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17:15 Chepstow – ROBERT STEPHENS CASTLE FARM RACING CLUB HANDICAP (Class 6, 7f 16y)

Pace Angles & Draw Bias:
The Pace Forecast is Very Weak, suggesting a likely muddling gallop that should suit runners who race prominently or can sit handy early. There is no evident draw bias at Chepstow over this trip on good ground in small fields.

Runner Comments:

• CLASSY CLARETS (IRE) (TFR: 76)
  • Fair handicapper, won at Wolverhampton in May.
  • Looked a hard ride and was well held at Doncaster last time, hanging badly left.
  • Often slowly away/races off pace, making him inconsistent and tough to trust.
• DARK SUN (TFR: 74)
  • Fair maiden handicapper, placed on last two starts including a second at Lingfield and a third at Brighton.
  • Her form has solidified since joining James Bennett.
  • Well drawn in stall 2. Although usually held up, she’s tactically versatile and capable of laying up close enough if they don’t dawdle too much.
• ASHFORD HILL (TFR: 77)
  • Modest handicapper, recorded a respectable fifth at Goodwood last time, hanging right.
  • Can sometimes be slowly away. Lightly weighted, she might grab a place if the race collapses.
• ROMANOVICH (IRE) (TFR: 74)
  • Fair handicapper, won at Chepstow in May.
  • He should be better placed than JOHNJAY in a slowly-run race.
  • A proven course winner, he is well suited to today’s trip, track, and likely race shape. His last two defeats can be forgiven. He is expected to go forward and be hard to pass.
• SOI DAO (IRE) (TFR: 76)
  • Fair handicapper, ran creditably when third at Chepstow last time.
  • A consistent mare and course winner, she has posted solid Timefigures all season.
  • She’s not easy to win with (1-33 career record), but her tactical speed and stamina are assets in a race lacking depth. She is game and genuine, acting on course and going, but a win is always hard-earned.
• AUTUMN ROSE (IRE) (TFR: 75)
  • Fair handicapper, won at Wolverhampton in February.
  • Her recent ninth at Chester was respectable, but she carried her head awkwardly and often starts slowly. She showed a one-paced return at Chester, with her slow starts being a negative.
• JOHNJAY (TFR: 78)
  • Workmanlike fair handicapper, won at Brighton in May.
  • Was below form at Ffos Las last time and drops back in trip.
  • He is drawn widest, and his mid-to-rear run style is a risk in a slow pace. He is capable, but his hold-up style in a small field is a red flag.

Private Tissue Estimate (Win Odds):

• Romanovich – 3/1
• Dark Sun – 7/2
• Soi Dao – 9/2
• Johnjay – 5/1
• Autumn Rose – 10/1
• Classy Clarets – 12/1
• Ashford Hill – 14/1

ChatGPT Smart Plays:

• Win Selection: ROMANOVICH – He is well-handicapped, tactically advantaged for the slow pace, and has a proven record at this track.
• Each-Way Saver: DARK SUN – Her form is solid, she can sit close to the pace, and she is considered more reliable than many in this lineup. This is a solid each-way proposition, especially if her price holds above 4/1.

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17:50 Chepstow – ZANE JAMES AUTISTIC CHARITY SUPPORT NURSERY HANDICAP (Class 6, 7f 16y)

Pace Angles & Draw Bias:
A very weak pace is forecast, making this a tactical affair. DUBAI TIME and LEXINGTON EXPRESS are better positioned to control the tempo, while LADY LAUREN may be disadvantaged by her hold-up style. No strong draw bias is evident over this trip at Chepstow in such small fields.

Runner Comments:

• LADY LAUREN (IRE) (TFR: 66)
  • Showed more when second in a nursery at Ffos Las last time, though her form is generally poor.
  • She traded at a quarter or less of her starting Betfair SP when beaten on her latest outing.
  • Her second at Ffos Las was eyecatching, but the race was very weak, and she traded short without getting home. She is 0-5 and tends to need things to fall right, with the race shape likely working against her.
• REJJIEN (IRE) (TFR: -)
  • Has been well held in minor events/maidens.
  • Looks out of depth on known form and is hard to fancy on raw ratings.
• DUBAI TIME (TFR: 67)
  • Modest form, but was fourth in a nursery at Chester last time.
  • Ought to be better placed than LADY LAUREN in a slowly-run race.
  • She is top-rated and has run with promise on all four starts. Returning to a more conventional track with an ideal setup, she is likely to be on the pace and represents an in-form trainer. Her Timefigures confirm her consistency and stamina.
• CORNICHE GIRL (IRE) (TFR: 62)
  • Modest form, including a third in a Doncaster maiden but was out of depth in the Super Sprint last time.
  • She now takes a significant class drop and possesses enough early pace to avoid the worst of a crawl. A bounce-back in this company would not be a shock, though her top figure (57) still leaves a little to find.
• LEXINGTON EXPRESS (IRE) (TFR: 63)
  • Her best effort (modest form) was a fifth in a Chelmsford maiden in June.
  • Her pedigree suggests improvement for the step up in trip, and she has been ridden forward recently, which is a tactical advantage. However, her finishing effort has been modest, and she needs to find significant improvement.

Private Tissue Estimate (Win Odds):

• Dubai Time – 13/8
• Lady Lauren – 11/4
• Corniche Girl – 4/1
• Lexington Express – 6/1
• Rejjien – 33/1

ChatGPT Smart Plays:

• Win Selection: DUBAI TIME – Her form, pace profile, and ratings strongly indicate she is the one to beat in this tactical affair.
• Each-Way Saver: None – as there are fewer than 8 runners, each-way bets are not applicable.

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18:25 Chepstow – 3AS CARAVANS & MOTORHOME EBF RESTRICTED MAIDEN STAKES (Class 5, 6f 16y)

Pace Angles & Draw Bias:
This is projected to be a weakly run race, with several likely to sit off the early pace. Prominent racers are usually favoured. MAGIC STONE and BERYL’S GIRL are best placed to benefit, while SORTED may find himself caught flat-footed. There’s no consistent draw bias over this trip at Chepstow, though high numbers are slightly favoured in bigger fields.

Runner Comments:

• BERYL’S GIRL (TFR: 63)
  • Ran eighth of eleven in a minor event at Newbury.
  • She is tactically better positioned than most in this race and could cling on for a minor placing.
• MAGIC STONE (IRE) (TFR: 82)
  • Showed marked improvement when running on to finish second at Chepstow last time.
  • His Timefig (72) and Adj (82) are the clear tops in this field.
  • From a powerful stable with excellent mid-season and sprint strike rates (24%/22%), he should dominate or stalk the pace in this tactical contest.
• SORTED (IRE) (TFR: 52)
  • Has no prior form given in the sources.
  • His breeding is fine, but the awkward pace setup may disadvantage this newcomer.
• RED SNAPPER (TFR: -)
  • Has been well held in two maidens.
  • Two heavy defeats to date and little in his pedigree suggests significant improvement is imminent.
• SUMMER SPARKLE (IRE) (TFR: 65)
  • No prior form is given in the sources.
  • A hooded newcomer from a modest stable, it would be a surprise if she features on debut.
• PEPPER FIZZ (TFR: 77)
  • Showed modest form, with a better effort being a fourth-place finish at Windsor in June.
  • She has been beaten by six lengths in maiden company and needs another step forward to be competitive.
• CAREFREE DREAM (TFR: 79)
  • A fair maiden, she improved to finish third at Wolverhampton last time.
  • She touched an in-running low under half her starting Betfair SP when beaten on her latest outing.
  • Exposed after five runs but remains consistent, posting back-to-back ratings in the 70+ range. However, her held-up style may not suit today’s predicted crawl.
• MADMAN (TFR: 66)
  • Finished mid-field in two minor events.
  • He ran better than the bare result last time when shuffled back. Capable of further improvement with fair speed metrics, but would benefit from a stronger gallop. He could improve but needs the race to collapse late.
• BLINGY’S SISTER (IRE) (TFR: 78)
  • No prior form is given in the sources.
  • She is a nicely bred filly for an in-form yard. Though unraced, she has a good profile for this grade and could be sharper than most. Market support would be significant.

Private Tissue Estimate (Win Odds):

• Magic Stone – 6/5
• Carefree Dream – 4/1
• Blingy’s Sister – 6/1
• Madman – 9/1
• Beryl’s Girl – 10/1
• Pepper Fizz – 14/1
• Sorted – 16/1
• Red Snapper – 40/1
• Summer Sparkle – 50/1

ChatGPT Smart Plays:

• Win Selection: MAGIC STONE – His strong form, ideal conditions, and progressive profile make him the top pick.
• Each-Way Saver: BLINGY’S SISTER – This well-bred newcomer could easily outperform her odds in this field. There could be value each-way in her if Magic Stone goes odds-on.

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19:00 Chepstow – ROXY JAMES YOUNG CARERS SUPPORT HANDICAP (Class 5, 5f 16y)

Pace Angles & Draw Bias:
This sprint is predicted to have an even pace, which suits prominent racers or those who can sit handy early. ROACH POWER, SAVANNAH SMILES, and SECRET HANDSHEIKH are expected to be on the speed, while CONNIE’S ROSE is best suited tactically. CHARLIE MASON, being a slow starter and hold-up type, is the main sufferer from this setup. There is no significant draw bias in small-field 5f races at Chepstow on good ground.

Runner Comments:

• CHARLIE MASON (TFR: 83)
  • Fair handicapper, with wins at Wolverhampton and Leicester in April.
  • Was below form at Chester last time after a 10-week layoff.
  • He often starts slowly and races off pace, a poor setup for his run style, making him hard to support unless there’s a significant pace collapse.
• PEARL’S EDGE (TFR: 78)
  • Has fair form, placing third in a maiden at Windsor in 2024 and fourth at Bath last time.
  • She is very lightly raced and is returning from a long layoff, making it unlikely she will be at peak performance, but there is some upside.
• CONNIE’S ROSE (TFR: 82)
  • Has had a breathing operation and is a fair handicapper, finishing second at Chepstow in June.
  • Her recent third at Chepstow was respectable despite stumbling at the start and losing a shoe.
  • She usually leads and her mid-race cruising speed and finishing effort make her well suited to today’s race shape. She has a reliable profile and a strong Chepstow record.
• SECRET HANDSHEIKH (TFR: 82)
  • A workmanlike fair handicapper, he won twice at Brighton in 2024 and was second at Windsor in April, but has been well below form in his last two starts.
  • He usually runs prominently and is expected to be on the speed.
  • He is exposed but capable at his best. He needs a career-best to win and has disappointed frequently in similar contests, but retains place hopes if he can rediscover his spark.
• SAVANNAH SMILES (IRE) (TFR: 80)
  • A fair handicapper and a consistent course specialist, having won at Chepstow in July and finishing second there last time, clear of the rest.
  • She is in flying form, has tactical speed, acts on all ground types, and is thriving. She is well drawn and should go forward.
• ROACH POWER (IRE) (TFR: 84)
  • A strong, fair handicapper, he readily won a 7-runner event at Ffos Las last time, making all.
  • He usually runs prominently and is expected to be on the speed.
  • He looked a natural over 5f and posted a career-best TFR (70+). He is on an upward curve, and the penalty appears manageable.

Private Tissue Estimate (Win Odds):

• Roach Power – 13/8
• Savannah Smiles – 11/4
• Connie’s Rose – 7/2
• Secret Handsheikh – 10/1
• Pearl’s Edge – 12/1
• Charlie Mason – 14/1

ChatGPT Smart Plays:

• Win Selection: ROACH POWER – He was a dominant winner last time and is expected to dictate the pace again from a handy draw.
• Each-Way Saver: None – as there are fewer than 8 runners, each-way bets are not applicable.

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19:35 Chepstow – CAPITAL WINDSCREENS CANCER SUPPORT HANDICAP (Class 5, 1m 14y)

Pace Angles & Draw Bias:
This race is forecast to have a strong early pace, with multiple pace-forcing types like LETTER OF THE LAW, MOST WANTED, and DARVEL. This setup should favour hold-up or patiently-ridden types, especially those drawn mid-to-high, as Chepstow often rewards cover-seekers over this trip. SPIRIT OF THE BAY and CELEBRATING ETHEL emerge as tactically advantaged closers. The draw bias slightly favours middle stalls.

Runner Comments:

• SUNNY CORNER (TFR: 83)
  • Fair handicapper, won multiple races in 2024 and recently returned to form with a second at Newbury in a stronger Class 4.
  • He drops in class and remains competitively weighted. His prominent style could leave him vulnerable late against a strong pace, but his recent Timefig (77) and TFR (82) underline his ability.
• MOST WANTED (IRE) (TFR: 78)
  • Has had a breathing operation and is a fair handicapper, winning easily at Leicester last time by dictating the pace.
  • He looked flattered by that win and may not get the same luxury in a strongly run affair, making him vulnerable late. He is considered a bounce candidate.
• SPIRIT OF THE BAY (IRE) (TFR: 79)
  • A lengthy, quirky but talented mare, she won at Chepstow last time despite flashing her tail.
  • She is expected to increase her prospects in a strong pace and should get cover, enabling a strong finish if she settles early. She is a strong-finishing type, with her temperament being the main caveat.
• SERIOUS LOOK (IRE) (TFR: 84)
  • Has had a breathing operation and is a fair handicapper, winning at Wolverhampton in April and May.
  • He shaped well when third at Wolverhampton last time despite a poor start. He has solid AW form, but his turf capabilities need to be proven. Market strength would enhance his claims.
• DARVEL (IRE) (TFR: 80)
  • A rangy fair handicapper, he won at Bath in April and was a creditable third at Sandown last time.
  • He is likely to push on early. He is competitive but needs a perfect setup and may be challenged for the lead.
• HOSTELRY (TFR: 81)
  • A lengthy, well-made mare and fair handicapper, she has won multiple races this year, including at Nottingham, Hamilton, and Beverley.
  • She comes here in tremendous form (3 wins from last 5) and finished strongly at Hamilton recently. She thrives at this course and is tactically adaptable, making her a reliable option.
• DAPPLED LIGHT (TFR: 80)
  • Fair handicapper, won at Chepstow and Bath in May.
  • He was below form at Chester last time. He has a consistent and solid record here, but recent regression is a concern, and he will need to bounce back.
• LHEBAYEB (GER) (TFR: 79)
  • Fair handicapper, with wins at Wolverhampton and Chepstow this year, and a good second at Ffos Las last time.
  • She is in good heart but is exposed and might lack an extra late gear in this field.
• CELEBRATING ETHEL (IRE) (TFR: 82)
  • A modest handicapper, she was runner-up in her first two starts this year but has been below form since.
  • While her prospects won’t diminish in a strong pace, her numbers are regressive, and she looks held despite potentially running on late.
• LETTER OF THE LAW (IRE) (TFR: 75)
  • A modest handicapper, he went off too hard last time.
  • He is likely to push on early, but his tactical style is wrong for this strong pace and he needs less pressure to shine.

Private Tissue Estimate (Win Odds):

• Sunny Corner – 4/1
• Spirit of the Bay – 11/2
• Hostelry – 6/1
• Serious Look – 13/2
• Most Wanted – 8/1
• Darvel – 10/1
• Lhebayeb – 10/1
• Dappled Light – 12/1
• Celebrating Ethel – 20/1
• Letter of the Law – 33/1

ChatGPT Smart Plays:

• Win Selection: SUNNY CORNER – He benefits from a class drop, is proven at the trip, and appears to be peaking at the right time.
• Each-Way Saver: SPIRIT OF THE BAY – Her strong finishing style, favourable tactical draw, and consistent form on this course make her a value option. HOSTELRY also offers solid each-way appeal with a suitable pace shape.

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20:10 Chepstow – 3A’S CARAVAN & MOTORHOME CLASSIFIED STAKES (Class 6, 1m 14y)

Pace Angles & Draw Bias:
This looks like a strongly run race, with several likely to push on early, including HAWAJES, SCENARIO, VECCHIO, and TIME AFTER TIME. Despite the anticipated gallop, Chepstow at this trip doesn’t favour pure hold-up types, so those with mid-pack tracking ability may be best suited. The draw bias slightly favours middle stalls in big fields over this distance, giving a minor advantage to types like SCENARIO, TOO MUCH TREVOR, and MARISITTA.

Runner Comments:

• ROHILLA (IRE) (TFR: -)
  • Has shown very little form. Tried in blinkers, she is usually slowly away and often races freely. Her figures are poor, and she is best watched.
• LASSWADE (TFR: -)
  • Has no form in maidens/handicaps in the sources. She shows no meaningful form and is an unlikely stayer.
• PORT NOIR (TFR: ?)
  • A rather leggy mare who has had breathing operations and bled in a penultimate start.
  • Her form is unreliable, and her draw is considered a negative.
• VECCHIO (IRE) (TFR: ?)
  • A modest maiden handicapper, he has been below form in his last three starts and often starts slowly. He is returning from a long layoff with little prior promise.
• SCENARIO (TFR: 58)
  • A good-topped filly and modest performer, she won a 14-runner minor event at Lingfield last time by 1¾ lengths, pulling clear late.
  • That win rates highly on adjusted figures (58 Adj), and she has the ideal blend of early speed and stamina for this contest. Despite a penalty, she remains the one to beat.
• MARISITTA (TFR: 57)
  • A modest maiden handicapper, she was fourth at Chepstow in June but below form last time.
  • She is inconsistent but has hinted at ability and is drawn acceptably.
• DOCTOR DAUILA (IRE) (TFR: 57)
  • A rather leggy filly, her modest form includes a second in a Chepstow handicap in May, but she has been down the field in minor events since. Her profile is uninspiring.
• WESTINGTON HOUSE (USA) (TFR: -)
  • She has been well held in minor events/maidens and has weak overall form; her market support may provide guidance.
• HAWAJES (IRE) (TFR: 56§)
  • A modest performer, he won a minor event at Southwell in January but was well held at Brighton last time, going with little fluency. He starts slowly and races well off pace. He is out of sorts, and an early pace role may compromise his finishing effort.
• MY BROTHER MIKE (IRE) (TFR: 64)
  • A tall gelding who has had breathing operations, he is a modest handicapper on turf but fair on all-weather. He won at Wolverhampton in February.
  • He is a huge threat on his AW form, but his layoff is a concern.
• FACT OR FABLE (IRE) (TFR: 60)
  • A sturdy modest performer, he won a minor event at Bath in June and ran well when fourth there last time.
  • He won this race last year (one of 4 course wins) and thrives in these low-grade mile handicaps, confirming his return to form. He is consistent and acts at the track but may be vulnerable to progressive types.
• TIME AFTER TIME (IRE) (TFR: 57)
  • A modest maiden, she was fifth at Wolverhampton last time, needing a stiffer test, and will be suited by a return to 1m. She looks like a slow improver who may need a stronger test.
• TOO MUCH TREVOR (TFR: 60§)
  • A smallish modest maiden handicapper, he had one of his better efforts when third at Chepstow last time.
  • He traded at 50% or less of his starting Betfair SP when beaten last time out. He is shaping well and has tactical speed, drawn well to stalk the pace, though he is not straightforward.
• HELLAVAPACE (TFR: 62)
  • A compact modest handicapper, she won at Brighton in 2024 and posted her best effort this season when second at Wolverhampton last time.
  • She showed signs of revival and is considered. She has solid past form and could run well if repeating her last run.

Private Tissue Estimate (Win Odds):

• Scenario – 4/1
• Eye of the Water – 6/1
• Fact or Fable – 13/2
• Hellavapace – 15/2
• Too Much Trevor – 8/1
• My Brother Mike – 9/1
• Time After Time – 14/1
• Marisitta – 16/1
• Hawajes – 20/1
• Port Noir – 25/1
• Doctor Dauila – 33/1
• Westington House – 40/1
• Vecchio – 50/1
• Rohilla – 66/1
• Lasswade – 100/1

ChatGPT Smart Plays:

• Win Selection: SCENARIO – He scored confidently last time and is suited by the expected strong pace.
• Each-Way Saver: HELLAVAPACE – She ran her best race recently and is well drawn in a field that lacks depth. TOO MUCH TREVOR also offers solid each-way appeal.

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20:45 Chepstow – HAPPY BIRTHDAY HARRY BETHAN KAREN ANNE-HUGHES HANDICAP (Class 6, 1m 2f)

Pace Angles & Draw Bias:
With an even pace forecast, this race favours those able to race handily. FIGHTING QUEEN, MEET ME IN MERAKI, and TONAL are best positioned tactically, while RACING DEMON and MARCHETTI, being hold-up types, are potentially disadvantaged unless the pace is very strong. No significant draw bias is present at 10f on this configuration.

Runner Comments:

• MEET ME IN MERAKI (TFR: 66)
  • A leggy fair handicapper, he won at Wolverhampton in January.
  • He shaped well when fourth at Doncaster last time despite doing too much too soon.
  • He drops in class and has CD form, putting him in the mix if he settles better today. He should be favoured at an even pace and is likely to be prominent.
• RACING DEMON (TFR: 66§)
  • A good-topped modest handicapper and course specialist, he had one of his better efforts when second at Ffos Las last time, just failing.
  • He starts slowly and usually races off pace, making him potentially disadvantaged by the even pace. He will need pace help from stall 8 and is vulnerable late. He is not straightforward.
• FIGHTING QUEEN (TFR: 67)
  • A fair handicapper, she won at Bath in May but has been inconsistent, not repeating that effort in subsequent runs.
  • She usually races prominently and should be favoured with an even pace. She is capable, but her profile is patchy, and the race needs to unfold perfectly for her.
• HARLINGTON (FR) (TFR: 69)
  • A strong modest handicapper, he was second at Ffos Las last time, beating the rest easily.
  • He had a big run behind a well-treated winner, confirming his well-being with a strong Timefigure (110.9) and solid TFR (69). He is consistent and tactically flexible, making him the one to beat.
• BAIKAL (TFR: 68)
  • Has had a breathing operation and is a modest handicapper, winning at Lingfield in January and running a good second at Ffos Las in June.
  • He is better known over longer distances but has solid 10f figures. He raced on ground that may not have suited last time and is weighted to be competitive. He has a solid middle-distance profile.
• MARCHETTI (IRE) (TFR: 66)
  • A lengthy mare with breathing operations, she is a modest handicapper who won at Chepstow in 2024 and placed seven times that year.
  • She was below form at Kempton last time and races off pace. She is potentially disadvantaged by the even pace. While she returns to a course of past success, her recent numbers are below her peak.
• TONAL (FR) (TFR: 66)
  • A tall modest handicapper, he won at Wolverhampton in 2024 but was well below form last time.
  • He ought to be up early but has disappointed before after trading much lower than Betfair SP. He is best positioned tactically, but has a history of disappointing after trading short in the run and is considered untrustworthy.
• BONDI MAN (TFR: 65)
  • Has had a breathing operation and is a modest maiden. His best recent effort was a third at Nottingham in June. He is one-paced and modest, and a win from him would be a surprise.

Private Tissue Estimate (Win Odds):

• Harlington – 3/1
• Meet Me In Meraki – 4/1
• Racing Demon – 5/1
• Baikal – 6/1
• Fighting Queen – 10/1
• Marchetti – 12/1
• Tonal – 14/1
• Bondi Man – 33/1

ChatGPT Smart Plays:

• Win Selection: HARLINGTON – He has strong recent figures and the shape of the race suits his style perfectly.
• Each-Way Saver: MEET ME IN MERAKI – He returns to Class 6 with conditions in his favour, making him a sound each-way value given his course form and class drop.

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