Qatar Sussex Stakes (Group 1) – 30th July 2025

Date of Race: Wednesday, 30th July 2025 (as per Timeform); 31st July 2025 (as per Goodwood RaceIQ URL) Location: Goodwood Racecourse Race Type: Group 1 Flat Race Distance: 1 mile Surface: Turf Going: Good Prize Money: £599,708 Runners: 7

1. Executive Summary: The Shock Upset and Peculiar Race Dynamics

The 2025 Qatar Sussex Stakes delivered one of the biggest upsets in British and Irish racing history, with Qirat, initially in the field as a pacemaker, winning at staggering odds of 150/1. This “perfect storm” for Qirat was largely attributed to the race’s highly unusual development, specifically the front-running tactics of the pacemakers and the long-odds-on favourite, Field Of Gold, “flopping” and being “patently unsuited to the demands of this track.”

Rosallion, despite clearly being “the best horse on the day,” was ultimately undone by the race dynamics, failing to peg back Qirat who had been “allowed too much rope.” The race outcome was deemed “muddling” for Group 1 standards, particularly affecting the performance assessment of other high-calibre horses like Henri Matisse and Field Of Gold.

2. Key Race Metrics & Performance Analysis (Goodwood RaceIQ Data)

The RaceIQ data provides crucial insights into individual horse performances beyond the finishing order:

• 0-20 MPH Acceleration (Early Speed Burst):
• Qirat demonstrated the “Best burst” with 2.40s, reinforcing its role and effectiveness as an early leader/pacemaker.
• Henri Matisse (2.51s), Field Of Gold (2.56s), and Rosallion (2.65s) showed good early acceleration, but were not able to overcome the tactical advantage of the front-runners.
• Docklands, despite its strong finishing ability, had a slower acceleration at 2.69s, placing it 6th in this metric.
• Stride Length:
• Docklands exhibited a “massive stride length” of 7.63m, the longest in the field, suggesting “strong finishing ability” and suitability for races with strong pace or stiff finishes. However, it was “never threatened to be anything more than a bit-part player” in this race due to the specific conditions.
• Qirat had a “mid-range stride” of 7.14m (7th highest), indicating that while it excelled in early speed, its sustained efficiency might be vulnerable in different race scenarios. Rosallion had a stride of 7.15m (4th).
• Finishing Speed & Top Speed:
• Rosallion recorded the highest Top Speed (42.45MPH) and Finishing Speed % (111.25%), further supporting the Timeform assessment that he “went like clearly the best horse on the day.” This highlights his late-race power despite the disadvantageous tactical setup.
• Qirat had the lowest Top Speed (40.65MPH) among the top finishers and a Finishing Speed % of 107.35% (6th), confirming that its win was less about sustained speed and more about its early lead being maintained due to race dynamics.
• Docklands, despite its long stride, had a Top Speed of 42.41MPH (3rd) and a Finishing Speed % of 109.98% (4th).
• Stride Frequency:
• Serengeti (the other pacemaker) had the highest average and maximum stride frequencies (2.43SPS Avg, 2.53SPS Max), aligning with its role to set a high early pace.
• Docklands had the lowest average and minimum stride frequencies (2.17SPS Avg, 2.11SPS Min), consistent with its longer stride covering more ground per step.

3. Horse-Specific Performance Insights & Future Outlook

• Qirat (1st, 150/1 SP):
• Race Commentary: “was in the field to set the race up for Field of Gold but caused a huge upset,” benefiting from being one of two pacemakers who “didn’t have to work hard to build up a big lead over the others.” Led early, then raced in second, holding a “around 10 lengths clear of everything else by halfway.”
• RaceIQ Synergy: Best 0-20 MPH Acceleration (2.40s) confirms explosive early speed. Mid-range stride (7.14m) and lower finishing speed (107.35%) suggest vulnerability if not allowed an uncontested lead.
• Future Outlook: “unlikely he needed to improve much given the highly unusual way this developed, and it almost goes without saying that he’ll find life tough from now with a penalty in all bar the top races.”
• Rosallion (2nd, 11/2 SP):
• Race Commentary: “failed by the narrowest of margins at Royal Ascot, but this defeat will probably be even more galling to connections, as with Field of Gold floundering on the track he went like clearly the best horse on the day but was simply undone by how things developed.” Was “well adrift of front pair by halfway,” but made “good headway over 1f out, kept on well final 1f, just failed to peg back one who was allowed too much rope.”
• RaceIQ Synergy: Highest Top Speed (42.45MPH) and Finishing Speed % (111.25%) strongly support the assessment of him being the “best horse on the day” in terms of raw ability and late power.
• Future Outlook: “almost certainly as good as ever and looks to hold leading claims of making amends in the now-Group 1 City of York Stakes at the Ebor Meeting next month, the return to the intermediate trip of 7f sure to be right up his street.”
• Henri Matisse (3rd, 11/2 SP):
• Race Commentary: “better judged on his St James’s Palace second, this bare form as muddling as it gets when it comes to Group 1s,” and “did give the impression he’d benefit from tackling a longer trip.” Dwelt at the start.
• RaceIQ Synergy: Balanced profile with 2nd best 0-20 MPH Acceleration (2.51s) and 6th best stride length (7.02m). Top Speed (42.38MPH) and Finishing Speed % (110.04%) were strong relative to the main group.
• Future Outlook: Implied potential for longer distances.
• Field Of Gold (4th, 1/3f SP):
• Race Commentary: “long-odds-on favourite flopping,” “clearly wasn’t suited either by how things developed or, more importantly, this idiosyncratic track.” Looked “all at sea on camber and hung right from that point.”
• RaceIQ Synergy: Decent 0-20 MPH Acceleration (2.56s, 3rd) and stride length (7.11m, 5th), but its performance was hampered by track suitability and race dynamics rather than inherent metrics.
• Future Outlook: “reverse does very little to diminish his potential to run to a higher figure still… when back on a more conventional track, his strength at the finish on all previous starts this year boding well for when he steps up to 1¼m, too.”
• Docklands (5th, 33/1 SP):
• Race Commentary: “had his day in the sun at Ascot, a better horse on that straight track than elsewhere,” and “never threatened to be anything more than a bit-part player” here. “Patiently ridden, driven 2f out, laboured headway over 1f out, never landed a blow.”
• RaceIQ Synergy: Longest Stride Length (7.63m) confirms “strong finishing ability” and “galloping type” profile. However, its slower 0-20 MPH Acceleration (2.69s) suggests it struggled to get into contention when the front two were so far clear.
• Future Outlook: Ideal for races with “strong pace or stiff finishes” and better suited to straight tracks.
• Serengeti (7th, 300/1 SP):
• Race Commentary: “acted as a pacemaker; slowly into stride, disputed lead after 2f and went on after 3f, drew clear with winner soon after but reduced advantage and ridden when hung right over 1f out, headed soon after, dropped away.”
• RaceIQ Synergy: Lowest 0-20 MPH Acceleration (2.90s) and lowest Top Speed (39.53MPH) and Finishing Speed % (103.10%) confirm its role as a dedicated, but ultimately fading, pacemaker. Also had the shortest average stride length (7.00m).

4. Tactical Implications & Race Anomalies

• Pacemaker Strategy: The race was significantly shaped by the presence of two pacemakers, Qirat and Serengeti. While Serengeti weakened, Qirat sustained its effort and benefited from the main group being “well adrift” by halfway, effectively creating an unassailable lead.
• Goodwood Track Characteristics: The “idiosyncratic track” at Goodwood played a significant role, particularly in Field Of Gold’s poor performance, as he “looked all at sea on camber and hung right.” Docklands also performs better on straight tracks.
• Unlucky Loser: Rosallion is widely considered the “unlucky loser,” demonstrating superior underlying metrics but unable to overcome the unique pace scenario.

5. Betting & Historical Significance

• Record-Breaking Upset: Qirat’s 150/1 SP makes it the “longest priced winner of such a race ever in Britain and Ireland,” joining a rare list of pacemakers to cause Group 1 shocks (e.g., Maroof, Summoner).
• Tote Payouts: Reflect the extreme upset: Win 151.00, Place 7.50, Exacta 464.70, Trifecta 1,517.00.

This briefing combines both qualitative race commentary and quantitative RaceIQ data to provide a comprehensive understanding of the 2025 Qatar Sussex Stakes, highlighting the unusual race dynamics that led to a historic upset and offering insights into the individual performances of the runners.