The GUINNESS 0.0 HANDICAP race on Thursday, 31st July 2025, at Galway, proved to be an insightful contest, especially when examining the performance of Astelia. This 6-year-old mare, ridden by C. D. Hayes and trained by Peter Fahey in Ireland, finished 6th, just a neck behind Positive Energy, hinting at untapped potential despite her 25/1 starting price. But does her run suggest she’s a horse to keep an eye on? Let’s delve into the details.

The Race Performance: More Than Just a Number

Astelia, carrying 9-13 with an Official Rating (OR) of 69, made her handicap debut in this 1m 4f race on turf with a Gd/Sft going. While a 6th-place finish might not immediately grab headlines, the Timeform analysis offers a compelling narrative: Astelia “matched previous form making handicap debut, not ideally placed as things went”.

The commentary further illustrates her race dynamics: she was “held up, still plenty to do home turn, headway early in straight, ran on, nearest at the finish”. The Tracker comment reinforces this, stating she was “Towards rear, ridden 2f out, stayed on into 8th 1f out, kept on one pace final furlong”. This suggests a horse that was perhaps too far back early on, having to make significant ground in the latter stages.

Deeper Dive: Unpacking the Sectional and Stride Data

To truly understand Astelia’s run, the advanced metrics are invaluable. Here’s what stands out:

• Top Speed: Astelia recorded the 1st fastest Top Speed in the race at an impressive 38.06MPH. This is a clear indicator of her raw ability to quicken and finish strongly.
• Stride Length: Her stride data is equally impressive, with an Avg Stride Length of 7.21M (2nd longest) and a Max Stride Length of 7.81M (2nd longest) among all runners. This highlights her efficient and powerful galloping action, allowing her to cover ground quickly once she got into full flow.
• Finishing Speed %: She also boasted the 3rd fastest Finishing Speed % at 98.40%, demonstrating her sustained effort right to the line, especially given her earlier positioning.
• 0-20MPH: While not the fastest out of the gates, her 0-20MPH time of 3.01S was still 6th fastest, indicating reasonable acceleration when asked.
• Sectional Times: Her sectional times, particularly in the later stages, show significant improvement in position. For instance, she was in 15th position at the 1f, 2f, 3f, 4f, 5f, 6f, 7f, and 9f markers, dropping to 17th at 8f, but then surged forward to be 12th at 10f, 8th at 11f, and ultimately 6th at 12f, indicating a powerful late run. Her total time for the race was 2 minutes, 42.84 seconds.

Is Astelia a Horse to Follow?

Considering the evidence, yes, Astelia certainly appears to be a horse to follow.

• Underlying Ability: Her top speed and impressive stride length metrics point to a horse with considerable natural talent.
• Race Dynamics: The key insight is that she was “not ideally placed”. This suggests that with a more favourable position during the race, or a more prominent early run, she could have finished even closer, or potentially challenged for a higher placing.
• Handicap Potential: Matching her previous form on her handicap debut is a positive sign. It indicates she is adjusting well to this competitive format and has room for improvement as her trainer, Peter Fahey, finds the right strategy and races for her.
• Strong Finish: The repeated mentions of “ran on” and “nearest at the finish” highlight her stamina and willingness to fight to the line.

Astelia (sired by SEA THE STARS (IRE) out of AGAPANTHA (USA)) demonstrated that she has the tools – speed, stride, and a strong finish – to be competitive. Her performance in the GUINNESS 0.0 HANDICAP, despite not being ideally positioned, suggests she has more to offer. Keep an eye on her next outing; with a clearer run and perhaps a slightly different race strategy, she could be a strong contender for a win.