Pace Angles + Draw Angles:
This looks like a weakly-run race with no clear front-runner, though Born Ruler and Bint Al Karama possess early pace. Prominent tactics are typically favoured over this trip at Ayr, which could place hold-up types at a tactical disadvantage unless they possess a decisive turn of foot.

Strongest Contenders:

• CROWN OF OAKS (Promising): Makes handicap debut after being gelded and retains potential from his highly encouraging maiden form. Short of room when well backed at Newbury and shaped as if ahead of his mark. Likely better than 79, and yard excels with this profile. Suited by trip and ground. A major player.
• HORNSEA BAY (Progressive): Unlucky last time at Doncaster (no run late) and still lightly raced. Travelled well behind a steady pace and figures suggest he’s holding his form. Track, trip and going look ideal. Could bounce back in a race lacking pace if ridden more positively.
• BORN RULER (Proven): Last year’s winner at the course. Tends to be slowly away but stays well and drops in class after respectable efforts in stronger company. Blinkers back on. Trainer in strong form and yard excels with staying types over this course.

Main Dangers:

• JUJUBELLA (Proven): Relishes good ground, winner three times this season, including over this trip. Handles various types of races well, but a weak pace might not help and this represents a rise in class.
• AUSTRIAN THEORY (Proven): Back into Class 4 after strong run in the John Smith’s Cup. Holds a class edge if able to reproduce that, though tactically may not be best suited by weak pace and is a risky proposition from off the pace.

Interesting Outsider:

• TEE AITCH AYE (Promising): Should be suited by the step up in trip and continues to shape better than the bare result. Could go well if positioned more forward.

Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis:

• CROWN OF OAKS: 9/10 – Ideal profile for today’s conditions; highly suited.
• HORNSEA BAY: 8/10 – Versatile and unlucky last time; good fit tactically.
• BORN RULER: 8/10 – Back in calmer waters; course winner; needs pace collapse.
• JUJUBELLA: 7/10 – Game and consistent; possibly vulnerable at this level.
• AUSTRIAN THEORY: 7/10 – Classy form, but holds-up style a concern.
• TEE AITCH AYE: 6/10 – Up in trip; potential for further improvement.
• SURE AND STEDFAST: 5/10 – Course winner but may be tapped for class.
• GLASSES UP: 5/10 – Track specialist but out of form; needs revival.
• BINT AL KARAMA: 3/10 – Recent run very weak; unlikely stayer.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days. Watch out for in-form runners returning quickly – Sure and Stedfast fits that angle.

Each-Way Angles:
With 9 runners, each-way plays are in scope. Hornsea Bay and Tee Aitch Aye appeal most as solid place chances at current prices.

Private Tissue Estimate:

• Crown of Oaks – 3/1
• Hornsea Bay – 5/1
• Born Ruler – 6/1
• Austrian Theory – 13/2
• Jujubella – 7/1
• Tee Aitch Aye – 10/1
• Sure and Stedfast – 14/1
• Glasses Up – 20/1
• Bint Al Karama – 40/1

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start (Crown of Oaks, post-gelding).

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Summary:
This looks a muddling race likely to favour tactically adaptable or forward-going types. Crown of Oaks stands out on profile – a well-bred, lightly-raced improver switching to handicaps – and should take beating if ridden forward. Hornsea Bay is a danger if granted racing room, while Born Ruler could strike late if the pace collapses.

Smart Play:

• Win: CROWN OF OAKS – Well-treated on maiden form, strong yard angle.
• Each-Way Saver: HORNSEA BAY – Forgive last run, tactically well placed.