Field: 7 runners | Eligibility: 3yo+ | Handicap range: 0–65

Pace Forecast: Weak – very little early pace, suggesting a steady-to-crawling gallop.
Draw Bias: No significant draw bias noted over this trip at Ayr.
Pace Implication: The weak pace is likely to favour DANZAN and MATTICE, both of whom race prominently or lead. Hold-up horses, such as THUNDERSTORM KATIE and NO NAY NEVERMIND, may struggle unless they secure ideal track position early.

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2. Strongest Contenders + Main Dangers + Interesting Outsiders + Trends/Timeform Comments:

Strongest Contender – DANZAN (Proven):
Returned to form when winning over C&D last time in a better-run race, with strong late energy use (72 adj). Has won off higher marks, remains well treated, and suits the forecast pace. Front-runner who thrives when controlling a steady gallop. A solid option despite his inconsistency.

Main Danger – HAVANA RUM (Progressive):
String of placed efforts, twice running to a figure of 72+ in recent starts. Returns to 6f with cheekpieces refitted, which may sharpen his focus late. Can start slowly and hung last time, but has shown repeated upside. Track suits; chance increases if pace is stronger than expected.

Main Danger – MATTICE (Proven):
Bounced back at Carlisle when making all in a field lacking pace pressure. Won’t get the same easy lead here, but he’s well drawn to attack. Vulnerable late if pressured but retains winning form and fitness.

Interesting Outsider – THUNDERSTORM KATIE (Promising):
Shaped well behind Danzan last time, best of the hold-up runners off a break. With that run under her belt, she could improve. Still a maiden, but lightly raced this term and improving gradually.

Others:

• GISELLES IZZY (Exposed): Runs well at Ayr but has limitations at this trip. Found little under pressure last time.
• JUMP THE GUN (Regressive): Continues to shape respectably but has clear quirks and usually needs more pace.
• NO NAY NEVERMIND (Unproven): Better effort last time but still carrying her head awkwardly; watching brief advised.

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3. Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis:

• DANZAN: 8.5/10 – Trip ideal, thrives at Ayr, well positioned tactically.
• HAVANA RUM: 8/10 – Trip and track suit; slight temperament concern but peaking now.
• MATTICE: 7.5/10 – Needs to dominate; less effective if taken on but well-in on last win.
• GISELLES IZZY: 6/10 – Best form over further; pace setup not ideal.
• THUNDERSTORM KATIE: 6.5/10 – Could progress with last run under belt, pace setup a negative.
• JUMP THE GUN: 6/10 – Track suits, but race shape and overall trend suggest place claims at best.
• NO NAY NEVERMIND: 5/10 – Still learning, but lacks polish; minor award the best hope.

Advice:
“Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.”
“Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.”

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4. Each-Way Angles:

No Each-Way advice – only 7 runners.

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5. Private Tissue Estimate:

• DANZAN – 5/2
• HAVANA RUM – 3/1
• MATTICE – 9/2
• THUNDERSTORM KATIE – 6/1
• GISELLES IZZY – 7/1
• JUMP THE GUN – 10/1
• NO NAY NEVERMIND – 16/1

Advice:
“Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.”

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6. Summary + Professional Punter View (Smart Play):

Race Setup:
This looks a race where early track position will be key given the lack of pace. Those that can settle in the front half should dominate the outcome. DANZAN holds track form and timing advantage; MATTICE has recency but less flexibility tactically; HAVANA RUM has a strong set of figures but needs cheekpieces to sharpen finishing effort.

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Smart Play:

Win Bet: DANZAN – well drawn, goes well here, and should get first run in a weak-pace scenario.
Saver/Secondary Bet: HAVANA RUM – consistent, capable of winning if cheekpieces galvanise.