tight finishes. A first-time tongue tie has been added. While tactically sound, he might be vulnerable late on once more. He looks a danger with the new tongue strap, and typically races prominently.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 3/1

• (4) MARAZION (IRE): An unexposed runner who could place. With a Timeform Rating of 93, she has had two decent runs in minor events over 10f, showing improved settling last time. She will stay 1m 4f and comes from a stout family. She might go under the radar but needs to find significant improvement to challenge the top two.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 8/1

• (5) MISTER ADAM: An unproven contender regarding tactics – a dark horse. With a Timeform Rating of 95, he won a Leopardstown handicap over 12f when stepped up in trip. However, he is not guaranteed to get his own way with the pace here. While tactically adaptable, that win was in May, and he has not been seen for 74 days. He may improve but has something to prove tactically in a small field.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 5/1

• (6) FLORESTA (IRE): A progressive runner to watch for next time. With a Timeform Rating of 79p, she got off the mark in a Limerick maiden last time, drawing clear impressively. This is a significant jump in class, but her pedigree suggests strong stamina, and she is expected to improve further. She is tactically less suited here but is worth tracking for future races.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 10/1

ChatGPT Smart Plays:

• Win Bet: FERVENT. Reasoning: Her form, progressive profile, and the favorable pace scenario all point towards a hat-trick.

• No Saver Advised: Most other runners are either tactically unsuited or less progressive at their current marks.

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Leopardstown 20:27 – Turkish Jockey Club Handicap (3yo+, 1m7f, Soft Ground)

Pace & Draw Angles: This 10-runner, stamina-sapping 1m 7f event on soft turf has an even pace forecast, with several handy types expected to keep the pace honest but not excessive. Make Good and The Truant are likely to benefit most from the expected tempo, while hold-up types like Churchill Rose may struggle tactically. There is no relevant draw bias over this marathon trip.

Runner Comments & Private Tissue Odds:

• (1) OPEN TO QUESTION (USA): An unexposed interesting outsider. With a Timeform Rating of 80, he is very lightly raced on the Flat. He is a fair hurdler who likely needed his comeback run at Leopardstown after a long layoff. Dropping into handicap company now, he could be a dark horse if he progresses from that run. He returns to the Flat after hurdling and could be interesting with blinkers removed. He is also an appealing each-way option at potentially bigger prices, given his upside and scope from his mark.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 6/1

• (2) CURIOUS BRIDE (IRE): A reliable place contender. With a Timeform Rating of 78, she has been inconsistent this year but has run well at Tramore and on various ground types. She can race prominently, which suits here, and races off a workable mark. While vulnerable to improvers, she holds her own in this grade. Her last effort was one of her better ones.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 6/1

• (3) MAKE GOOD (IRE): The proven main danger. With a Timeform Rating of 81, he snapped a long losing streak impressively at Tramore, storming clear under a controlled ride in a softly run handicap. He has previous class over hurdles and is the type to build on that win with restored confidence. Ideally drawn and likely to settle in midfield, he is well treated off a mark of 68 given his past form. He clearly retains ability.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 9/2

• (4) ALBERT HIRSCH (IRE): Fully exposed, showing no promise lately. His best effort in maidens (fair form) was a sixth-place finish at Gowran in 2024.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 33/1

• (5) CHURCHILL ROSE (IRE): A hold-up risk with stamina doubts at this trip. She is a modest handicapper who won at Kempton in 2024 but has shown little impact in three maiden hurdles.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 16/1

• (6) NO BIG DEAL (IRE): Two poor efforts this term, showing patchy overall form. He is a fair maiden.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 14/1

• (7) MAKAIAH (IRE): The proven strongest contender. With a Timeform Rating of 80, she has been in good form all season with a win at Navan and strong recent second-place finishes at Limerick and Tramore. She stays 2m well, consistently performing to or above her mark. She is tactically versatile and ideally suited by the race shape. Despite carrying a career-high mark, she remains fairly treated on current evidence. She is in solid form and should remain competitive.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 4/1

• (8) RANTING AND RAVEN (IRE): A promising runner to watch closely. With a Timeform Rating of 76, this 3yo is gradually improving. She has two fair third-place finishes recently over similar trips, including a solid effort at Down Royal last week. Lightly raced and stays well. She may be on the upgrade but needs to prove herself against older rivals. She is an appealing each-way option at potentially bigger prices, with upside and scope from her mark, and usually races close up.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 13/2

• (9) THE TRUANT (IRE): An unreliable sleeper threat. With a Timeform Rating of 78, he is talented but inconsistent. He has been below form since a Navan win in April. He may benefit from returning to a staying trip with a more even gallop. He tends to trade shorter in running than his final result implies, so market moves will be crucial.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 8/1

• (10) QUIZ TEST (IRE): Out of form this season and needs a bounce back. He is a fair handicapper.

    ◦ Private Tissue Odds: 12/1

ChatGPT Smart Plays:

• Win Bet: MAKAIAH. Reasoning: She is honest and thriving, and her ideal tactical spot makes her a strong contender.

• Each-Way Saver: OPEN TO QUESTION. Reasoning: Back on the Flat, he benefits from a hurdles fitness edge and offers sneaky value.

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