13:20 Goodwood – Coral Chesterfield Cup Handicap (Class 2)
Race Conditions + Pace Angles + Draw Angles:
This is a Class 2 handicap over 1m 1f 197y on Good turf for horses aged 4yo+. The pace is forecast to be Very Strong. There is a Draw Bias that Favours Low draws. The specific pace hint suggests that horses racing towards the rear are usually the ones to focus on at this trip, and a strongly run race will aid CASTLE COVE (IRE) at the likely expense of SHADOW DANCE.
Runner Comments:
- MASOUN (FR): Useful handicapper with recent wins at Leopardstown and Curragh. Hot trainer. Has tactical versatility and could get a dream run from Stall 1.
- SAVVY VICTORY (IRE): Smart performer who won in late 2024 but is below form this year. Acts on various surfaces. Usually races towards the rear. Well drawn but out of form.
- JOLLY JACK TAR: Useful and unexposed, with a strong win on handicap debut at Chelmsford. Open to further improvement. The trainer/jockey combination is strong at Goodwood. Drawn ideally in 3 and could be well-positioned.
- SILAWI (IRE): Useful performer who won at Windsor in May but ran poorly last time. Unreliable; needs a career-best effort.
- ANCIENT ROME (USA): Useful performer who won this race in 2023. Has shaped better than results in recent runs. Course form is a positive, and he could bounce back from Stall 5.
- TONY MONTANA: Useful handicapper with wins in 2024 and runner-up finishes this season. Unsuited by a drop in trip last time. Prefers smaller fields.
- BOLSTER: Smart performer with multiple wins in 2024. Failed to stay last time. His forward-going style is a concern with the very strong pace forecast, and he may be at the ceiling of his mark.
- WESTRIDGE (FR): Useful handicapper with a recent win at Windsor. Had a good second last time. Has a high head carriage. Won a weak race, and this is a stiff ask.
- SEE HECTOR (GER): Smart performer, placed in Dubai, but appears to have lost form recently.
- SIMPLY SONDHEIM (IRE): Useful handicapper who won in 2024 but probably needed his last run. Looks regressive, and the trip might be too sharp. Usually held up.
- NAQEEB (IRE): Smart handicapper who consistently runs well in top handicaps. Needed a stronger gallop last time and gets an ideal scenario today, though not entirely straightforward.
- GREY CUBAN: Smart handicapper who won strongly at Chester last time, making all. Might be vulnerable to closers today off a career-high mark and strong early fractions.
- CASTLE COVE (IRE): Progressive horse who impressed with a clear win in a strong Chester handicap from a poor draw. Sectionals support his last run being better than it appears. Suited by the strong pace and his hold-up style. Surface, trip, and trainer profile are all positive.
- SHADOW DANCE: Smart handicapper who won at York in 2024 and improved with a third last time. Likely to be compromised by the strong pace forecast. Outpaced in similar setups.
- TAKE HEART (IRE): Useful handicapper who won this race in 2024 from the same mark. His last run is best excused as he was slowly away. Has gone backwards since last year’s win.
- SIR BUSKER (IRE): Smart handicapper who returned to form with a second at Sandown. Usually held up. Needs a strong pace and luck. Was beaten last time when trading at a quarter or less of his starting Betfair SP.
- DEFIANCE (IRE): Useful performer who shaped notably well on his belated comeback at Epsom. Open to plenty of improvement second up. His hold-up style suits the strong pace, despite a wide draw.
- ENGLISH OAK: Useful handicapper who shaped as though 10f could suit in his recent Hamilton second. Has a strong-finishing style, even from a wide draw.
Private Tissue Estimate:
- Castle Cove – 4/1
- Defiance – 6/1
- Jolly Jack Tar – 13/2
- Grey Cuban – 10/1
- Masoun – 11/1
- Naqeeb – 12/1
- Ancient Rome – 14/1
- English Oak – 16/1
- Tony Montana – 18/1
- Sir Busker – 18/1
- Bolster – 20/1+
- Shadow Dance – 20/1+
- Silawi – 20/1+
- Simply Sondheim – 20/1+
- Take Heart – 20/1+
- See Hector – 20/1+
- Savvy Victory – 20/1+
- Westridge – 20/1+
ChatGPT Smart Plays:
- Win Bet: Castle Cove – He is progressive, tactically suited by the very strong pace, and has shown strong sectionals.
- Each-Way Saver: Masoun – He is thriving, has an ideal draw (Stall 1), and offers tactical versatility that could be key in a strongly run race.
13:55 Goodwood – Coral Vintage Stakes (Group 2)
Race Conditions + Pace Angles:
This is a Group 2 race over 7f for two-year-olds on Good turf, with 10 runners. The pace is forecast to be Strong. There is no confirmed Draw Bias. The specific pace hint suggests that a strongly contested pace should not work against HUMIDITY in favour of ZAVATERI (IRE).
Runner Comments:
- LAUREATE CROWN (IRE): Had a promising start, winning at Ascot, and is expected to progress. Has speed but needs to settle, drawn to force the pace.
- DORSET (IRE): A promising and highly regarded colt from Aidan O’Brien with strong pedigree. Won a good maiden and shaped well in the Coventry Stakes. His first try at 7f could unlock further progress, and he is a “horse in focus”. Aidan O’Brien has a good strike rate in this type of race and with horses running between 7f and 10f.
- MORRIS DANCER (IRE): Showed fairly useful form, winning at Haydock, and is expected to keep improving. Has strong sectionals but is still raw. William Buick has a 21% strike rate at Goodwood.
- ANDAB (IRE): Useful form, winning a maiden and placing in Group races at 6f. Solid maiden winner, but may need more at this level.
- GHARMA SUTRA (IRE): Won a maiden at Ffos Las, expected to progress over 7f+. However, it was a weak race, and this is a big jump in class.
- ZAVATERI (IRE): Showed much improved form winning the July Stakes at Newmarket, relishing a strong pace. His travelling suggests 7f will suit, and he has tactical versatility. Expected to progress further.
- DO OR DO NOT (IRE): Consistent with solid Group 2 placings at Ascot and Newmarket. Handles strong pace well but might be vulnerable to improvers.
- VINCENZO PERUGGIA (IRE): Had an impressive maiden win at Beverley over 7.4f, showing a good turn of foot. Up in grade, but has a stamina edge and is considered a live outsider.
- GOODWOOD GALAXY: Won a maiden at Salisbury by dictating the pace. However, his race form is weak and untested at this level.
- HUMIDITY: Proven and progressive dual winner, including the Listed Chesham at Royal Ascot over 7f, where he made all. His Timefigure and sectional profile suggest efficiency and stamina. He is the clear form pick.
Private Tissue Estimate:
- Humidity – 3/1
- Zavateri – 7/2
- Dorset – 9/2
- Do Or Do Not – 11/2
- Vincenzo Peruggia – 12/1
- Laureate Crown – 14/1
- Andab – 16/1
- Gharma Sutra – 20/1+
- Goodwood Galaxy – 20/1+
- Morris Dancer – 20/1+
ChatGPT Smart Plays:
- Win Bet: Humidity – He is the form standout and the tactical match for this race is ideal for him.
- Each-Way Saver: Vincenzo Peruggia – He is offered at a big price for a horse open to significant improvement over this trip.
14:30 Goodwood – HKJC World Pool Lennox Stakes (Group 2)
Race Conditions + Pace Angles:
This Group 2 contest over 7f features 3yo+ horses on Good turf, with 12 runners. The pace is forecast to be Strong, with prominent racers like Audience, Quinault, and Lake Forest expected to force the issue. There is no confirmed Draw Bias. The specific pace hint notes that hold-up horses are not generally dominant here, and even with a strong pace, AUDIENCE should not be vulnerable to LAKE FOREST.
Runner Comments:
- ALYANAABI (IRE): Smart performer who won a listed race in May and will be suited by a return to 7f. His best form is at Listed level. Owen Burrows has a good profit when having one runner at a flat meeting.
- AUDIENCE: Very smart performer who won this race last year and the Lockinge Stakes. Has disappointed since (temperament issues), but returns to his ideal track/trip. A live danger if he breaks cleanly.
- IBERIAN (IRE): Smart performer who won in 2024 and placed in a listed race. Respectable fifth in a Group 1 last time. Capable on his best form but hasn’t shown it this year.
- KINROSS: Very smart performer who has won this race in both 2023 and 2021. Returned with a huge performance, narrowly denied in the John of Gaunt Stakes, and is suited by the pace, track, and ground. He is clearly the one to beat. Ralph Beckett has a good record in this race.
- LAKE FOREST: Smart performer who won the Golden Eagle in 2024. Looked flat last time but has tactical speed and strong form in Australia and Britain, so could bounce back. He normally races off the pace, and his record of winning when trading higher than his Betfair SP is significant.
- NOSTRUM: Smart performer at best, but has failed to beat a rival in his starts this year. He is unpredictable and has lost his way.
- QUINAULT (GER): Smart performer who rediscovered form to win the Criterion Stakes at York last time. Faces deeper rivals here but is not ruled out given his career-high last time.
- TEN BOB TONY (IRE): Smart performer who won the John of Gaunt Stakes last time. May struggle to get an easy lead today but remains a likeable type effective at 7f. William Buick has a 21% strike rate at Goodwood.
- WITNESS STAND: Smart performer and a course specialist, winning a handicap at Goodwood in 2024. Back to form with a second last time at Chester. Considered a minor money hope. Loves Goodwood and has a strong late kick, making him an each-way angle.
- INTRUSIVELY: Useful performer who won a maiden in 2024. Not considered to be of this grade.
- JONQUIL: Smart and progressive 3yo, runner-up in the French 2000 Guineas and an authoritative Greenham winner. His latest effort at Ascot (drop to 6f) can be forgiven. His 7f form is high-grade, and his style should cope with the pace.
- NOBLE CHAMPION (IRE): Smart performer who made a huge leap forward winning the Jersey Stakes by over three lengths. His sectionals suggest he’s genuine, and his tactical versatility is a plus. This race is his acid test.
Private Tissue Estimate:
- Kinross – 3/1
- Jonquil – 9/2
- Audience – 5/1
- Noble Champion – 6/1
- Ten Bob Tony – 8/1
- Lake Forest – 10/1
- Quinault – 14/1
- Witness Stand – 16/1
- Alyanaabi (IRE) – 20/1+
- Iberian (IRE) – 20/1+
- Intrusively – 20/1+
- Nostrum – 20/1+
ChatGPT Smart Plays:
- Win Bet: Kinross – He is a class act, this race is a peak target for him, and he is tactically suited.
- Each-Way Saver: Witness Stand – He loves this track and is drawn to stalk the strong pace.
15:05 Goodwood – Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup Stakes (Group 1)
Race Conditions + Pace Angles + Draw Angles:
This Group 1 race over 2 miles features 3yo+ horses on Good turf, with 8 runners. The pace is forecast to be Weak, with no clear front-runner. This tactical setup may compromise deep closers and favour prominent runners, notably ILLINOIS (IRE). There is no relevant Draw Bias for this trip and field size.
Runner Comments:
- DUBAI FUTURE: Smart performer with wins in Nad Al Sheba Trophy and Dubai Gold Cup, but the weak pace won’t help him, and he prefers Meydan.
- FRENCH MASTER (IRE): A smart and progressive stayer, having powered home to win a competitive Copper Horse Handicap at Royal Ascot. Blinkers have focused him, and he is clearly improving fast, flagged as a “horse in focus”. He may lack tactical speed in this setup but has significant upside. His finishing effort at Ascot was visually impressive.
- ILLINOIS (IRE): A very smart and proven top-class stayer, Group 1 winner at 14.5f and excellent second in the Gold Cup over 2½m. He should relish the return to 2m, especially in a tactical race, as his prominent racing style is an asset here. He is tactically astute and has been running against the best. Aidan O’Brien has a strong recent record in this race.
- MILITARY ACADEMY: Smart performer who ran well in a listed contest last time. He is fairly reliable and versatile. He will go forward and could benefit most from a dawdle if allowed an easy lead, potentially sneaking into the frame. William Buick has a 21% strike rate at Goodwood.
- SUNWAY (FR): Smart performer who placed in Irish Derby and St Leger. May benefit from returning to further than 1½m. His stamina is questionable, and he needs more depth in this race.
- SWEET WILLIAM (IRE): Very smart and proven Group 2 stayer, Doncaster Cup winner. Stamina is guaranteed, but he needs a strong gallop to be seen at his best, and today’s weak pace is a negative. He is often slowly away.
- TRUESHAN (FR): A former star stayer, but he has lost his tactical edge and is vulnerable to younger legs. He needs testing ground and/or a strong pace, which he will not get here. His slow starts are also a disadvantage.
- SCANDINAVIA (USA): A smart, promising, and rapidly improving colt who dominated the Bahrain Trophy by 8½ lengths. He is well-made and powerful, expected to relish the step up to 2m, and receives a key weight-for-age allowance. He could dominate a race lacking pace if allowed to stride forward early. Keep an eye on the market for support.
Private Tissue Estimate:
- Illinois – 7/4
- Scandinavia – 3/1
- French Master – 5/1
- Sweet William – 8/1
- Military Academy – 12/1
- Sunway – 16/1
- Trueshan – 20/1
- Dubai Future – 25/1
ChatGPT Smart Plays:
- Win Bet: Illinois – He is tactically sharp, a class act, and the ideal scenario for him. He shows outstanding consistency, tactical sharpness, and strong form in elite staying races.
- Each-Way Saver: French Master – He is peaking at the right time for this Group 1 test, and the blinkers have transformed him.
15:45 Goodwood – Coral Golden Rewards Shaker Handicap (Class 2)
Race Conditions + Pace Angles + Draw Angles:
This is a Class 2 handicap sprint over 5f on Good turf, with a large field of 22 runners. The pace is forecast to be Extreme, with multiple fast starters guaranteeing a blistering tempo. There is a Draw Bias that Favours Low to Middle draws, with the rail appearing quick. High draws may face traffic. The extreme pace will likely disadvantage BRAZEN BOLT while benefitting DREAM COMPOSER (FR).
Runner Comments:
- SHAGRAAN (IRE): Useful and consistent performer in top 5f handicaps. His draw is fine, and he can be ridden more patiently, which suits the likely race shape.
- ENCHANTING: Useful course specialist who won at Goodwood on return but was too free and below form last time. Raced only at 5f.
- MISS ATTITUDE: Useful performer with a career-best second last time at York. A hold-up filly who can weave through messy races, making her dangerous if gaps appear late. Her profile fits a cavalry charge scenario, making her an each-way angle.
- DEMOCRACY DILEMMA (IRE): Useful performer best at 5f, but has been well below form recently. A free-going front-runner.
- REDORANGE: A smart and progressive handicapper who has shaped very well from unfavourable draws at Ascot. Thriving in hot 5f handicaps with outstanding finishing splits. He is still on the up and is the favorite of the report. Rossa Ryan has a 37% strike rate on favourites.
- JAKAJARO (IRE): Useful performer who was unlucky not to finish closer last time and could emerge as a main danger.
- TWILIGHT JET (IRE): Useful performer who had a creditable second last time. Has form at 7f but races over shorter.
- REGAL ENVOY (IRE): Useful handicapper with multiple wins this season, but was well below form last time. Usually races prominently. William Buick has a 21% strike rate at Goodwood.
- ROSARIO (IRE): Useful handicapper who won at Goodwood in May but has been down the field in his last three starts. Often starts slowly.
- ADRESTIA: Useful and unexposed filly who won at Royal Ascot and had a strong finishing fourth last time. She is a late kicker, and the pace collapse is likely to help her. Profiles as a future Listed-level sprinter.
- NIMITZ (SWE): Useful handicapper who has won all three starts this season. A front-runner drawn low; if he gets loose on the lead, he is dangerous, and his trainer rarely misses with sprinters.
- DREAM COMPOSER (FR): Useful handicapper who has shown good form recently, including a second at Pontefract. He is proven at this level and has handled cavalry charges before. He would benefit from restraint, as he has raced too close to the pace recently.
- PADDY’S DAY (IRE): Useful handicapper with multiple wins this season, but was not ideally drawn last time. Usually races close up.
- ZIGGY’S MISSILE (IRE): Useful handicapper who won in April but was slowly away and well held last time. Usually races prominently.
- CANON’S HOUSE: Fairly useful handicapper with multiple wins in May/June. Was below form last time after going off too hard. Speedy and drawn low, he could bag the rail and cling on for a place if chaos unfolds behind.
- MON NA SLIEVE (IRE): Fairly useful handicapper with wins in April and June. His last run is best excused (reared at stalls). Usually leads nowadays.
- ROCKING ENDS: Fairly useful handicapper who won at Newmarket last time. Best at 5f.
- BRAZEN BOLT: Fairly useful handicapper who won at York last time. He is a known front-runner and will likely be disadvantaged by the very strong pace forecast.
- REIGNING PROFIT (IRE): Fairly useful handicapper who was well drawn and back to his best with a second last time. Was beaten last time when trading at a quarter or less of his starting Betfair SP.
- NOGO’S DREAM: Fairly useful handicapper with wins in April, May, and June, but was below form last time. Not always the most resolute.
- FAUSTUS: Fairly useful handicapper who returned to form by winning last time, making all. A front-runner.
- WHEELS OF FIRE (IRE): Fairly useful handicapper who looked unlucky not to win last time, having been hampered. A “horse in focus” and “horse for course”.
Private Tissue Estimate:
- Redorange – 9/2
- Adrestia – 6/1
- Dream Composer – 7/1
- Shagraan – 8/1
- Miss Attitude – 10/1
- Canon’s House – 14/1
- Nimitz – 16/1
- Brazen Bolt – 20/1+
- Democracy Dilemma (IRE) – 20/1+
- Enchanting – 20/1+
- Faustus – 20/1+
- Jakajaro (IRE) – 20/1+
- Mon Na Sliev (IRE) – 20/1+
- Nogo’s Dream – 20/1+
- Paddy’s Day (IRE) – 20/1+
- Regal Envoy (IRE) – 20/1+
- Reigning Profit (IRE) – 20/1+
- Rocking Ends – 20/1+
- Rosario (IRE) – 20/1+
- Twilight Jet (IRE) – 20/1+
- Wheels Of Fire (IRE) – 20/1+
- Ziggy’s Missile (IRE) – 20/1+
ChatGPT Smart Plays:
- Win Bet: Redorange – He is coming into peak form, is a strong closer, and has an ideal setup for this race.
- Each-Way Saver: Canon’s House – He could hold on for a place if his rail advantage proves decisive in the extreme pace scenario.
16:20 Goodwood – British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes (Class 2)
Race Conditions + Pace Angles + Draw Angles:
This is a Class 2 Maiden Stakes over 6f for two-year-olds on Good turf, with 17 runners. The pace is forecast to be Strong. There is a Draw Bias Against Low draws. The specific pace hint suggests that the strong pace should not downgrade expectations for ANASHHAD (IRE) instead of NAVAL LIGHT, as prominent racers usually have the best of it here.
Runner Comments:
- RECEDING (IRE): No form yet. Yard rarely fires first time with ordinary pedigree.
- STAR OF ALBION: No form yet. A debutant with a sprinter’s pedigree, but on a tough track. Amanda Perrett has a profit when having one runner at a flat meeting.
- LEGACY ROCK (IRE): Showed fair form, but lacked spark on debut.
- MY CHAMPION: No form yet, an unknown quantity debuting in a deep field.
- HIGH APPROVAL (IRE): Showed promising form with two runner-up finishes. He remains with potential, but his slightly awkward style and tongue tie debut suggest minor quirks. He could get caught if the pace is too hot.
- ANASHHAD (IRE): Showed excellent sectionals despite finishing fifth last time and is expected to be suited by 7f in the long term. His wide, flat galloping style means Goodwood might test his balance. He is an each-way angle given his Ascot form and strong closing ability. Roger Varian is a hot trainer.
- VINTAGE HEAT: No form yet. Likely to contest the pace but unsure to stay. Richard Hannon has 2 winners in the past 10 runnings.
- WARNING SYMBOL (IRE): Shaped well on debut, looking like a horse that needed the experience. He is expected to improve and is considered a scopey type. James Owen is a hot trainer with a good profit when having one runner.
- RIVER SPEY: Her form is ordinary, and she needs to step up. Ed Walker is a hot trainer.
- NAVAL LIGHT: Made a very promising start on debut at Beverley and, despite being green in the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes, remains capable of better. Strong figures suggest more to come, and Karl Burke’s juveniles progress with racing. He is given the vote by the analyst and is considered the win bet due to his experience and perfect setup. Karl Burke is a hot trainer.
- YACHTSMAN: Still green last time, and the track/trip may stretch him. John & Thady Gosden are hot trainers.
- STELLAR SUNRISE: Showed fair form and was still green last time but kept on well. Sectionals suggest he is learning quickly, and a better draw and track may suit him. He is an improver not to ignore and an each-way angle.
- CLIPPER (IRE): No form yet. Likely to be a slow starter, and a wide draw is not ideal.
- BAYRAQ ALMUHAMADIA: A debutant with no form yet; watching brief is advised.
- YORKSHIRE PUDS (IRE): Showed some encouragement on debut, finishing third despite being green. Expected to improve and is tactically versatile, well-drawn in 15.
- ENRICHER (IRE): Showed a better effort last time, travelling well, and is the type to improve.
- MANLY FIREBALL (IRE): No form yet. Has a good draw and is well-related, but needs to settle.
Private Tissue Estimate:
- Naval Light – 5/2
- High Approval – 5/1
- Anashhad – 6/1
- Yorkshire Puds – 10/1
- Stellar Sunrise – 11/1
- Warning Symbol – 14/1
- Bayraq Almuhamadia – 20/1+
- Clipper – 20/1+
- Enricher – 20/1+
- Legacy Rock – 20/1+
- Manly Fireball – 20/1+
- My Champion – 20/1+
- Receding – 20/1+
- River Spey – 20/1+
- Star Of Albion – 20/1+
- Vintage Heat – 20/1+
- Yachtsman – 20/1+
ChatGPT Smart Plays:
- Win Bet: Naval Light – He is G2-experienced, and the strong pace forecast provides a perfect setup for his closing style.
- Each-Way Saver: Anashhad – He showed solid form at Ascot and is a strong closer with definite upside.
16:55 Goodwood – Ridgeview Fillies’ Handicap (Class 3)
Race Conditions + Pace Angles + Draw Angles:
This is a Class 3 fillies’ handicap over 1 mile on Good turf, with 13 runners. The pace is forecast to be Strong. While prominent racers normally fare well at this track, today’s likely strong pace could set it up for mid-division types with stamina. There is no prevailing Draw Bias.
Runner Comments:
- TUNDRA ROSE (IRE): Useful form, but is regressing slightly, and her seasonal return lacked spark.
- MY MARGIE (IRE): Fairly useful handicapper, but her best form is on all-weather and hasn’t translated to turf recently.
- QUEEN OF ATLANTIS: A well-handicapped filly who showed an excellent return run at Ascot. She tends to trade high and finish strongly. If she settles early, she could come through late, making her a “hold-up risk but dangerous” each-way angle.
- MAHRA’S LOVE (IRE): A progressive and top-notch filly seeking a hat-trick after two stylish all-the-way wins. She is highly effective at Goodwood on fast gallops and thrives up front, capable of controlling the pace. The trainer, William Haggas, has an excellent strike rate with fillies over 7-10f and a good record in this race. She is tactically versatile enough to pounce again.
- ATLANTIS BLUE: Fairly useful handicapper whose form is decent, but the trip may be too sharp for her with a pace collapse.
- BLESSED STAR (IRE): A fair maiden who showed a good second last time. She often races freely, so the current setup might not be ideal.
- RUMBA NUMBA: Showed fairly useful form in minor events and is considered a likely improver entering handicaps off a workable mark. Her hot trainer and potential to improve for tempo make her appealing. Roger Varian has a good strike rate with handicap debutants.
- ROCKYMOUNTAINWAY: Fairly useful handicapper who won in 2024 and had a second at Kempton. She is a soft finisher, and this track may not be ideal.
- DASH OF AZURE: A promising filly who finished a solid fifth in the Sandringham Handicap from a poor position, having to weave through traffic. She is a strong finisher, best suited by today’s strong pace, and is still unexposed at 1m. Ralph Beckett is a hot trainer.
- PROTEST: Lightly raced filly who ran creditably in Listed company. She may appreciate this more galloping layout, but is unproven in big fields and pace collapse scenarios. Roger Varian has a good strike rate with handicap debutants.
- BOUNTIFUL: Useful performer who was back to her best with a fourth last time. She flashed late in a stronger race but is unproven at a mile.
- ZAPPHIRE (IRE): A useful handicapper who was very unlucky not to win last time, conceding first run and showing strong late splits. The track should help offset her wide draw. She has the tools to take advantage if the leaders overdo it, making her an each-way play. She is a “horse in focus”.
- ZGHARTA (IRE): An improving filly who shaped very well at Royal Ascot when trapped wide in the Sandringham and will appreciate a smaller field. Despite a slight negative wide draw, she travels strongly and finds off the bridle. Andrew Balding is a hot trainer.
Private Tissue Estimate:
- Mahra’s Love – 7/2
- Dash of Azure – 9/2
- Zgharta – 5/1
- Zapphire – 8/1
- Protest – 9/1
- Queen of Atlantis – 10/1
- Rumba Numba – 10/1
- Blessed Star – 20/1+
- Bountiful – 20/1+
- Rockymountainway – 20/1+
- Tundra Rose – 20/1+
- Atlantis Blue – 20/1+
- My Margie – 20/1+
ChatGPT Smart Plays:
- Win Bet: Mahra’s Love – She is peaking at the right time, and both the pace and draw suit her run style.
- Each-Way Saver: Zapphire – She is ready to capitalize on her recent misfortune, provided the race sets up right.
17:30 Goodwood – World Pool Bet with The Tote EBF Fillies’ Handicap (Class 3)
Race Conditions + Pace Angles + Draw Angles:
This is a Class 3 fillies’ handicap over 6f on Good turf, with 14 runners. The pace is forecast to be Very Strong, with multiple forward types expected to force a hard gallop. This tactical setup suggests strong closers like UNDER THE TWILIGHT and DUBAI TREASURE (IRE) could benefit from an anticipated pace collapse. There is no definitive Draw Bias.
Runner Comments:
- MUSICAL ANGEL: Fairly useful performer who won a maiden but was well below form last time. Her form is limited to low-level maidens, making this a stiff ask.
- DUBAI TREASURE (IRE): A progressive and lightly raced filly who travelled like the winner in a big-field York handicap, suggesting the drop to 6f is suitable. She has strong sectionals and is a “horse in focus”. Saeed bin Suroor’s fillies often improve mid-summer. She is the Win Bet due to her form and ideal setup. Oisin Murphy has a 34% strike rate on favourites.
- WOODHAY WONDER: Useful handicapper and reliable front-runner, but faces pace pressure and comes off two modest Ascot efforts. Her better performances were at Newmarket.
- ENOLA HOLMES (IRE): Fairly useful performer whose form is regressive and not in good shape lately.
- SEA EMILY RUN: Fairly useful and progressive filly who narrowly won at Chester in a strongly run race. She has a course win and could dominate from a good draw (Stall 5). Tom Clover is a hot trainer.
- POWDERING (IRE): Fairly useful handicapper, but her form is tailing off, and she is exposed at this level. Michael Herrington is a hot trainer.
- SHALLOW: Fairly useful handicapper who won at Newmarket last time. She is in form and on an upward curve, but will need another career best to win here.
- EASY PEELER: Fairly useful handicapper who won at York in June. She is lightly raced but has a bit to prove at this level.
- GREYDREAMBELIEVER (IRE): Fairly useful performer who showed her best effort this season last time. She is better on all-weather and needs to step up on turf. Karl Burke is a hot trainer.
- CINQUE VERDE: Fairly useful handicapper who rarely runs a bad race. Her tactics will be tricky with the pace pressure, and she may get caught if overcommitted early.
- ARABIAN LEOPARD: Fairly useful handicapper who won at Newmarket in May and ran well with a second last time. She should be staying on, but her class rise is a concern. David Simcock is a hot trainer.
- HARVANNA: Fairly useful handicapper with consistent turf form and recent good performances at Chester/York. Her form is franked, she acts on sharp tracks, and likes decent ground. She has a big chance if settling from midfield with cover. Michael Appleby is a hot trainer and saddled the winner of this race 12 months ago.
- LADY OF ANDROS: Useful and unexposed performer who showed good runs in big fields and had a close third last time. She needs luck but fits this race well if there is a pace collapse. She is a hard finisher and well-handicapped if she gets cover, making her an each-way angle.
- UNDER THE TWILIGHT: Fairly useful handicapper who won last time, suited by how the race developed. She is a closer and strong finisher, and the very strong pace forecast will help her, despite an awkward draw (Stall 14). Her best efforts come with cover and pace to aim at. She is the Each-Way Saver pick due to her late closing profile.
Private Tissue Estimate:
- Dubai Treasure – 9/2
- Harvanna – 6/1
- Sea Emily Run – 13/2
- Under The Twilight – 10/1
- Lady of Andros – 10/1
- Cinque Verde – 11/1
- Woodhay Wonder – 12/1
- Shallow – 14/1
- Arabian Leopard – 20/1+
- Easy Peeler – 20/1+
- Enola Holmes – 20/1+
- Greydreambeliever – 20/1+
- Musical Angel – 20/1+
- Powdering – 20/1+
ChatGPT Smart Plays:
- Win Bet: Dubai Treasure – She travelled best at York and has an ideal setup here.
- Each-Way Saver: Under The Twilight – She is a profiled late closer, and the anticipated very strong pace scenario should suit her.
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