Pace and Tactical Angles:

Pace Forecast: Very Weak. No out-and-out front runner declared; race may develop into a sprint off a steady gallop.

Tactical Note: With a likely tactical crawl early, prominent racers hold a major advantage. Bosh (if confirmed runner) and Ventura Express can take up handy positions, while Elegant Erin, Spirit of Applause, and Fuji Mountain may be disadvantaged by hold-up tactics.



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Contenders and Tactical Fit

Strongest Contenders:

VENTURA EXPRESS (92 TFR) – Very solid performer at this C&D (4-time winner), arguably unlucky last time out at Beverley when denied a run before staying on strongly. Return to a stiffer 5f on a speed-favouring course plays to strengths. Proven and well-suited.

ELEGANT ERIN (91 TFR) – Reliable mare who’s been second three times this term. Undone by race position at Newcastle and has strong form for the level. Not tactically ideal here but may be able to pick off weaker rivals late. Proven and consistent.



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Main Dangers:

BRUMMELL (88 TFR) – Poor last run at Hamilton but valid excuses (trip/ground). Prior effort fair and his April win here shows suitability. May go forward if asked, which would help. Proven but inconsistent.

SPIRIT OF APPLAUSE (87 TFR) – Has ability but often slowly away and finds trouble in small fields. More effective in stronger-run races; will need things to fall right. Occasionally unlucky.



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Interesting Outsiders:

FUJI MOUNTAIN (88 TFR) – 3yo with previous sharp 5f form but recent runs have been poor. May be feeling the pinch in deeper company. Needs revival.

THE ACTOR (82+ TFR) – Gelded and first-time visor. Still lightly raced but signs not encouraging on recent efforts. Trainer angle only.



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Runner Scores and Suitability

Ventura Express: 8.5/10 – Strong C&D record, unlucky latest, tactically ideal.

Elegant Erin: 7.5/10 – Dependable, very solid form but hold-up style not ideal today.

Brummell: 7/10 – Can bounce back if forcing pace; form valid in context.

Spirit of Applause: 6/10 – On a workable mark but needs better pace profile.

The Actor: 5/10 – Change of yard/headgear but little to go on form-wise.

Fuji Mountain: 4.5/10 – Below form this season, risky at current level.


Advice: “Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.”
Also: “Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.”


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Each-Way Angles (6 runners)

No each-way angle provided due to under 8 runners.


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Private Tissue Estimate

Ventura Express – 11/4

Elegant Erin – 3/1

Brummell – 9/2

Spirit of Applause – 6/1

The Actor – 10/1

Fuji Mountain – 14/1



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Summary and Smart Play

This is a small-field tactical sprint where positioning will be everything. Ventura Express has the best blend of current form, track suitability, and tactical position. Elegant Erin is reliable but may not get the setup needed to deploy her finish.


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Smart Play

Win Bet: VENTURA EXPRESS – Excellent course record, unlucky latest, prime tactical position.



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