Pace Forecast: Very Weak – no obvious pace-setter and most runners prefer to be held up or race mid-division.
Draw Bias: N/A – over this extended staying trip, draw holds little significance.
Pace Implication: The muddling pace is a concern for CARLTON, who is usually held up, but will likely benefit GREEN TEAM and STRING OF PEARLS, both of whom can take a hand from prominent positions.
2. Strongest Contenders + Main Dangers + Interesting Outsiders + Trends/Timeform Comments:
Strongest Contender – STRING OF PEARLS (Promising):
Sir Mark Prescott’s filly showed big improvement when stepped up to 12f at Goodwood, rallying well despite greenness to win with authority (80+ adj). Bred for staying trips, further improvement is likely now she tries 14f. Trainer’s strong record in this type of race (multiple winners of this contest) strengthens confidence.
Main Danger – GREEN TEAM (Progressive):
Back to form winning narrowly at Thirsk under a good tactical ride. Has a record of finding enough off the bridle in small fields and handles most surfaces. Race shape will suit, though he is rarely flashy and might be vulnerable to a classier stayer.
Main Danger – LITTLE SAVER (Promising):
Still lightly raced and stuck on gamely last time at Newmarket over 12f. Manner of running suggests this longer trip will suit. He’s not yet the finished article, but brings upside and strong stamina signals on pedigree.
Interesting Outsider – TYPHOON DANCER (Unexposed):
Modest figures so far, but has hinted at ability, and is bred to improve with distance and time. Wouldn’t need to find much to get involved in a steadily-run affair.
Others:
- KOTARI (Inconsistent): Better judged on Goodwood run but bombed at Epsom in a weak amateur event. Unreliable profile tempers enthusiasm despite strong stamina.
- CARLTON (Flat-Lining): Recent hurdle and AW form decent, but reliant on strong pace to come into the race. That’s unlikely here.
3. Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis:
- STRING OF PEARLS: 8.5/10 – Stamina-rich pedigree, ideal setup, big scope to improve.
- GREEN TEAM: 8/10 – Tactically versatile and in-form; race suits.
- LITTLE SAVER: 7.5/10 – Will appreciate the trip; shaping like a stayer.
- TYPHOON DANCER: 6.5/10 – Untapped potential, may outrun odds.
- KOTARI: 6/10 – Mixed signals; needs to bounce back.
- CARLTON: 5.5/10 – Wrong setup, and recent flat/hurdle runs suggest place at best.
Advice:
“Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.”
“Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.”
4. Each-Way Angles:
No Each-Way advice – only 6 runners.
5. Private Tissue Estimate:
- STRING OF PEARLS – 6/4
- GREEN TEAM – 3/1
- LITTLE SAVER – 9/2
- KOTARI – 7/1
- TYPHOON DANCER – 10/1
- CARLTON – 12/1
Advice:
“Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.”
Summary + Professional Punter View (Smart Play):
Race Shape Summary:
With an almost guaranteed crawl, early position and stamina reserves will be critical. The likely leaders (STRING OF PEARLS and GREEN TEAM) have both shown ability to find off a slow gallop, whereas hold-up types risk being caught flat-footed.
Smart Play:
Win Bet: STRING OF PEARLS – unexposed 3yo, improving sharply, and under a trainer with a phenomenal record in similar races.
No Each-Way Saver – insufficient runners.
Leave a comment