3:40 Deauville – Prix Rothschild (Group 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) over 1m, straight, soft ground:

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Race Title and Conditions + Pace Angles + Draw Angles

3:40 Deauville – Prix Rothschild (Group 1), 1m, soft ground, straight track.

• Pace Scenario: Moderate to strong pace expected. Likely pace from Crimson Advocate, Start Of Day, and Matilda, all of whom have raced prominently.
• Draw Angles: On the Deauville straight mile, the draw is often neutral, especially on soft. However, mid-to-high draws have fared marginally better in soft ground fields of 12+.

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Strongest Contenders + Main Dangers + Interesting Outsiders + Trends/Timeform Comments

Strongest Contenders:

• January (Proven) – 127 RPR. Genuine G1 operator, runner-up in the Falmouth and third in the Coronation Stakes. Slight concern over softer ground (unproven), but her tactical speed and form stand out.
• Matilda (Progressive) – Impressive 6.5L winner in the German 1,000 Guineas (115 RPR). Trainer switch to F-H Graffard is significant, and her soft-ground win (21 Apr) adds confidence.
• Mandanaba (Promising) – 122 RPR. 3yo with Group 1 form against the older fillies is a plus; strong-finishing style could be suited if pace collapses late.

Main Dangers:

• Fallen Angel (Proven) – Close third to Crimson Advocate at Royal Ascot; softer ground a plus, and capable of turning the tables here.
• Crimson Advocate (Proven) – 127 peak RPR, won at Royal Ascot and third in Falmouth; yet to prove effectiveness on soft and all best form on firm.

Interesting Outsiders:

• Spiritual (Progressive) – Easy G3 winner at Epsom. Soft ground is an unknown but lightly raced with upside.
• Exactly (Promising) – Close up in Pouliches and good juvenile soft-ground form. Might be better than latest Ascot run suggests.
• Godspeed (Progressive) – G2 winner at Chantilly on soft; improving filly with a good turn of foot, likely to be played late.

Hold-Up Risk Types:

• Godspeed, Exactly, and Mandanaba all typically settle back and will require gaps and luck in running on this straight mile.

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Runner Scores and Suitability Analysis

• January: 9/10 – Proven at G1 level, soft ground unknown. Suited by race shape.
• Matilda: 9/10 – Soft ground winner, thriving, likely improver. Suited.
• Mandanaba: 8/10 – G1 class 3yo, stamina a plus. Needs race to collapse.
• Fallen Angel: 8/10 – Well suited to softer surface. Consistent.
• Crimson Advocate: 7/10 – Top form, ground doubt.
• Spiritual: 7/10 – In-form, but not tested at this level on this ground.
• Exactly: 7/10 – Held by January but could outrun odds on this surface.
• Godspeed: 7/10 – Improving, G2 form, but class rise.
• Atsila: 6/10 – Minor G3 winner, lacks depth of form.
• Pina Sonata: 6/10 – Unexposed, tough ask at this level.
• Start Of Day: 5/10 – Exposed, G2 ceiling.
• Pinta: 4/10 – Limited on figures.
• Riyabovka: 3/10 – Respectable but overmatched.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.

Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.

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Each-Way Angles

Each-way plays are available with 13 runners. Potential candidates:

• Exactly – Soft ground juvenile form, not far off Mandanaba.
• Godspeed – Recent G2 winner on soft; strong finishing type.

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Private Tissue Estimate

1. January – 3/1
2. Matilda – 7/2
3. Mandanaba – 6/1
4. Fallen Angel – 13/2
5. Crimson Advocate – 8/1
6. Spiritual – 10/1
7. Exactly – 12/1
8. Godspeed – 14/1
9. Atsila – 20/1
10. Start Of Day – 25/1
11. Pina Sonata – 33/1
12. Pinta – 66/1
13. Riyabovka – 100/1

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.

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Summary + Professional Punter View (Smart Play)

This renewal of the Prix Rothschild is highly competitive, featuring hard-knocking Group 1 fillies like January and rising stars like Matilda and Mandanaba. The expected strong pace could suit closers, but the draw and ground lean towards a grinder who handles soft and can sit handy.

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Smart Play

Win Selection: Matilda – Soft-ground proven, explosive in the German Guineas, and now with Graffard. Still unexposed.
Each-Way Saver: Exactly – Classy 2yo soft form and better than bare run at Ascot.