Pace Angles + Draw Angles:
A strongly-run race is forecast here, and soft ground is expected. Front-runners are usually favoured over this trip at Yarmouth, but the projected strong pace may compromise those on or near the lead. Sunset in Paris and Tilsworth Silver are among those who may go forward. Naughty Niall and Sense of Reason, both more patiently ridden, could be ideally placed off a contested gallop. There’s no significant draw bias to consider.

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Strongest Contenders + Main Dangers + Interesting Outsiders:

• NAUGHTY NIALL – Proven & consistent. Solid efforts in his last three starts and just touched off here 19 days ago. Handles soft ground and shapes like this test suits ideally. Free-going style needs managing, but strong pace here is ideal. Well drawn to settle and pounce late. Rider booking (De Sousa) signals intent.
• ZAFAAN – Proven, with a course win last month and another honest effort at Bath over further. This return to 10f looks a plus. Tends to race prominently, so the pace mustn’t collapse, but he’s been finishing his races better of late. Handles varying ground.
• SENSE OF REASON – Promising type with a nice effort at Ffos Las latest. Shaped as if more to come from current mark and showed he handles ease underfoot. Hold-up type whose run style is suited here. Big galloping ground like Yarmouth may help him lengthen. One to monitor closely.
• TWILIGHT GUEST – Proven but possibly peaking. Won three of his last five but shaped a bit flat last time out. May be vulnerable to fresher or unexposed rivals off revised mark in strongly-run scenario. Still dangerous if able to conserve energy early.
• KNIGHT OF MAGIC – Interesting Outsider. Showed signs of life here last time despite market coldness. Now starts for James Owen (trainer uplift angle noted, 20% strike rate 10f+). First run since wind op for new yard; market signals will be key. Risky but intriguing.

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Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis:

• Naughty Niall: 8/10 – Ideally suited by pace and trip; acts on soft. Solid recent form.
• Sense of Reason: 8/10 – Well-handicapped with upside; profile fits today’s setup.
• Zafaan: 7/10 – Genuine type in good heart; course winner; slight stamina concerns on very soft.
• Twilight Guest: 6/10 – Reliable but possibly exposed; needs things to fall right.
• Knight of Magic: 6/10 – New yard angle; watch the market. Will need improvement.
• Sunset in Paris: 5/10 – Front-running style against the grain of race shape.
• Jazz Scene: 5/10 – Needs a form revival; not obviously well-handicapped.
• Muhib: 4/10 – Moderate profile, poor last run; best watched.
• Pending Appeal: 3/10 – Out of form; needs big turnaround.
• Tilsworth Silver: 2/10 – Outclassed on known evidence; no appeal.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.

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Each-Way Angles (10 runners):

• Knight of Magic (6/1): Each-way angle if support arrives, especially with the new yard switch.
• Sense of Reason (9/2): Still unexposed in handicaps; shaped with more to come.

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Private Tissue Estimate:

• Naughty Niall – 3/1
• Sense of Reason – 4/1
• Zafaan – 5/1
• Twilight Guest – 6/1
• Knight of Magic – 7/1
• Jazz Scene – 14/1
• Sunset in Paris – 16/1
• Muhib – 18/1
• Pending Appeal – 25/1
• Tilsworth Silver – 66/1

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.

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Summary + Professional Punter View (Smart Play):

This 0-60 event looks like it will be run at a strong tempo on soft ground, which favours hold-up types with stamina. Naughty Niall is hard to fault and brings proven, recent form at the track. Sense of Reason appeals as a lightly-raced type who could improve again off a modest mark. Knight of Magic is a market-check horse with profile interest on stable switch.

Smart Play:

• Win Bet: Naughty Niall – profile, form and pace dynamics ideal.
• Each-Way Saver: Sense of Reason – progressive and well-suited tactically.