14:15 Ffos Las – Christine Bielby Memorial Handicap

Race Details: Class 4, 1m6f (2600m), for 4yo+ horses with a rating range of 0–80, run on Turf with Good going.

• Pace Angles: A strong gallop is forecast, primarily influenced by prominent racers like ARAZZO and HEDONISTA. This pace setup is expected to significantly favour held-up runners or those in midfield with strong finishing power, such as MIGHTY BANDIT and KINGDOM OF STARS. The specific pace hint notes that a strongly-run race will assist MIGHTY BANDIT. MAXIDENT is a non-runner.
• Draw Angles: There is no strong draw bias evident at this trip at Ffos Las, with run style and tactical positioning being more decisive.
• Runners & Pertinent Info:
  • ROAD TO WEMBLEY: A C&D winner who has been consistent. Despite a below-form run at York last time, he drops in grade and returns to an ideal trip where a held-up style can be beneficial. His sectionals at Sandown (Tfig 86, Adj 91) suggest he is still performing near his peak.
  • KINGDOM OF STARS (FR): Comes into this race following a win at Kempton. While his best form is on the All-Weather (AW), he has shown enough on turf to be effective here, and his racing style aligns with today’s likely strong pace. He carries a 5 lb penalty but appears to be still improving. (TFR 90).
  • MIGHTY BANDIT (IRE): Has produced solid efforts in stronger handicaps this season. His Goodwood run was better than it appears, and a return to a staying trip on a galloping track with a soft surface will suit. If he can reproduce his Leicester form (Adj 94?), he will be a major contender. (TFR 90).
  • PADESHA (FR): Often travels well but tends to find less than expected in the finish. He may not thrive in a strongly-run contest as much as others and rarely shapes like a horse that will outstay rivals. (TFR 89).
  • MELAKAZ (IRE): Was well beaten on his return from an 18-month absence but possesses significant historic stamina form. Market fluctuations will be crucial to gauge his readiness. (TFR 90?).
  • HEDONISTA (IRE): Is likely to be caught up in the early fast gallop. (TFR ?).
  • ARAZZO (IRE): Also likely to be impacted negatively by the strong early pace. (TFR 89).
• Estimated Tissue Odds (Pro Perspective): ROAD TO WEMBLEY: 5/2, KINGDOM OF STARS: 3/1, MIGHTY BANDIT: 4/1, PADESHA: 9/1, MELAKAZ: 12/1, Others: 16/1+.
• ChatGPT Smart Play:
  • Win: ROAD TO WEMBLEY – solid stayer, ideal setup, and a drop in class.
  • Each-Way Saver: MIGHTY BANDIT – his peak form would be more than sufficient in this grade.

15:30 Catterick – Hugh James Handicap

Race Details: Class 6, 1m7f189y (3190m), for 4yo+ horses with a rating range of 0–60, run on Turf with Good going.

• Pace Angles: A very weak pace is expected. HICCUPS and, to some extent, STAR OF JUPITER are identified as the only likely front-runners. This tactical scenario favours prominent racers or those capable of a sharp turn of foot off a slow gallop. BOLLIN NEIL is expected to benefit from a slowly-run race at the expense of STAR OF JUPITER.
• Draw Angles: Draw bias is not relevant for this race, with positioning and tactical pace being more crucial over this marathon trip.
• Runners & Pertinent Info:
  • SOPHAR SOGOOD (IRE): Has delivered two solid performances on the All-Weather (AW) from similar marks and is now back on turf. He is a reliable stayer at this level but might be vulnerable to horses with a stronger change of pace and tends to be one-paced in tactical races. (TFR 64).
  • ARCH LEGEND: Shows moderate form and appears stretched by this extended trip. He is often keen and is unlikely to suit a slow, grinding pace. (TFR 63).
  • TOP FLIGHT CENTURY (FR): Makes his first start for a new yard after a respectable hurdling spell. His flat mark looks workable based on his hurdling form, and he shaped as if he would benefit from today’s longer distance. (TFR 64).
  • IRV (IRE): Was an eye-catcher two starts ago at Catterick, but he is pace-dependent and performs better with a stronger gallop. He is likely to be held up in a slowly-run race, which could be a risk. (TFR 65).
  • BOLLIN NEIL: A reliable sort at Catterick with proven course and distance form. His profile suggests he might try to race closer to the pace today, but his win record is poor. (TFR 64).
  • STAR OF JUPITER (IRE): Won a weak race earlier this year and has performed well recently at Chepstow and Catterick. He races more prominently than most and will be well-suited by the likely slow early gallop, possessing a better turn of foot than many in this field. (TFR 66).
  • HICCUPS: Could be well-handicapped if he settles, but he tends to be free-going and does not always finish races strongly. He is not one to rely on unless he shows clear signs of restraint early on. (TFR 65).
• Estimated Tissue Odds (Pro Perspective): STAR OF JUPITER: 3/1, SOPHAR SOGOOD: 7/2, BOLLIN NEIL: 4/1, TOP FLIGHT CENTURY: 11/2, IRV: 6/1, ARCH LEGEND: 10/1, HICCUPS: 12/1.
• ChatGPT Smart Play:
  • Win: STAR OF JUPITER – strong tactical fit and well-placed to pounce.
  • Backup: BOLLIN NEIL – consistent stayer with a strong C&D profile.

15:45 Ffos Las – Blackmores Builders Handicap

Race Details: Class 5, 6f (1200m), for 3yo+ horses with a rating range of 0–70, run on a Straight Turf course with Good going.

• Pace Angles: An even-to-solid tempo is expected. HIERARCHY, ON EDGE, and MONSIEUR PATAT are positioned to press or sit close to the pace. MONSIEUR PATAT is particularly favoured by the likely lack of competition for the early lead, given that hold-up runners are generally disadvantaged at this trip.
• Draw Angles: There is a confirmed negative bias against high draws in these conditions. Stalls 1 to 4 (low-to-middle) are considered best positioned tactically and historically. PAPABELLA (stall 9) and ON EDGE (stall 8) are potentially compromised by their draws.
• Runners & Pertinent Info:
  • HIERARCHY (IRE): High-weighted but arrives in good form after a recent win. He wore a blinkers/tongue tie combination and travelled smoothly. His draw in stall 1 is a major asset, especially given his tendency for slow starts. (TFR 75).
  • ON EDGE: Needs to dictate the pace to perform at his best, which might not happen with other pace players in the field. His draw in stall 8 is a tactical concern, making it difficult for things to go his way. (TFR 78). Gina Mangan has a 34% strike rate on favourites.
  • MONSIEUR PATAT: An honest veteran who continues to run creditably. Drawn in stall 4, he is favoured by the pace and course dynamics. He is capable of breaking well and racing freely, which could be advantageous if he secures an easy lead. (TFR 78).
  • PAPABELLA: A progressive mare and a C&D winner who remains in good form. However, she is badly drawn in stall 9, likely to be caught wide or forced to drop in, and needs a strong pace to be seen to best effect. (TFR 78).
  • DARK ROSA (IRE): An improving 3yo who often travels well but doesn’t always finish strongly. She shaped better than her result last time, having been very slowly away. She is drawn low enough (stall 2) to feature and poses a finishing threat. (TFR 79).
  • CHARLIE MASON: Has been disappointing overall but showed signs of life last time. He is on a workable mark and is better suited to 6f than the sharper 5f he recently faced. His stall 6 draw is awkward for his hold-up style. (TFR 81).
  • STARPROOF (IRE): Lacks spark and would require significant market support to be considered. (TFR ?).
  • SPIRIT LEAD ME (IRE): Has been out of form, and headgear hasn’t resolved his issues; he is considered a weak finisher. (TFR 75).
  • PUNCHBOWL FLYER (IRE): Has fallen significantly in the weights and showed minor spark recently. While he could outperform his odds if racing closer, he is considered hard to trust. (TFR 76).
• Estimated Tissue Odds (Pro Perspective): HIERARCHY: 3/1, DARK ROSA: 4/1, MONSIEUR PATAT: 11/2, CHARLIE MASON: 7/1, PAPABELLA: 8/1, ON EDGE: 9/1, PUNCHBOWL FLYER: 14/1, SPIRIT LEAD ME: 20/1, STARPROOF: 25/1.
• ChatGPT Smart Play:
  • Win: HIERARCHY – form, draw, and trip all in his favour.
  • Each-Way Saver: MONSIEUR PATAT – front-runner with a tactical edge and draw advantage.

18:05 Newbury – Daily Bet Boosts at BetVictor Fillies’ Handicap

Race Details: Class 4, 7f (1400m), for 3yo+ fillies with a rating range of 0–85, run on Turf with Good (Good to Firm in places) going.

• Pace Angles: The race is forecast to have a weak gallop. Prominent racers are typically favoured at this track over this distance, and the slow tempo is expected to benefit horses that race handily. ISABELLA CASTILE is well-positioned tactically, while SAARISELKA is at risk of being inconvenienced. MISS CARTESIAN usually races close up.
• Draw Angles: No strong draw bias is flagged, but low-to-mid draws have historically performed slightly better over this trip at Newbury when the pace is moderate.
• Runners & Pertinent Info:
  • MISS CARTESIAN (IRE): Clearly progressive and unbeaten over 7f. She was a dominant winner last time out at Newmarket, and her figures (FS% and Tfig 102.7) suggest she handled the step up in trip very well. Drawn ideally in stall 2 to sit handy, the pace scenario is in her favour, and she still shows room for improvement (TFR 81+ and Timeform ‘p’). (TFR 81p).
  • LADY WINGALONG (IRE): A seasoned and consistent performer who ran a career-best last time. She is tactically versatile and handles quick ground well. The return to 7f and the booking of Oisin Murphy (21% strike rate at Newbury) are positives. (TFR 87). David Evans’s profit of £37.25 to a £1 level stake when having one runner.
  • ISABELLA CASTILE: Best judged on her penultimate run at Kempton (TFR 82+, Adj 88+). She typically races up with the pace, making the weak tempo and her draw in stall 3 ideal. A long layoff (82 days) is a concern, but she has a history of performing well fresh. (TFR 88).
  • SAARISELKA: Returns to a more realistic level after struggling in stronger company. Her May form (89 Adj) suggests she is competitive, but her tendency for slow starts is a risk in this tactical scenario. (TFR 89).
  • BRITISH BLUE: Drops back from a tough assignment and retains scope off a rating of 69. The return to 7f seems ideal, and she is well-drawn in stall 1. She could run well if she sharpens up from her recent outings. (TFR 88).
  • LADY MANZOR: Her recent Sandown effort indicates she has a bit to prove at this level. (TFR 87). Amanda Perrett’s profit of £11.57 to a £1 level stake when having one runner.
  • MAID IN CHELSEA (IRE): Appears to be on the downgrade and has been outpaced recently, requiring a significant return to form. (TFR 87+).
  • RUFF JUSTICE: Looks to be up against it, with weak comeback efforts. (TFR 85).
• Estimated Tissue Odds (Pro Perspective): MISS CARTESIAN: 15/8, LADY WINGALONG: 4/1, ISABELLA CASTILE: 13/2, SAARISELKA: 7/1, BRITISH BLUE: 10/1, LADY MANZOR: 12/1, MAID IN CHELSEA: 16/1, RUFF JUSTICE: 25/1.
• ChatGPT Smart Play:
  • Win: MISS CARTESIAN – strong profile, ideal trip, and top connections.
  • Each-Way Saver (if 8 runners): ISABELLA CASTILE – good tactical fit and promising profile.

18:20 Roscommon – DNG Ivan Connaughton Handicap Hurdle

Race Details: 3m (4800m), for 4yo+ horses, run on Yielding ground with 19 declared runners.

• Pace Angles: The race is forecast to have a weak gallop, which historically favours prominent runners at Roscommon. Front-runners capable of dictating and conserving energy—such as HEES DYNAMITE and ADALIZ—will be tactically advantaged. Hold-up types like BALLYGLASS BEAUTY and INTHENICKOFTIME risk being pace-compromised unless the tempo unexpectedly increases.
• Draw Angles: Not applicable in National Hunt (NH) races; position and jumping rhythm are more decisive than starting stall placement.
• Runners & Pertinent Info:
  • ADALIZ (GER): Henry de Bromhead’s mare arrives in excellent form, having won two of her last three races. She is shaping like a thorough stayer and has clocked improved sectionals in slowly-run races, an ideal scenario here. She sits handily and stays well. (TFR 119). Henry de Bromhead is a hot trainer.
  • MISTER VIC (IRE): Returned from an 11-month layoff with an emphatic Ballinrobe win. While that was a strongly run affair, a weak pace may test his tactical agility, but he is well-treated on old figures and still unexposed at staying trips. (TFR 115). Noel C. Kelly is a hot trainer.
  • INTHENICKOFTIME (IRE): Enda Bolger’s grey has shaped well on both starts this season. He brings stronger chase form to the table, and his Roscommon second in June was noteworthy despite traffic issues. He will need luck if held up, but is in good heart and stays on well. (TFR 120+).
  • REBELLIOUS GALE (IRE): Shaped with significant promise at Perth, where he was forced wide but closed steadily. That form is considered a cut above much of this field, and he has scope off a mark of 94. (TFR 125).
  • HEES DYNAMITE (IRE): Best suited by steady fractions and tends to travel strongly before finding less. He ran well recently and could get a chance to secure a soft lead, potentially winning without needing to find much under pressure. (TFR 123). Usually a front-runner/races prominently.
  • LONG GONE (IRE): Put a poor run behind her to finish a strong second at Kilbeggan over this trip. Her trainer is in form, and she shapes as if she will continue to progress over marathon distances. (TFR 118).
  • SMALLCRAFTWARNING (IRE): Has recent wins on softer ground and needs everything to go perfectly to succeed here. (TFR 120).
  • BALLYGLASS BEAUTY (IRE): Holds course form but often appears flat-footed mid-race. (TFR 124).
  • BIGIRA (FR): Had a poor latest run, but her performance two starts back at Kilbeggan reads well. (TFR 120).
  • ZEFIRO DODVILLE (FR): Considered out of form or tactically misaligned for this race. (TFR ?).
  • EMILY’S CHOICE (IRE): Also considered out of form or tactically misaligned. (TFR ?).
  • JOHN STOREY (IRE): Considered out of form or tactically misaligned. (TFR 122).
• Estimated Tissue Odds (Pro Perspective): ADALIZ: 6/1, MISTER VIC: 13/2, INTHENICKOFTIME: 15/2, REBELLIOUS GALE: 8/1, HEES DYNAMITE: 10/1, LONG GONE: 11/1, SMALLCRAFTWARNING: 12/1, BIGIRA: 16/1, BALLYGLASS BEAUTY: 16/1, Others: 20/1+.
• ChatGPT Smart Play:
  • Win: ADALIZ – well-drawn, stays well, and thrives in weakly-run contests.
  • Each-Way Saver: MISTER VIC – unexposed stayer, made a big visual impression at Ballinrobe.

19:15 Newbury – Pump Technology Wastewater Solutions Handicap

Race Details: Class 5, 5f 34y (1034m), for 3yo+ horses with a rating range of 0–72, run on Turf with Good (Good to Firm in places) going.

• Pace Angles: A strong gallop is forecast, which typically favours stalkers or late closers over this minimum trip at Newbury. However, low-to-mid draws with prominent racing styles—like CONNIE’S ROSE and FILLY’S LAST LADY—are tactically best suited. BANG ON THE BELL is at risk of being trapped or caught wide.
• Draw Angles: There is a significant negative bias against high draws. Stalls 1–4 have historically dominated, especially when the field races up the far rail in a well-run race.
• Runners & Pertinent Info:
  • MOE’S LEGACY: Is chasing a four-timer and is currently thriving. Her recent Bath win was achieved under similar conditions, and she has shown adaptability across various surfaces. She sits just off the pace, which is tactically ideal here, and carries a 5 lb penalty but still looks well-weighted. (TFR 83).
  • FILLY’S LAST LADY: Is unbeaten since entering handicapping, having secured back-to-back wins. Her latest win was authoritative (Adj 78+), and she was comfortably superior at the finish. She is lightly raced and open to further progress. Her draw in stall 6 is acceptable given her prominent style. (TFR 78). Keiran Burke has a profit of £49.66 to a £1 level stake with one runner, and Oisin Murphy has a 21% strike rate at Newbury.
  • CONNIE’S ROSE: An honest mare with consistent recent placed efforts in small-field sprints. Her best form comes when allowed to dictate or sit prominently, and she is ideally drawn in stall 4. (TFR 82).
  • ACES WILD (IRE): A consistent sort who won last time with a late surge. He is likely to be dropped in from stall 8, which raises red flags in this pace setup, though he could pick up pieces if the early pace is overly fast. (TFR 80).
  • ALONDRA: Benefits significantly from stall 1 and the booking of William Buick. Her second at Newmarket in June (TFR 78) puts her firmly in contention if she can replicate that form and lay up early. (TFR 78).
  • BANG ON THE BELL: Prefers to race from midfield or further back. While his draw in stall 3 is positive, he is vulnerable in a race expected to have a very strong early pace. (TFR 81). J. R. Jenkins has a profit of £31.74 to a £1 level stake with one runner.
  • MISS SHOW DOWN: Needs circumstances to fall her way; the strong pace might assist her. (TFR 76).
  • HK FOURTEEN (IRE): Shows a regressive profile with no apparent upside. (TFR 80).
  • DAPPERLING (IRE): Has lost form and requires a soft pace setup to perform. (TFR 80).
  • KAKAROTTO: Returns from a 454-day absence. His class drop is noted, and the market will be crucial for assessing his chances. (TFR ?).
  • SKELLIG ISLE: Is out of sorts and faces a tough task. (TFR ?).
  • IMPROVE YOUR MOVE (IRE): Was well held after a long break and is not obviously ready to compete effectively. (TFR 73).
• Estimated Tissue Odds (Pro Perspective): MOE’S LEGACY: 10/3, FILLY’S LAST LADY: 9/2, CONNIE’S ROSE: 6/1, ALONDRA: 13/2, ACES WILD: 8/1, BANG ON THE BELL: 10/1, MISS SHOW DOWN: 14/1, DAPPERLING / HK FOURTEEN / KAKAROTTO: 16–20/1, Others: 25/1+.
• ChatGPT Smart Play:
  • Win: MOE’S LEGACY – proven, fast, and thriving under similar setups.
  • Each-Way Saver: ALONDRA – well-drawn, Buick booked, and has a solid form line.

19:30 Roscommon – Kepak Handicap Chase

Race Details: 0–100 Class Handicap Chase, 2m5f155y (4350m), for 4yo+ horses, run on Yielding ground with 19 declared runners.

• Pace Angles: A strong gallop is highly probable. The field features numerous pace-forcers and front-runners, including BURRU, LIKABLE CHANCER, and ZOLPHARINE. This setup favours those who race midfield or are held up with proven stamina. A very strong pace is predicted to favour GAELIC DES CHASTYS over ZOLPHARINE.
• Draw Angles: Not applicable in National Hunt (NH) races; positioning and jumping rhythm are more decisive than starting stall placement.
• Runners & Pertinent Info:
  • GAELIC DES CHASTYS (FR): Returns from a preparatory run over hurdles and has previously placed in all three chase starts. His racing style is suited to today’s pace setup, and he shapes as a strong stayer. (TFR 113).
  • AUREA FORTUNA (IRE): Bolted up over hurdles just two days ago at Galway and is unexposed over fences. Running off the same mark here makes him effectively 7 lb well-in, and his stamina should hold given his past hurdles form. (TFR 112).
  • ZOLPHARINE (IRE): An improving jumper who has shown better jumping recently. However, he doesn’t always find extra when put under pressure and could be undone by a scorched-earth pace. He will need to travel smoothly to hold his position. (TFR 114x).
  • ONE NIGHT STANDARD (IRE): Has been performing well over both hurdles and fences. While there might be a slight stamina query at this trip under pressure, she represents a solid each-way play given her consistency. (TFR 110).
  • BURRU (IRE): Typically forces the pace but was well-backed last time before fading. He requires softer fractions to finish strongly, which he is unlikely to get here. (TFR 106).
  • STILY (FR): Lightly raced and showed some improvement last time over hurdles. Although still a maiden, he is open to further improvement and has shaped as though trips of 2½m+ will suit. (TFR ?).
  • TULLYHOGUE FORT (IRE): Has performed adequately in similar events and could plug on for a place. (TFR 111).
  • MALTON GROOVE (IRE): (TFR 109).
  • JE SUIS (IRE): (TFR 108).
  • ONE WAY TRAFFIC (IRE): (TFR ?).
  • LONG ROAD (IRE): (TFR 105).
  • IT’S NEVER SIMPLE (IRE): (TFR ?). Martin Brassil, his trainer, has a 23% strike rate with chasers running between 19f and up to 3m.
  • LIKABLE CHANCER (IRE): (TFR ?).
  • HOB’S ANGEL (IRE): (TFR 102+).
  • GREENWAY MACHINE (IRE): (TFR 105x).
  • MAX TIME (IRE): (TFR ?).
  • MY FRIEND THE WIND (IRE): (TFR 108x).
  • DAWN ESCAPE (IRE): (TFR 108).
  • BONDI BOY BLUE (IRE): (TFR 100+).
• Estimated Tissue Odds (Pro Perspective): AUREA FORTUNA: 7/2, GAELIC DES CHASTYS: 9/2, ONE NIGHT STANDARD: 13/2, ZOLPHARINE: 7/1, STILY: 10/1, BURRU: 12/1, TULLYHOGUE FORT: 14/1, Others: 16/1+.
• ChatGPT Smart Play:
  • Win: GAELIC DES CHASTYS – fit from recent run, well-treated, and the right setup.
  • Each-Way Saver: ONE NIGHT STANDARD – a tough mare who should stay.

19:45 Newbury – Gold Scaffolders Handicap

Race Details: Class 4, 2m110y (3300m), for 3yo+ horses with a rating range of 0–85, run on Turf with Good (Good to Firm in places) going.

• Pace Angles: The forecast pace is very weak. This long-distance event is likely to be run at a slow early tempo, which will bring tactical speed and prominent positioning into sharp focus. Front-runners or those able to sit handy—such as DEEP WATER BAY—will be best suited. PERCY SHELLEY and COCK AND BULL could be disadvantaged if they are held up again. DEEP WATER BAY usually races prominently.
• Draw Angles: There is no notable draw bias over this extreme distance at Newbury, though midfield draws have historically allowed more tactical flexibility.
• Runners & Pertinent Info:
  • DEEP WATER BAY: A typical Sir Mark Prescott improver who has strung together four wins since early June, progressing impressively over this trip. His Newbury win came in a weakly-run race where he capitalized on a tactical scenario. With more improvement expected, especially over staying trips, his 5 lb rise appears lenient. William Buick remains aboard. (TFR 90p). William Buick has a 40% strike rate on favourites.
  • PERCY SHELLEY: Is in the form of his life, consistently performing well. His recent Chester second demonstrated both stamina and versatility. While he is well-drawn, his typical racing style of sitting further back may not be ideal for this slow-paced setup. (TFR 90).
  • GOOD SHOW: Returned from a significant layoff with a creditable run at Goodwood. A step up in trip could suit him if he retains his old ability. His past class at this distance (TFR 94s in 2023) makes him a strong contender if he is sharper now. Oisin Murphy is a notable jockey booking. (TFR 92). Oisin Murphy has a 21% strike rate at Newbury.
  • COCK AND BULL (IRE): Is on a consistent upward curve over staying trips, performing well on both turf and synthetics. He returned to form last time with a second-place finish. While tactically versatile, he might be caught out if held up from a low draw. (TFR 90).
  • ZEALANDIA (FR): Not entirely trustworthy, but he produced his best performance of 2025 recently. The pace and race shape could suit him if he travels well, but his temperament remains a concern. (TFR 91).
  • BARENBOIM: Is out of form and hard to fancy after several laboured efforts. (TFR 82).
  • TRAILA: Capable if things go his way, but he ideally needs a stronger tempo. (TFR 89).
  • LEGENDARY DAY: Has moderate recent figures and has performed better over hurdles. (TFR 89).
• Estimated Tissue Odds (Pro Perspective): DEEP WATER BAY: 2/1, PERCY SHELLEY: 3/1, GOOD SHOW: 6/1, COCK AND BULL: 13/2, ZEALANDIA: 10/1, TRAILA: 14/1, LEGENDARY DAY: 25/1, BARENBOIM: 33/1.
• ChatGPT Smart Play:
  • Win: DEEP WATER BAY – tactically suited and a well-handicapped improver.
  • Each-Way Saver: GOOD SHOW – strong back form; a possible bounce in his second start.

20:00 Roscommon – Paul Byron Shoes Handicap Chase

Race Details: Class 0–100, 3m1f10y (5000m), for 5yo+ horses, run on Yielding ground with 19 declared runners.

• Pace Angles: An even pace is predicted, but this extended distance on yielding ground could develop into a grinding affair. MEEHALL, GENERAL HUBBLE, and SMITTY BACALL are all likely to race handily. The race shape should favour those that travel well behind the leaders and possess strong staying ability. SMITTY BACALL is expected to be favoured over JEU DE PIC given the anticipated pace.
• Draw Angles: Not applicable to National Hunt (NH) races; rhythm and positioning are key.
• Runners & Pertinent Info:
  • WESTERN MODEL (IRE): His two runner-up efforts at this trip from marks around 93 are among the best form in the race. He has gained from experience and was a significant eye-catcher last time at Punchestown. Still unexposed as a chaser, and his 7 lb claim enhances his appeal. (TFR 111+). He is a horse in focus.
  • JIMLI’S CAVE (IRE): Likely would have won last time at Downpatrick had it not been for tack issues (saddle slipped, rider lost irons). He stays well, his form has been franked, and he is a strong candidate if he can replicate that level of performance. (TFR 108). He is a horse in focus.
  • MEEHALL (IRE): Has been consistent and ran well at Killarney last time. He stays the trip well and races prominently, making him a genuine contender, though he lacks significant scope for further improvement. (TFR 108).
  • JEU DE PIC (FR): Achieved his best chasing effort yet when finishing second at Killarney. He travelled strongly (FS% 102.7) but was outstayed. While he may improve further, his tendency to trade at low prices in running and not deliver fully raises a small question. (TFR 110). He traded at 50% or less of his starting Betfair SP when beaten last time.
  • GENERAL HUBBLE (IRE): Ran well in a stronger race at Punchestown and followed up with a decent third at Killarney. He is often competitive but has limited upside. (TFR 108).
  • SMITTY BACALL (IRE): Knows Roscommon well and won at Down Royal in April. He was outpaced in an amateur riders’ event last time, but a return to professional handling and headgear may revive his form. (TFR 109).
  • YEWTREE HILL (IRE): Was not beaten far last time at Wexford after racing prominently. This is his first run for a new yard, and he could go under the radar if there is market support. (TFR 106).
  • IL SILENZIO: Has a mixed profile and pulled up last time. His prior run at the track was more encouraging. (TFR 104). Martin Brassil, his trainer, has a 23% strike rate with chasers running between 19f and up to 3m.
• Estimated Tissue Odds (Pro Perspective): WESTERN MODEL: 4/1, JIMLI’S CAVE: 6/1, MEEHALL: 7/1, JEU DE PIC: 15/2, GENERAL HUBBLE: 8/1, SMITTY BACALL: 10/1, YEWTREE HILL: 12/1, Others: 16/1+.
• ChatGPT Smart Play:
  • Win: WESTERN MODEL – has been knocking on the door and possesses the right profile.
  • Each-Way Saver: JIMLI’S CAVE – was an unlucky loser last time and stays well.

20:15 Newbury – Racehorse Ownership From £25 At racingclub.com Handicap

Race Details: Class 5, 1m4f (2400m), for 4yo+ horses with a rating range of 0–75, run on Turf with Good (Good to Firm in places) going.

• Pace Angles: This race promises a strong gallop, likely driven by several forward-goers including NEWTOWN DUKE, SHAHBAZ, and LIGHTNING TOUCH. This is expected to create an ideal setup for those with late energy reserves and proven stamina, suiting midfield stalkers and strong stayers. Hold-up sorts are generally favoured at this trip and track.
• Draw Angles: Newbury’s draw bias over this trip typically disfavours high numbers, with low-to-middle stalls preferred. Notably, FREE SPEECH and MOAB face tough positions drawn wide in stalls 12 and 14, respectively.
• Runners & Pertinent Info:
  • PERCY JONES: Racing consistently well, he finished a clear second over C&D before dead-heating (later demoted) at Chester. He is tactically versatile and well-suited by a strong pace, maintaining rhythm in strongly-run contests (Tfig 88, Adj 88). (TFR 90).
  • LIGHTNING TOUCH: Lightly raced and bred for stamina, she improved to finish second here 12 days ago, appearing to have more to give. Drawn in stall 7 with Silvestre De Sousa booked again, she is likely to sit handy and has clear upside. (TFR 87). Her trainer Roger Varian has a 21% strike rate with horses running over 10f+.
  • NEWTOWN DUKE (IRE): Achieved a career-best third two starts back before a respectable effort. Returning to 12f on better ground with a strong pace forecast is a key advantage, as his previous wins came from prominent rides in well-run races. (TFR 88).
  • DIBBLE DABBLE: Her latest run can be forgiven as she was held up in a slow-run, small-field race. Her prior Doncaster win (Adj 85+) makes her competitive. A fast pace will suit her best if Daniel Muscutt can drop her in behind the speed. (TFR 89).
  • MELERI: A quirky but talented mare who can occasionally refuse to race. However, her June run was highly creditable. If she breaks cleanly, she is one of the more reliable stayers, though stall 13 is unhelpful. (TFR 86§).
  • FREE SPEECH (IRE): Habitually starts slowly and is drawn wide in a race set up for speed and stamina—not her ideal scenario. She may trade much higher in running than her starting price again and requires a perfect trip. (TFR 88).
  • SHAHBAZ (IRE): Showed a useful effort earlier this year but may fade under pressure in a strongly run race. (TFR 88).
  • NO MORE BOLERO: A German recruit with a patchy UK form record. (TFR ?).
  • IKIGAI STAR (IRE), MOAB (IRE), DREAMS FLED AWAY (IRE): Considered unproven, exposed, or poorly placed for this race. (TFR 83?), (TFR 88), (TFR ?).
  • SARATOGA GOLD: (TFR 86). Course winner.
  • ARTAVIAN: (TFR 87).
  • TARITINO (IRE): (TFR 80).
• Estimated Tissue Odds (Pro Perspective): PERCY JONES: 4/1, LIGHTNING TOUCH: 9/2, NEWTOWN DUKE: 13/2, DIBBLE DABBLE: 7/1, MELERI: 10/1, FREE SPEECH: 14/1, Others: 16/1+.
• ChatGPT Smart Play:
  • Win: PERCY JONES – highly consistent, tactically versatile, and ideal race shape.
  • Each-Way Saver: DIBBLE DABBLE – profile well-suited by a return to a strong pace race.