Pace + Tactical Angles:

Pace Forecast: Weak – Few committed pace angles; Pol Roger and Raulin likely to be best positioned up front.

Draw Bias: Strong low draw advantage – Particularly pronounced in small fields over this trip.

Tactical Note: The setup should suit handy runners drawn low, with prominent racers at a marked advantage. Hold-up types like Desert Emperor and Dawn of Liberation risk getting caught in a dash.



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Contenders + Tactical Fit + Trends

Strongest Contenders:

RAULIN (86 TFR) – Only 3yo in the field and shaped well in deeper contests before flopping at 12f. This 10f trip and strong low draw are ideal, and he’s best when ridden positively. Has shown a high cruising speed and can take advantage of the likely soft fractions. Progressive and tactically suited.

POL ROGER (85 TFR) – Inconsistent, but has gone close in stronger company and now gets a key draw and a chance to lead. Forgive last run on softer ground, and could be primed to bounce back. Proven at this level and best when allowed to dominate.



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Main Dangers:

TIME TELLS ALL (84 TFR) – Finally got off the mark at Beverley in a race that fell right for him. Has disappointed after hitting low IR before, and may be a touch vulnerable if forced wide or if pace is muddling. Capable, but pace and tactics dependent.

UP THE JAZZ (84 TFR) – Went close two starts back and remains on a workable mark. Often races close up and the slight drop in class here is notable. Respected if within striking range turning in.



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Interesting Outsiders:

DAWN OF LIBERATION (83 TFR) – Ruth Carr’s team are flying and he had a troubled run at Ripon last time. Will need luck from mid-pack in a slow-run affair but has class form and could surprise late. Capable but needs luck in running.

LOOKS FANTASTIC (81 TFR) – Unexposed 3yo from a shrewd yard, flashed the tail at Doncaster last time but shaped as if the penny is dropping. Lively outsider with scope. Promising.



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Runner Scores and Suitability

Raulin: 8.5/10 – Ideal draw, track, and pace setup.

Pol Roger: 7.5/10 – Bounce back angle with strong tactical setup.

Time Tells All: 7/10 – Ground and trip fine; track/draw less ideal.

Up The Jazz: 7/10 – Stays well and returns quickly.

Dawn of Liberation: 6.5/10 – Eyecatching last time, but draw a concern.

Looks Fantastic: 6.5/10 – Lightly raced, may be better than bare form.

Desert Emperor: 5.5/10 – Lacks tactical edge in this scenario.

Masekela: 5.5/10 – Not straightforward; bounce-back required.

Sayf Al Dawla: 4.5/10 – Very risky; refused to race previously.


Advice: “Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.”
“Watch out for in-form handicappers returning quickly; they can be hot.”


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Each-Way Angles (9 runners)

POL ROGER – Can boss this from the front off a falling mark.

LOOKS FANTASTIC – Lightly raced with pedigree and a possible leap in him.



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Private Tissue Estimate

Raulin – 3/1

Pol Roger – 5/1

Time Tells All – 11/2

Up The Jazz – 13/2

Dawn of Liberation – 9/1

Looks Fantastic – 10/1

Desert Emperor – 12/1

Masekela – 14/1

Sayf Al Dawla – 33/1


Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.


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Summary & Smart Play

Raulin finds his ideal setup: 10f, front-running, low draw, and against older handicappers. If allowed a breather early, he could dominate. Pol Roger also fits the track profile and could get a solo if Raulin doesn’t go forward. Conditions are against hold-ups like Desert Emperor.


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Smart Play

Win Bet: RAULIN (proven speed, perfect draw, returns to ideal trip)

Each-Way Saver: POL ROGER (backable mark, right tactical setup)



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