Pace and Tactical Angles:

Pace Forecast: Even. A few natural pressers but unlikely to boil over.

Draw Note: No draw bias indicated; however, racing prominently is generally advantageous at this 6f track. Likely leaders include Lady Bouquet, Sharp Call, and possibly Filey Beach.

Tactical Insight: This should favour prominent-to-tracking types rather than deep closers or horses with no early tactical speed.



—

Contenders and Tactical Fit

Strongest Contenders:

GIS A SUB (67 TFR) – Best run this season when second to Roundhay Park at Ripon (form looks strong; clear of third). Versatile with ground and distance. Profile of a “go day” contender (headgear off, back to form, quick return). Proven and well-handicapped.

DESERT BEAUTY (65 TFR) – 3yo filly, unexposed and progressing. Latest win at Leicester (7f) was a career-best. Drops back to 6f but showed enough pace previously. Promising filly, improving profile.



—

Main Dangers:

LADY BOUQUET (66 TFR) – Inconsistent but returned to form with a 5f win at Catterick last time. Has tactical pace and good draw. A bit stretched at 6f when tried previously. Can dominate if pace is not contested.

SHARK TWO ONE (63 TFR) – Sturdy, experienced type. Recent Leicester win solid, placed at Carlisle in a strong amateur race after. Prefers stiffer tests and likely to be caught for speed late on. Reliable but may lack turn of foot.

FILEY BEACH (64 TFR) – Lightly raced since returning, shaped with promise at Thirsk (4th of 12). Front-runner type who may enjoy the run of the race. Trainer in form. Could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead.



—

Interesting Outsiders:

RAIN CAP (63 TFR) – Consistent recent form, but hasn’t won for a long time and often races keenly. Close up in several similar events this term. Place potential but difficult to win with.

BIBENDUM (63 TFR) – One-time promising type now struggling. On stable debut here for Julie Camacho, who may unlock something. Stable switch could rejuvenate.



—

Runner Scores and Suitability

Gis A Sub: 8.5/10 – Peaking now, well-handicapped, tactically solid.

Desert Beauty: 8/10 – Improving, drop in trip no major worry, interesting 3yo.

Lady Bouquet: 7.5/10 – Back in form, will try to lead, stamina a question late.

Shark Two One: 7/10 – Stays well, form solid, may be tapped for toe.

Filey Beach: 7/10 – Positive return, front-runner with claims, trainer hot.

Rain Cap: 6.5/10 – Consistent, but rarely gets head in front.

Bibendum: 6/10 – New yard a positive, needs quick improvement.

Golden Prosperity: 5/10 – One recent win, but unreliable and non-stayer.

Canaria Sun: 4.5/10 – Poor form, no signs of sharp progression.

Sporting Life: 4/10 – Return run poor, long layoff prior.

Flavius Titus: 3.5/10 – Well past peak, lacks early speed now.

Sharp Call: 3/10 – Turf form very poor, opposable.

Making Moves: NR


Advice: “Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.”
Also: “Watch out for in-form 3yos dropping in trip – they often hold latent pace.”


—

Each-Way Angles (12 runners)

Filey Beach and Rain Cap are the two to consider each-way at bigger prices, especially if support emerges pre-race.



—

Private Tissue Estimate

Gis A Sub – 10/3

Desert Beauty – 9/2

Lady Bouquet – 11/2

Shark Two One – 13/2

Filey Beach – 7/1

Rain Cap – 8/1

Bibendum – 12/1

Golden Prosperity – 16/1

Canaria Sun – 20/1

Sporting Life – 25/1

Flavius Titus – 28/1

Sharp Call – 40/1



—

Summary and Smart Play

A low-grade 6f sprint where tactical speed and recent form are key. Gis A Sub produced his best run for a long time at Ripon, and the conditions here are a near-perfect match. Desert Beauty is open to further improvement, while Filey Beach could go well at a price if granted an uncontested lead.


—

Smart Play

Win Bet: GIS A SUB – In peak form, strong recent figure, ideal setup.

Each-Way Saver: FILEY BEACH – Freshened up, positive recent run, likely pace angle.