Pace + Tactical Angles:

Pace Forecast: Even – Several can race handily, with Keel Strand, Earth King, and Saint Bibiana likely prominent.

Course Angle: Uttoxeter often favours those racing handily at this trip, especially on good ground. Hold-up types like Party Business may find themselves with too much ground to make up unless the pace lifts unexpectedly.



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Contenders + Tactical Fit + Trends

Strongest Contenders:

KEEL STRAND (144p TFR) – Progressive and unbeaten in 3 handicap starts since a breathing op. Well positioned tactically, stays well, and still on an upward curve. Carried weight easily last time at Newton Abbot, and has stamina in abundance. Promising and tactically sound.

SAINT BIBIANA (146 TFR) – 3 from 3 in staying hurdles this season, including over C&D when comfortably beating Minella Rescue. Versatile and races close up, which is a plus. Just keeps improving and is thriving for the Nicholls team. Proven and thriving.

EARTH KING (145 TFR) – Good record when completing, including a C&D win last time from Imperial Merlin. Rarely runs two alike but has a fine course record and stays well. Proven course performer, risk/reward profile.



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Main Dangers:

POUNDING POET (144 TFR) – Looked on the way back before never landing a blow behind Saint Bibiana latest. Needs more pace to feature and has looked short of finishing effort since his breathing issues. Talented but vulnerable late.

PARTY BUSINESS (147 TFR) – Rated highest on raw TFR but is a hostage to pace and seems to need a strongly run race. Was well held despite being odds-on in a 3-runner race last time. Talented but style not suited to today’s shape.



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Others:

JAYTEE (143 TFR) – Regressive and hasn’t shown a spark in two runs since a lengthy layoff. Unconvincing return.

WBEE (144 TFR) – Poor recent form and not obviously poised for a revival. On a steep downturn.



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Runner Scores and Suitability

Keel Strand: 8.5/10 – Unexposed, well-placed tactically, progressive.

Saint Bibiana: 8/10 – Thriving mare, ideal setup again.

Earth King: 7/10 – Strong recent form, consistency a slight issue.

Pounding Poet: 6.5/10 – Needs pace boost to feature.

Party Business: 6/10 – May lack tactical edge if pace is even.

Jaytee: 4/10 – Hard to fancy on current form.

Wbee: 3.5/10 – Lost form; profile unconvincing.


Advice: “Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.”


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Each-Way Angles (6 runners)

Not applicable – fewer than 8 runners.


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Private Tissue Estimate

Keel Strand – 9/4

Saint Bibiana – 3/1

Earth King – 5/1

Pounding Poet – 13/2

Party Business – 8/1

Jaytee – 20/1

Wbee – 25/1


Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.


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Summary & Smart Play

This looks a race that will be won by a tactically prominent and progressive type. Keel Strand is improving rapidly and will be hard to peg back under Cobden. Saint Bibiana is the biggest threat, especially with her record here, but Keel Strand may still have more to offer.


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Smart Play

Win Bet: KEEL STRAND (progressive profile, tactically ideal, strong finisher)

No each-way bet recommended (6 runners)



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